2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And who will inevitably either ignore or stonewall the committee.

[N.E. Brigand]

Joshua James, a member of the Oath Keepers who was on Roger Stone's security detail on the morning of January 6th, today pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy, and he is cooperating with prosecutors.

[Frelga]

I don't know if the war in Ukraine will be the end of independent Ukraine, putin or both. But is seems likely that it will be the end of Trump as a political force.

[RoseMorninStar]

I don't know if the war in Ukraine will be the end of independent Ukraine, putin or both. But is seems likely that it will be the end of Trump as a political force.

(Hoping it's the end of Putin & Trump).

[N.E. Brigand]

Crime-fraud exception!

Maybe.

"Jan. 6 panel alleges Trump 'may have engaged in criminal acts' to overturn 2020 election"

The House Select Committee makes this allegation in a new filing opposing Trump lawyer John Eastman's efforts to withhold from the Committee certain documents over which Eastman has cited attorney-client privilege. The Committee says that Eastman's "documents should be reviewed ... by this Court for application of the crime/fraud exception. ... Although the investigation is continuing ... sufficient information already exists to justify in camera review and likely rejection of those privileges."

The Committee says that the evidence they present in the filing, some of which is redacted:

---"provides, at minimum, a good-faith basis for concluding that President Trump has violated section 18 U.S.C. § 1512 (c)(2). The elements of the offense under 1512(c)(2) are: (1) the defendant obstructed, influenced or impeded, or attempted to obstruct, influence or impede, (2) an official proceeding of the United States, and (3) that the defendant did so corruptly" and also that the Committee has:

---"a good-faith basis for concluding that the President and members of his Campaign engaged in a criminal conspiracy to defraud the United States in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371. An individual 'defrauds' the government for purposes of Section 371 if he 'interfere(s) with or obstruct(s) one of its lawful governmental functions by deceit, craft or trickery, or at least by means that are dishonest'" and finally that there is also:

--"evidence to support a good-faith, reasonable belief that in camera review of the materials may reveal that the President and members of his Campaign engaged in common law fraud in connection with their efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. The District of Columbia, where these events occurred, defines common law fraud as: (1) a false representation; (2) in reference to material fact; (3) made with knowledge of its falsity; (4) with the intent to deceive; and (5) action is taken in reliance upon the representation."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I was just coming here to post that. Of course you beat me to it.

Hard to say how much of a big deal this is, or if it is a precursor to the committee making a criminal referral to the Justice Department for them to pursue ignore.

[River]

I don't know if the war in Ukraine will be the end of independent Ukraine, putin or both. But is seems likely that it will be the end of Trump as a political force.

From your lips to God's ears...

[N.E. Brigand]

The House has an email in which Eastman, on the evening of Jan. 6th, after the violent part of the insurrection had been put down, urges Vice President Pence (via an advisor) to call for a ten-day adjournment in Congress's certification of the electoral votes so that swing states could have a chance to investigate (and presumably "discover" that Trump actually won), and Eastman even acknowledges in the email that doing as he proposes would violate federal law.

[RoseMorninStar]

Republicans have been spending money doing all kinds of things to upend the election here.
BuzzFeed News: Wisconsin Republicans Paid $676,000 For A Trump-Supporting Ex-Judge To Tell Them To Decertify The 2020 Election, Which They Cannot Do.

[Dave_LF]

I don't know if the war in Ukraine will be the end of independent Ukraine, putin or both. But is seems likely that it will be the end of Trump as a political force.

I think the biggest sign his star may be fading (knock knock) is not the news that the 1/6 committee says it has evidence he committed seditious conspiracy, but rather the fact that no news site seems to think this warrants anything close to top story.

And no one even mentioned it here until I did.

[Frelga]

Yeah. As Isaac Babel's character may have told the committee, "You are a good boy but I knew it the day before yesterday."

Although I really meant to say in my original post that it is increasingly likely, not that I think it's definitely going to happen.

[RoseMorninStar]

From my very uneducated point of view it looks pretty bad for Trump/Eastman, but I've been there before so I'm not going to hold my breath. It sounds like they have quite a bit of evidence.

[N.E. Brigand]

Edit: The White House says that the leader of the neofascist Proud Boys, who posted a picture of himself at the White House today and said that he had been invited there, was only there as part of a public tour and was not invited. So I'm deleting the picture (which had been shared by a number of journalists).

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Also today there were a number of pro-Trump rallies in D.C. whose highlights or lowlights included the recently pardoned retired general Michael Flynn, who told the crowd that Trump's fight to win the presidency goes on despite last night's Supreme Court decision because "the courts don't decide the election: we the people decide." Attendees also heard via video from a retired Catholic archbishop, Carlo Vigano, in which Vigano, who is an Italian citizen, spoke to the crowd about "our homeland" and also said "God bless our president." Plus Alex Jones said that "Joe Biden will be removed, one way or another." And a conservative commentator named Nick Fuentes got the crowd to chant "Destroy the G.O.P.!"

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So bizarre I feel compelled to share it: At one of the pro-Trump rallies in D.C. today, attendees watched a video whose audio was one of Donald Trump's speeches overlaid onto "In the End" by Linkin Park. One reoprt explains: "Just some really stupid trivia about this video: QAnon people love Linkin Park because they believe the lead singer was John Podesta's secret son and was murdered when he tried to confirm Pizzagate." (Linkin Park in July asked the Trump campaign to stop using their music.)

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Late update: the events continued into the evening, and as we have seen so often with rallies and protests this year, things got worse after dark. A Washington Post reporter writes of the Proud Boys tonight that "hundreds of them are roaming D.C., clashing with anti-Trump protesters -- punching, kicking, wrestling. When one fight ends, another begins." Here you can see video of some Proud Boys stealing a Black Lives Matter from the Asbury United Methodist Church and then setting it on fire. And here a confrontation with a lone counter-protester surrounded by a group of Proud Boys turns violent when one of them knocks him on the head and he then stabs one of them.

So regarding the edited passage above, I may have been too quick to correct myself.

Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys, shared a picture Saturday on social media of himself visiting the White House that day. Friends of his said he had been invited. I posted the photo here with some comments about how Donald Trump had declined to condemn the Proud Boys during his first debate with Joe Biden. Instead Trump urged the group to "stand back and stand by" -- a phrase the group then adopted as a motto.

But then the White House said that Tarrio was only there as part of a public tour, which anyone can sign up for. So I deleted the photo and most of my comments.

However, Salon reports that you have to sign up for the tour 21 days in advance so that White House security has time to vet potential visitors. People with felony convictions are not permitted to enter "unless a senior member of the administration intervenes." Even former convicts working with the White House on issues like criminal justice reform, even those who have received pardons, have been denied entry in the past.

Tarrio has multiple felony convictions. We don't know why he was admitted. It could just be incompetence. But it can't be dismissed as easily as I thought.

At a rally in Texas tonight, Donald Trump said this:

"If I run and I win, we will treat those people from January 6 fairly, we will treat them fairly and if it requires pardons, then we will give them pardons because they are being treated so unfairly."

This is him repeating what he did regarding the Russia investigation: the message he means to convey is that those people who don't flip on him will be pardoned should he become president again. In other words, he's flirting with obstruction of justice all over again.

Stop the Steal organizer Ali Alexander and Proud Boys founder Enrique Tarrio have both already shared Trump's message tonight on social media.

Enrique Tarrio, the founder of the Proud Boys, was charged today with conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding. This came in a superseding indictment for five other Proud Boys members who had previously been charged for their role in the January 6th insurrection. Tarrio himself was not at the Capitol. He had been arrested two days earlier, on a charge of destruction of property for having burned a "Black Lives Matter" banner in D.C. on December 12, 2020. He was released on January 5, 2021 with the stipulation that he not return to D.C. He later served five months on that charge.

The indictment alleges that Tarrio and the others began planning for an occupation of federal buildings in late December 2020 and also that Tarrio coordinated with Stewart Rhodes, the leader of the Oath Keepers who was charged last month with seditious conspiracy for his role in the insurrection. The group's plan was to get so many people at the Capitol that police would be overwhelmed. One message in a Proud Boys chat was: "They would do nothing because they can do nothing." Remember that police officers said during the Insurrection that they dare not draw their guns because the crowd would probably kill them if they did.

As noted in the first quoted post above, Tarrio also visited the White House on December 12, 2020. The White House said that he was there as part of a public tour, but other reporting claimed that shouldn't have been possible under normal White House security procedures, because Tarrio was already a convicted felon.

And as noted in the second quoted post above, just six weeks ago, Tarrio was sharing Donald Trump's message that he would pardon the insurrectionists.

To me, it appears that Enrique Tarrio and Donald Trump are currently engaged in an ongoing conspiracy. As I see it, Trump is doing with the Proud Boys leadership just what he did with Paul Manafort: he's encouraging them to keep their mouths shut in exchange for a later pardon after their silence helps him win back the presidency.

Just because they're dong it in public doesn't mean it's not a crime.

[N.E. Brigand]

We have our first verdict in a January 6th trial: Guy Reffitt has been found guilty on all charges.

Reffitt is a Texas man who was carrying a gun on the Capitol grounds on January 6th, created a makeshift shield out of plywood (that he found on the scaffolding set up in preparation for Joe Biden's inauguration), and led the crowd as they forced their way to the Capitol, although he himself did not enter the building.

He later told his own children that they would be traitors if they turned him in and that "traitors get shot." His son testified to this at trial.

The jury deliberated for less than four hours.

[N.E. Brigand]

Some of the people indicted for their activity during the Jan. 6 insurrection have challenged the government's use of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2), charging them with obstruction of justice. [...] There had been some speculation among experienced court watchers that a judge would agree with defendants' claims that this code didn't apply, for various reasons, including the argument that the certification of electoral votes constitutes an "official proceeding" or that the definition of "corruptly" isn't clear. If that happens, the government might have to bring different and possibly harder to prove charges (perhaps including sedition) against the alleged insurrectionists.

Today, Judge Dabney Friedrich, who was appointed by President Trump, upheld the government's application of this law to these cases. It's possible that other judges in other cases may rule differently, but Friedrich was viewed by many as the likeliest judge to block the government from doing so.

Federal Judge Dabney Friedrich - a Trump appointee -- has denied a request by two January 6 rioters to throw out the charge of "obstruction of an official proceeding," a major victory for the Justice Department as many January 6 defendants have been charged with that crime and many are trying to challenge it as not being applicable.

Three other federal judges have since followed suit with similar rulings: Amit Mehta (appointed by Barack Obama), Trevor McFadden (appointed by Donald Trump), and Timothy Kelly (also a Trump appointee); that last opinion was issued just today.

And then there were five. Judge Randolph Moss, an Obama appointee, has also ruled in favor of the government's use of obstruction charges against January 6 defendants.

All these rulings ought to have the effect of getting some defendants to accept plea deals and cooperate.

One of the charges that Guy Reffitt was convicted of today is obstruction of an official proceeding. Ten different federal judges have upheld the government's application of that charge to the insurrectionists who sought to block Congress from certifying the electoral vote (and an eleventh judge today indicated he also would do so).

However, for the first time yesterday, one federal judge, Carl Nichols, dismissed such a charge, in language that some view as designed to ultimately appeal the conservatives on the Supreme Court in a way that could protect Donald Trump and more immediately could lead to a number of prosecutions being put on hold while the government (presumably) appeals Nichols's ruling. (And Reffitt will surely appeal and cite Nichols's decision.)

[N.E. Brigand]

You may recall that Mark Meadows, the former North Carolina Congressman who was Donald Trump's final White House chief of staff, was found by a vote of the House of Representatives to be in contempt of Congress for refusing to cooperate with the January 6th Committee concerning his role in Donald Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

You may also recall that Trump's efforts to remain in power, which Meadows aided, rested on claims of election fraud.

Well now it turns out that the address listed by Meadows and his wife on their North Carolina ballot applications in 2020 were for a trailer which they owned but didn't live at.

People have gone to jail for years for less.

(Although in my view, some of those convictions or sentences were unjust.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

People have gone to jail for years for less.

Let me correct this for you:

People of color have gone to jail for years for less.

[RoseMorninStar]

People have gone to jail for years for less.

Let me correct this for you:

People of color have gone to jail for years for less.

And the reason I've been keeping an eye on the Pamala Moses case.

Just because they're dong it in public doesn't mean it's not a crime.

I find this particularly frustrating.

The Reffitt case, in which he threatened his children, is a really disturbing case.

[N.E. Brigand]

Per separate stories from Buzzfeed and Mother Jones, sometime Trump lawyer Sidney Powell, of "Kraken" fame, is paying for the legal defense of the Oath Keepers charged with seditious conspiracy in the Jan. 6th insurrection.

[N.E. Brigand]

Some interesting developments in some Jan. 6th cases today.

James Little, who pleaded guilty, was sentenced to 60 days in jail and three years' probation. The judge noted that he had previously let a similar defendant off with only probation, but she subsequently went on TV to continue to defend their actions on Jan. 6th, so the judge had done some "reflection."

Little himself seemed fairly unrepentant in his hearing. He claimed the election was stolen and that the protest was largely non-violent.

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The Dept. of Justice screwed up big time in the case of Lucas Denney. Due to an apparent oversight, Denney sat in jail for weeks without getting the hearings he was entitled to. The DOJ says that this violated Denney's rights under the Speedy Trial Act, and therefore that the current case against him should therefore be dismissed, as Denney's lawyers had demanded. But in light of the seriousness of his alleged crimes, prosecutors asked the judge to dismiss "without prejudice" so that they can file new charges. Denney was initially charged with obstructing an initial proceeding. Subsequently a grand jury indicted him for assaulting a police officer. But there was a surprise twist in the hearing today, when "defense attorneys for Denney dropped their earlier bid to dismiss the case and instead sought to have him plead guilty before prosecutors could add more charges". The judge wants to think it over.

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Prosecutors say that there was a film crew accompanying Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes when they met in a parking garage on January 5, 2020. And that the video shows Tarrio saying his communications were being deleted and thus were safe from discovery.

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The Free Beacon, a fringe conservative outlet, has published a story on their interview with conservative activist Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas, about her connections to various groups involved in the events of January 6th.

"Thomas told the Free Beacon that she was in the crowd at the Ellipse rally for a short time the morning of Jan. 6, but returned home before Trump took the stage at noon. Her presence at the Ellipse during the morning was the extent of her activity, she said."

She adds that she's disappointed by the subsequent violence.

However, freelance reporter Hunter Walker says: "Three separate sources have told me they believe they saw Ginni Thomas at the Willard on Jan. 6. That's the hotel where rally planners had a headquarters and the Trump allies working to overturn the election had a 'command center.'"

Edit: The report on Thomas attending the Ellipse event was also noted by Voronwë here.