Trump Charged With 37 counts of Espionage, Obstruction and related crimes

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm 99.999% that that they did not get it all. But it will be difficult to get a search warrant to search other locations unless they can obtain specific information that there is probable cause that there is evidence of criminal conduct at specific locations (as they were able to do at Mar-a-Lago).

[N.E. Brigand]

Marcy Wheeler points out stuff about the unsealed grand jury application and order.
Beryl Howell Says the Surveillance Video Subpoena was June 24, not June 22

This is potentially very important.
The FBI Seized No Boxes with Press Clippings That Postdate November 2020

Thanks for linking both of those. Fascinating reading. The second piece notes the following:

(1) The Department of Justice didn't limit its requests (before the search warrant) to government documents Trump had transported to Mar-a-Lago, which suggests that (A) they believe Trump has secreted government documents elsewhere and (B) there may later be search warrants issued for Trump Tower or his other properties. (But as V notes, that depends on whether they can establish probable cause.)*

(2) Some people have suggested that the reason that Donald Trump took classified documents from the White House is that he was merely sloppy and a mix of private and official materials were regularly swept into boxes. This is unlikely, but:

(3) Even if it's true, then there should be documents postdating the 2020 election, but to judge from the dates on the press clippings in those files (as outlined in the FBI's summary of documents), there aren't.

(4) A conservative reporter said a few weeks ago that the reason Trump wouldn't return the documents is that he didn't want them in the hands of the January 6th Committee. But that Committee would mainly want documents from Nov. 2020-Jan. 2021. So if the reporter is correct, there *should* be documents from that period in Trump's hands. Where are they?

(5) Finally, Wheeler notes that Trump made some important foreign policy moves during that period, so if months of documents are missing, that could have other national security implications.

The first piece asks whether the date discrepency between what Trump's legal team claimed in a filing and what Judge Howell notes (in her order unsealing an earlier motion) means that Trump refused to accept service on a subpoena so that another had to be issued to his company instead.

*Speaking of Trump Tower:

Tucked in the lobby of Trump Tower is "45 Wine and Whiskey." At this Hard Rock Cafe knockoff, visitors can enjoy walls plastered with Trump presidential memorabilia that was likely snuck out of the White House—including a folder marked “classified.”

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I was fairly sure that Judge Cannon would release her order today (she did, after all, release her last order on a Saturday). It is possible that it is a good sign that she has not yet issued her order. At least it implies that she did not have it all ready to go before the hearing and she is considering what to do. Plus, it give the DoJ a chance to continue examining the material unimpeded. Ultimately, however, I still expect that she will try to find a way to give fPOTUS as much as possible of what he asked for - a special master for both attorney-client and executive privilege, a pause on the investigation, and worst of all, giving access to the material that was taken to Trump's team.

[River]

I was fairly sure that Judge Cannon would release her order today (she did, after all, release her last order on a Saturday). It is possible that it is a good sign that she has not yet issued her order. At least it implies that she did not have it all ready to go before the hearing and she is considering what to do.

Or she had it all ready to go and then her integrity flared up and she realized that she at the very least had to rewrite the thing and maybe even change her decision. Or she knows what must be done and she wants one nice long weekend before the death threats from the Trump fans start.

[elengil]

I was fairly sure that Judge Cannon would release her order today (she did, after all, release her last order on a Saturday). It is possible that it is a good sign that she has not yet issued her order. At least it implies that she did not have it all ready to go before the hearing and she is considering what to do.

Or she had it all ready to go and then her integrity flared up and she realized that she at the very least had to rewrite the thing and maybe even change her decision. Or she knows what must be done and she wants one nice long weekend before the death threats from the Trump fans start.

My thought was she's going to delay her decision long enough to let the government pretty much finish whatever it wants to do but then issue the order in Trump's favor to kind of play both sides. No idea how realistic this is but that was my thought.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Um?

[Alatar]

Can someone summarise the current state of play on this? I'm not really sure what this means for Trump. Jail time? Cases in appeal till he's dead? Disqualification from running in 2024? Nothing?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Despite the fact that a lot has come out, not much is really known. It could eventually mean jail time; the crimes that are being investigated are certainly serious crimes that could justify jail time, if he gets charged and convicted (though finding a jury of 12 people that would be willing to convict him). But the investigation appears to still be in early stages, and the current legal maneuvering is delaying it further and could further muddy the waters.

The biggest question mark right is what information the investigators have that led them to take the step of obtaining a warrant to search Mar-a-lago after they were assured by Trump's attorney's that they had turned over all of the classified material (which was blatantly false). Someone has turned on Trump, and we don't know who.

[Sunsilver]

The biggest question mark right is what information the investigators have that led them to take the step of obtaining a warrant to search Mar-a-lago after they were assured by Trump's attorney's that they had turned over all of the classified material (which was blatantly false). Someone has turned on Trump, and we don't know who.

Voronwë, my understanding is the files Trump took are organized in such a way that they KNEW they were missing. I think it's extremely likely there's a careful inventory kept of these files, especially the classified ones. At the very minimum, someone taking records like this would have to sign them in and out, even if they WERE the POTUS.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised that there were some empty folders amongst the ones returned, or possibly some of the files didn't match up with their contents. There may have been a reference number on the file that was repeated on every page of the documents inside. Or non-classified information was found inside a file marked 'classified'.

So, it doesn't necessarily mean someone finked on Trump...

[elengil]

The biggest question mark right is what information the investigators have that led them to take the step of obtaining a warrant to search Mar-a-lago after they were assured by Trump's attorney's that they had turned over all of the classified material (which was blatantly false). Someone has turned on Trump, and we don't know who.

Voronwë, my understanding is the files Trump took are organized in such a way that they KNEW they were missing. I think it's extremely likely there's a careful inventory kept of these files, especially the classified ones. At the very minimum, someone taking records like this would have to sign them in and out, even if they WERE the POTUS.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised that there were some empty folders amongst the ones returned, or possibly some of the files didn't match up with their contents. There may have been a reference number on the file that was repeated on every page of the documents inside. Or non-classified information was found inside a file marked 'classified'.

So, it doesn't necessarily mean someone finked on Trump...

True, but to get the warrant they may have needed more compelling evidence than "well, we know these files are missing..."

[RoseMorninStar]

Yes el, I agree. Someone saw them/knows they are there.

Former top advisors such as John Bolton are saying to the press they wouldn't be surprised if there are more documents at other residences so it wouldn't surprise me if someone has been talking. There is housekeeping, maintenance, and wait staff at these places. There could also be guests at his properties or possibly even a lawyer helping him with his New York case who could have seen documents and alerted authorities. They are far too accessible. If there are (serious) charges for those who help him cover this up, it wouldn't surprise me if there is an informant. Michael Cohen has said he probably has stuff stored at the homes of his children and perhaps Allen Weisselberg's home as well. The more those documents are spread around, the more exposure there is and the likelihood that SOMEONE will talk.

[elengil]

Yes el, I agree. Someone saw them/knows they are there.

Former top advisors such as John Bolton are saying to the press they wouldn't be surprised if there are more documents at other residences so it wouldn't surprise me if someone has been talking. There is housekeeping, maintenance, and wait staff at these places. There could also be guests at his properties or possibly even a lawyer helping him with his New York case who could have seen documents and alerted authorities. They are far too accessible. If there are (serious) charges for those who help him cover this up, it wouldn't surprise me if there is an informant.

Well the files probably *used* to be there... I doubt there will be anything left to find after MAL's warrant...

[RoseMorninStar]

Yes el, I agree. Someone saw them/knows they are there.

Former top advisors such as John Bolton are saying to the press they wouldn't be surprised if there are more documents at other residences so it wouldn't surprise me if someone has been talking. There is housekeeping, maintenance, and wait staff at these places. There could also be guests at his properties or possibly even a lawyer helping him with his New York case who could have seen documents and alerted authorities. They are far too accessible. If there are (serious) charges for those who help him cover this up, it wouldn't surprise me if there is an informant.

Well the files probably *used* to be there... I doubt there will be anything left to find after MAL's warrant...

I cross posted an edit to my post:

Michael Cohen has said he probably has stuff stored at the homes of his children and perhaps Allen Weisselberg's home as well. The more those documents are spread around, the more exposure there is and the likelihood that SOMEONE will talk.

Trump friend and former owner of the National Inquirer, David Pecker, was infamous for storing Kompromat on people for blackmail/leverage. I think Trump is too.. undisciplined.. too careless, to pull something like that off long term.

[Sunsilver]

What really worries me are the stories of Trump destroying documents. I don't recall the source of this, but I remember someone saying he'd frequently clog up the toilets at Mar-a-Lago by trying to flush papers down them.

[RoseMorninStar]

What really worries me are the stories of Trump destroying documents. I don't recall the source of this, but I remember someone saying he'd frequently clog up the toilets at Mar-a-Lago by trying to flush papers down them.

Yes, I think it is pretty well documented (that Trump tore-up or otherwise destroyed documents). IMO destruction would be better than, say, photographing and uploading the files to a hard drive, making them much easier to hide.

Looks like the judge is granting a special master.

[elengil]

What really worries me are the stories of Trump destroying documents. I don't recall the source of this, but I remember someone saying he'd frequently clog up the toilets at Mar-a-Lago by trying to flush papers down them.

Yes, I think it is pretty well documented (that Trump tore-up or otherwise destroyed documents). IMO destruction would be better than, say, photographing and uploading the files to a hard drive, making them much easier to hide.

That was my thought, too! Better destroyed that in the wrong hands.

Looks like the judge is granting a special master.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yup. I have not read it yet, but from what I have seen it is absurd.

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently because Donald Trump has leaked information about the search to the press, Judge Cannon feels that Trump may suffer irreparable harm from leaks to the press (which she blames on the Dept. of Justice).

(Edited to fix weird typo.)

[elengil]

Apparently because Donald Trump has leaked information about the cast to the press, Judge Cannon feels that Trump may suffer irreparable harm from leaks to the press (which she blames on the Dept. of Justice).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The main options that the DoJ has now is either to file an appeal with the 11th Circuit of the Court of Appeals, or just accept the Special Master and get through the process and then resume the investigation. It would seem obvious that they would want to appeal, accept that: 1) the appeal will actually likely delay things even longer than the special master process, even if they ultimately prevail; 2) the 11th Circuit has six of 11 judges who were appointed by Trump, and there is certainly no guarantee that they would win there; 3) the SCOTUS justice that handles emergency review of the 11th Circuit is none other than Clarence Thomas; and 4) there is a high likelihood that the five non-Roberts conservative justices would rule in Trump's favor anyway. So why would they appeal anyway? Mainly for two reasons: 1) the Order is so egregiously wrong on the law (both substantively and procedurally that it could set a very bad precedent, even though it is not an appellate decision; 2) the Order tries to somewhat split the baby in half by claiming that the Intelligence review of the material can proceed, but there is almost no way to separate that completely from the investigation.

I have seen one other suggestion that they first do a motion for reconsideration to Judge Cannon and submit a declaration with that regarding the harm to national security that would be caused by the Order, in order to create more of a record before appealing. That makes a certain amount of sense to me, but it would delay things even longer.

Ultimately, if I had to guess, it would be that they just go forward with the special master and make the best of it, to move things along. But it is a close call.