Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[N.E. Brigand]

I split this off from the World News thread as it clearly deserved its own thread - VtF

Here are two descriptions of a (staged) Russian security council meeting with Vladimir Putin and his top officials, whose video Russia shared today, which is full of a lot of tough talk about how Ukraine is a puppet of the U.S., how the agreement by which Ukraine's borders were set in 1991 is "illegal" (in which case, will Russia be returning the nuclear weapons it got to Ukrainian control?), and how the Ukrainian government has been committing "genocide" in its eastern provinces. In other words, a bunch of lies (to me this appears worse by an order of magnitude than the false information the U.S. presented about Iraq in 2003).

The gist is that the Russian leadership has decided that the two eastern regions of Ukraine that Russia unofficially invaded in 2014 (after they officially invaded Crimea) -- in which, by the way, ethnic Ukrainians account for nearly 60% of the population -- should be recognized as independent republics, which presumably will lead to an official invasion of those provinces (apparently extending past the currently disputed areas). That's what they've "recommended" to Putin, and he will make the final decision.

In other words: war is now very likely. (As per what Joe Biden said last week. Today's video seems to be a performative step as part of a decision already made.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Don't miss the part where Putin presses Sergey Naryshkin, the director of Russia's foreign intelligence services, as to whether he supports the other ministers' position, and Naryshkin says he supports adding the two Ukrainian regions to Russia, to which Putin says, "That's not what we are discussing!" and Naryshkin corrects himself to say that he supports recognizing the regions as independent states.

Oops.

[N.E. Brigand]

Russia's stock market dropped 14% today (that's almost $13 billion), the largest single day decline since the worldwide financial crisis in November 2008.

[N.E. Brigand]

Just yesterday, Anatoly Antonov, who is Russia's ambassador to the United States, said, "We are not trying to take any territory of a foreign country. I would like to confirm that Donbas is part of Ukraine."

Today, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is recognizing the two Donbas provinces as independent countries, and this evening, Russia has started sending in "peacekeeepers to that Ukrainian region.

(Putin also said that the Russian empire should never have been broken up.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Here are two descriptions of a (staged) Russian security council meeting with Vladimir Putin and his top officials, whose video Russia shared today, which is full of a lot of tough talk about how Ukraine is a puppet of the U.S., how the agreement by which Ukraine's borders were set in 1991 is "illegal" (in which case, will Russia be returning the nuclear weapons it got to Ukrainian control?), and how the Ukrainian government has been committing "genocide" in its eastern provinces. In other words, a bunch of lies (to me this appears worse by an order of magnitude than the false information the U.S. presented about Iraq in 2003).

The gist is that the Russian leadership has decided that the two eastern regions of Ukraine that Russia unofficially invaded in 2014 (after they officially invaded Crimea) -- in which, by the way, ethnic Ukrainians account for nearly 60% of the population -- should be recognized as independent republics, which presumably will lead to an official invasion of those provinces (apparently extending past the currently disputed areas). That's what they've "recommended" to Putin, and he will make the final decision.

In other words: war is now very likely. (As per what Joe Biden said last week. Today's video seems to be a performative step as part of a decision already made.)

Further to the point about the whole meeting being staged: it was televised at approximately 5 p.m. Moscow time and presented as if it was a live event, but as multiple observers noted yesterday, you could see the wristwatches worn by some of the officials in the meeting, which revealed that the meeting happened between noon and 1 p.m. Then later on Monday, Putin delivered a rambling imperialist speech in which he announced that he was following the recommendation of those officials and would recognize the Ukrainian regions as separate countries (and also said that Ukraine never really existed in the first place). "Following" that, he signed the order recognizing those "nations" in the presence of the "presidents" of those two regions, but it turns out that their watches reveal the signing ceremony actually happened more than an hour before the staged meeting with the officials was even recorded.

In other words, this is what Russia claims happened:
1. Putin gets recommendation from officials to issue order.
2. Putin announces he will follow recommendation and issue order.
3. Putin signs order.

And this is what actually happend:
1. Putin signs order (seven hours before appearing to do so).
2. Putin gets recommendation from officials to issue order (five hours before appearing to do so).
3. Putin announces he will follow recommendation and issue order.

[N.E. Brigand]

Per this reporter in Ukraine, a lot of people in the two would-be breakaway "republics" in eastern Ukraine aren't happy about Russia pushing them into a war with their own country. Apparently there are forced conscriptions into the Russian army and a general feeling of despair: "people have become hostages and cannon fodder."

[N.E. Brigand]

Per this reporter in Ukraine, a lot of people in the two would-be breakaway "republics" in eastern Ukraine aren't happy about Russia pushing them into a war with their own country. Apparently there are forced conscriptions into the Russian army and a general feeling of despair: "people have become hostages and cannon fodder."

Now the self-styled leaders of those two "countries" (which were part Soviet Ukraine going back to 1920, and which voted more than 83% for Ukrainian independence in 1991) have asked the Russian government for assistance in repelling invaders from Ukraine.* They were sent today but they're dated yesterday.

*For Americans, a hypothetical comparison might be if Mexico sent mercenaries into southern Arizona and New Mexico several years ago, got some of the Spanish-speaking population in those states to declare the states were independent countries, and now is sending in Mexican troops to protect them against U.S. aggression.

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President Zelenksyy addressed his nation tonight about how serious things have gotten, and he delivered part of his speech in Russian, for a Russian audience, asking the citizens of that country why they would invade their neighbor.

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And Russia's moves in Ukraine have prompted Finland, which borders Russia and has long held itself neutral, to seriously consider requesting membership in NATO.

[RoseMorninStar]

*For Americans, a hypothetical comparison might be if Mexico sent mercenaries into southern Arizona and New Mexico several years ago, got some of the Spanish-speaking population in those states to declare the states were independent countries, and now is sending in Mexican troops to protect them against U.S. aggression.

I was thinking about this today.

[N.E. Brigand]

*For Americans, a hypothetical comparison might be if Mexico sent mercenaries into southern Arizona and New Mexico several years ago, got some of the Spanish-speaking population in those states to declare the states were independent countries, and now is sending in Mexican troops to protect them against U.S. aggression.

I was thinking about this today.

And now that Russia's attack has well and truly begun with attacks near Kyiv, I will extend the analogy and suggest that it's as if Mexico had launched missiles to the outskirts of, say, Denver or Sacramento.

[N.E. Brigand]

In light of Vladimir Putin's description tonight of Ukraine's government as a "neo-nazi regime" in his speech announcing Russia's attack on Ukraine, I remembered this thread here from last year, where I shamefully failed to note that Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is Jewish.

[N.E. Brigand]

Putin also said this in his speech:

"To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."

Is he threatening nuclear war?

[N.E. Brigand]

In the emergency U.N. Security Council meeting earlier this evening, which started just as Russia began attacking, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.N. made a point that will probably come to nothing but it nonetheless quite interesting:

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the U.N. charter was never changed to designate Russia as the successor state to the U.S.S.R.

By contrast, China officially took over for Taiwan following a vote by the U.N. membership (and over the objections of the U.S., I might add).

So there's a case to be made that Russia should have to reapply for U.N. membership and shouldn't have a seat on the Security Council.

[N.E. Brigand]

Ironically, the rotating nature of U.N. Security Council leadership meant that Russia's ambassador to the U.N. was chairing tonight's meeting as his country launched an unproved war on their neighbor Ukraine.

Ukraine's ambassador to the U.N. had some sharp words for Russia's ambassador in the meeting:

"There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell, ambassador."

[N.E. Brigand]

NATO's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, says that NATO will have an emergency summit meeting tomorrow and that non-NATO members Finland and Sweden will be in attendance.

[N.E. Brigand]

Short video of an anti-war protest today in St. Petersburg:



That's just one event, and I certainly don't claim and don't know enough to say how representative this might be of Russian attitudes generally.

[N.E. Brigand]

President Zelenskyy said this in an address today: "Russia has attacked our state in the way Nazi Germany did during the Second World War. From today, our countries are on opposing sides of world history."

(translation per CNN)

[N.E. Brigand]

Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida (who in most other respects is a shameless opportunist), is the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and has been sharing (probably with the approval of the Biden administration) information about how the U.S. assesses Russia's plans. Within the past hour, Rubio tweeted:

Russia plans to encircle Kyiv, force the legitimate govt of Ukraine to flee & install “Vichy Ukranian” puppets

Key to this plan is a large Russian Airborne Forces operation

We may see an attempt to execute on that operation within a matter of hours

As I said more than a month ago, any such puppets should carefully consider the examples of Philippe Pétain (sentenced to death, commuted to life in prison) and Vidkun Quisling (executed by firing squad) -- or less drastically and in Ukraine's own recent past, Viktor Yanukovych, who was pro-Russia, ousted in a popular uprising in 2014, and fled his country never to return.

[N.E. Brigand]

Putin's Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, says Russia would accept Ukraine's surrender in exchange for Ukraine pledging eternal neutrality and "no weapons" in Ukraine.

I can't be the only one thinking of "The Black Gate Opens."

[N.E. Brigand]

Would it be better for Ukraine for President Zelenskyy to flee the country before Russia kidnaps him or not?

[River]

One of the buyers at work is Ukrainian. So is her husband. Their families are in Ukraine. Some of her family members fled their village, with no idea where to go, because it was burning. Needless to say, she is not okay.