Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Dave_LF]

I haven't seen this news anywhere else yet so maybe just more rumors, but:

[Frelga]

Don't believe anything until Kremlin denies it.

The rival Kiyiv Post reports, by contrast:

Citing sources in the Kremlin, Bloomberg reported that after the announced mobilization, the #Russian command is planning to regain the initiative at the front and move deep into #Ukrainian territory, capturing Kharkiv and Odesa.

It is possible that the magnitude of the clusterfuck that is the Russian mobilization is exaggerate by unfriendly media. Some thing seem to be confirmed through Russian as well as Ukrainian and Western sources.

* Although mobilization is meant to be "limited", it appears to be total, at least in the remote regions as applied to minority populations - Buryatia, Dagestan, Yakutia, and even Arctive villages have all reported that men are being taken in the middle of the night, without regard for age, past military experience, or medical condition.

* Many Russian men are trying to leave the country, with varied success. The only land border that lets in Russians with Europe is in Finland, and they are reconsidering. Georgia is letting them in, reluctantly, given Russian atrocities there in 2008. Kazakhstan is letting them through. Mongolia appears to be friendly toward the ethnically related groups - Buryats, Kalmyks, Bashkirs, etc. Most of Europe is not interested in the influx of young Russian men, expecting, not without cause, that they will not behave as polite and grateful guests. Ukraine would prefer them to stay home and fuel domestic tensions.

* Lines to cross land borders are days long. Local entrepreneurs are selling places in line, and make money by letting cars in ahead of them.

* Russia is trying to stop men from leaving. They set up military conscription units at several of the larger crossings. This is not being met with approval.

* Several military offices have been firebombed, and one worker was shot. Kremlin blamed video games for that last one (for real)

* It also appears to be true that some of the recent mobiks have already been sent to the front line, untrained, and badly equipped. Many of them surrendered. Who knows how many have died.

[Dave_LF]

Don't believe anything until Kremlin denies it.

Yeah; clearly I/they spoke too soon. Do you have any thoughts on the Post vs. The Independent? They're both pretty rah rah (as one might expect from a country at war), but the former seems a tad more sober-minded to me.

[Frelga]

I follow both, but I couldn't tell you how they are different. Independent split from Post, but I don't know what caused the split as I only started following the Independent during the war.

In terms of accuracy, they are both pretty good. There have been times when mainstream US media like CNN or wsj reported something citing unnamed Ukrainian sources, and that usually was bunk. KP and KI rarely do that, and usually they will say if the info is unconfirmed.

In terms of the completeness of coverage - I only follow Western journalists who have been in Ukraine for a while, and they don't have many scoops on the locals. And how would they, it's war.

I will also say that official Ukrainian sources, when not obviously trolling, are very reliable as well.

[Frelga]

Yeah, here we go.

[N.E. Brigand]

Two U.S. doctors, one of whom works for the U.S. army, have been charged for stealing confidential information meant to help Russia in its war against Ukraine.

[Frelga]

For those who want to hear all sides for themselves, this YouTube channel posts subtitled clips of Russian state programs. It is accurate and representative.

https://youtube.com/channel/UCoAw0n5OyITkmejSCMfmnWg

[N.E. Brigand]

Ali Alexander, who played a key role in the U.S. "Stop the Steal" organization and the events of January 6th, endorses stealing elections when Russia does it:



My apologies for his crude language.

[River]

Who pays him for his schtick?

[Frelga]

Did I say putin wasn't crazy? I take it back. He's cuckoo for coco puffs, hundred ants short of picnic, so far around the bend that he is approaching it from the opposite direction.

Alternatively, he is too afraid of his potential rivals, such as Prigozhin, who controls the Wagner mercs. The unintended side effect of assassinating or imprisoning anyone who could challenge him in a democratic process is that the only threats to his power are even more Librarian poo than himself.

[N.E. Brigand]

Lots of people making this comparison today:

[N.E. Brigand]

American conservatives -- or at least their activist leaders -- continue to align themselves with the evil Russian regime. Tonight the social media account run by the Conservative Political Action Committee (usually just called "CPAC") referred to Russia's "official annexation of four Ukrainian-occupied territories" (my emphasis) while complaining that the Biden administration has been financially supporting the Ukrainian defense.

There was a lot of pushback, and CPAC eventually deleted the post, but still: Ronald Reagan must be rolling over in his grave.

[Frelga]

You can't delete things from the internet.
(screenshot by me)

Screenshot_20220930-191320.jpg (69.22 KiB) Viewed 1387 times

Quite a statement, the day putin went on a threat-filled rant against the West and vowed to break the "imbalance of power."

It'll never not be funny to hear Russian propagandists demonize Anglo-Saxons in terms frequently directed at Jews.

[River]

The Ukrainian Army, undeterred by Russia's referendums by gunpoint in occupied territories, finished encircling Lyman and is pushing to the next city over.

Ukraine also applied for NATO membership. And that Chechen guy, Kadryov, wants to drop a low yield nuke on Ukraine. I guess that's an alternative to keeping up with your rivals' tech and tactics...though if Russia's been tending to its nuclear arsenal with the same level of care and precision as the rest of the armed forces I have to wonder if the weapons will even work as intended. I do not make this statement in jest. The weapons labs in the US come sniffing around physics departments recruiting newly minted PhDs to keep on eye on America's weapons. I saw the fliers up in hallways when I was a post-doc. The systems are old. The people who built them are dead. Russia's in the same boat and while they train excellent scientist if the funds for the nukes are instead getting redirected to yachts, luxury vacation properties, and mistresses the scientists won't be able to do the job properly.

[Dave_LF]

Count me utterly unsurprised to witness the rashists and trashists discovering that they're natural allies

[Frelga]

Putin is losing control of Kadyrov and Prigozhyn, both of whom command private armies. I suspect that this is what yesterday's display was about, with hundreds bused to the Red Square to serve as audience for the puhrer's raving.

Kadyrov is also important to keeping Chechnya under Russian control. Chechens possibly hate Russians even more than Ukrainians do, and Kadyrov himself fought Russians at his father's side before the family sold out to putin. Yesterday, he was filmed rolling his eyes as putin rhapsodized about the greatness of Russia.

This continues to be Very Bad.

But today, Ukrainian army waltzed into Lyman. Literally.

[RoseMorninStar]

[Frelga]

So. Close.

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[Túrin Turambar]

The Kremlin: We need to fight in Ukraine to defeat western moral degeneracy.

Also the Kremlin: Releases bizarre propaganda music video ripping off a 2020 TikTok meme:

[media][/media]

[N.E. Brigand]

Yesterday, one of the world's richest men, Elon Musk -- who may own Twitter by the end of the week -- tweeted this:

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.

- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).

- Water supply to Crimea assured.

- Ukraine remains neutral.

Setting aside the argument that the period 1783-1953 should be determinative over the times before or after, I would say:

Maybe if Russia withdraws its forces from the "annexed regions" first, there could be new referendums held there on the matter of whether the citizens prefer to be part of Ukraine or Russia. But not before that happens.

And it's worth noting that in 1991, all the Ukrainian regions currently claimed by Russia voted for Ukrainian independence. (But it was a close call in Crimea.)

But also: everyone that Russia killed in those regions over the past eight months needs to get a vote in any such referendum.

Finally, why should any other country get a say into whether Ukraine is neutral? And if you're doing that, why not require Russia to be neutral?