Interesting article - an interview with Mikk Marran, director of Estonia's Intelligence Service:
“We tried to inform our partners and different leaders many, many years ago,” he says. “But, of course, some of them thought that we are typical schizophrenic Balts who just scream about Russia. So I don’t know whether they didn’t believe us or whether they didn’t want to believe us, but now everything is on the table.”
Marran has overseen people who have been in Välisluureamet for almost 30 years, nearly the entirety of its existence, since Estonia became independent again following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which invaded the Baltics in 1940 as part of a deal between Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler to carve up Eastern Europe. I have never met an Estonian who doesn’t somehow consider their collective trauma of the not-too-distant past as part of their identity: the Stalinist deportations of grandparents or parents, the suppression of Estonian culture, and the ever-present fear that someday, if they are not careful, it might all return.
He is convinced Ukraine will win the war:
How will the war end?
“Ukraine is going to win,” Marran says without hesitation. “They have to win because for Ukraine, it’s an independence war. It’s not just a regional conflict, and that’s why they are highly motivated.” Though he is less certain of when, exactly, that victory will come.
This was the biggest, nastiest surprise from the interview:
Putin aims to whittle away at European consensus on sanctions and his own geopolitical isolation by exacting prohibitively high costs for them. It’s the one war of attrition he may still be capable of winning. Energy prices are set to rise even higher this winter, now that OPEC has joined with Russia in agreeing to cut its daily production levels by 2 million barrels.
Wait: WHAT??
I have an oil furnace and am still paying off last winter's heating bill!! This SUCKS!! Gas prices have come down from the very high levels they were at last winter, but they are still quite high ($1.60 plus a litre).
Just WHY is OPEC doing this? Apparently, prices have been falling lately, and they want to stop the fall:'
What has OPEC decided and why?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, including Russia, on Wednesday agreed to slash output by two million barrels per day (bpd) just ahead of the peak winter season.
The OPEC+ member states cut production starting in November after gathering for their first face-to-face meeting at their Vienna headquarters since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The group said the decision was based on the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economy and oil market outlooks”. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stressed the group’s stated role as a guardian of stable energy markets.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/ ... production