2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[RoseMorninStar]

So..?? Is this a manufactured thing intended to cause outrage/victimhood?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Maybe not

Suspected attacker of GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin arrested on federal assault charge

[N.E. Brigand]

So..?? Is this a manufactured thing intended to cause outrage/victimhood?

The attacker, who per some reports was drunk, really did go up to Rep. Zeldin and menace him. I would like to know more about how he got there in the first place and who told him (as he claims) that Zeldin had made disrespectful remarks about veterans. And I'd like to know more about why Zeldin's own campaign chair didn't charge him with something that would require bail (or require the local sheriff to do so, which is an action that, I have read, prosecutors regularly take): did she coordinate with Zeldin before making that decision?

Edited to add: Obviously this is not V's doing, but I notice that the article to which he linked, about the federal charge subsequently filed against the attacker, gives lots of space to Zeldin's arguments that New York's bail laws are dangerously flawed, but it doesn't once mention that the prosecutor is Zeldin's own campaign chair.

(To be clear: I'm not at all convinced that the attacker deserves to be jailed pending his trial.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Inside the GOP Freakout Over J.D. Vance's Senate Campaign (Daily Beast)

Sadly, Vance will probably win despite "running the worst campaign you can possibly run."

[elengil]

While I am tempted to say nothing quite summarizes the GOP like this headline, I tend to ascribe this level of hypocrisy to politicians in general.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -vote-bill

Republican went to son’s same-sex wedding days after voting against equal marriage rights

(Wonder what Son thought of that...)

[RoseMorninStar]

Being a practical cynic my thoughts are that politics are a sort of chess game where votes are calculated to give it enough to pass without taking a stand for what one believes is right or fair or voting their conscience in good faith. It's about owning the other side. And yes, it's hypocritical/lacks honesty and integrity.

[N.E. Brigand]

So..?? Is this a manufactured thing intended to cause outrage/victimhood?

The attacker, who per some reports was drunk, really did go up to Rep. Zeldin and menace him. I would like to know more about how he got there in the first place and who told him (as he claims) that Zeldin had made disrespectful remarks about veterans. And I'd like to know more about why Zeldin's own campaign chair didn't charge him with something that would require bail (or require the local sheriff to do so, which is an action that, I have read, prosecutors regularly take): did she coordinate with Zeldin before making that decision?

Edited to add: Obviously this is not V's doing, but I notice that the article to which he linked, about the federal charge subsequently filed against the attacker, gives lots of space to Zeldin's arguments that New York's bail laws are dangerously flawed, but it doesn't once mention that the prosecutor is Zeldin's own campaign chair.

(To be clear: I'm not at all convinced that the attacker deserves to be jailed pending his trial.)

Per new reporting in the Albany Times-Union, Lee Zeldin says the prosecutor, District Attorney Sandra Doorley of Monroe County (pop. 759,000; the county seat is Rochester), told him immediately after the attack that she would have to recuse because she was a witness to the event. Doorley's spokesperson says that Doorley will recuse but has not yet done so, adding that Doorley didn't contemplate the possibility of recusal until the next day (i.e., the spokesperson implies that Zeldin is lying).

Zeldin also says that Doorley told him months ago that to avoid conflicts of interest, she couldn't be his county campaign chair. And yet she's been listed that way by his campaign since then. Doorley's spokesperson gave two conflicting stories: first saying that Doorley had not been a chair, then saying hours later that Doorley had agreed to be the campaign chair but changed her mind after it was announced following consultation with a legal ethics group who advised her to withdraw.

The Times Union finds that "state data shows [this] prosecutor's office has sought bail on criminal cases at higher rates than in most highly populated counties in New York." Doorley's spokesperson confirms that the sheriff's office did consult with Doorley's staff before filing the charges, and that Doorley could sent an Assistant D.A. to ask the judge to impose bail but chose not to. The charge itself is rarely filed (only once last year in that county), and when it is, prosecutors statewide request bail about 25% of the time.

[N.E. Brigand]

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania who only sort of lives in that state, not only has a mansion in New Jersey but, the Daily Beast reports, he also owns a previously undisclosed condo in New Jersey whose tenants are apparently Turkish nationalists.

[N.E. Brigand]

The 538 Midterm forecast is here. The bottom line is that they forecast an 87% chance of the GOP taking the House, and a 54% chance of the GOP taking the Senate. So, with regard to the possibility of the Democrats retaining control of Congress, it's not quite in "so your saying there's a chance" territory, but it's not that far off.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

ETA: It is interesting to me to see that they give Walker a 55% chance of winning in Georgia, despite the recent poll that N.E.B. linked to showing him behind by 10 points.

At this moment in time, that forecast now shows Republicans with an 84% chance of taking the House in November and Democrats with a 51% chance of holding the Senate, predicting that Senator Raphael Warnock loses by a hair to Herschel Walker in Georgia,* but John Fetterman beats Mehmet Oz to succeed retiring Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.

*All but one Georgia poll since May shows Warnock in the lead, but (1) there aren't many polls and (2) 538 apparently now assumes so many Republicans have stopped responding to polls that the results must skew Democratic. The likelihood of the addled Walker serving in the Senate is just shocking to me. There's clearly something wrong with him.

[N.E. Brigand]

Last week, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán gave an anti-miscegenation speech in which he criticized interracial marriage.

It was so bad that one of Orbán's advisers resigned and called the speech a "purely Nazi diatribe worth of Joseph Goebbels".

One of Hungary’s leading rabbis also criticized Orbán's remarks with reference to past Hungarians who "fell victim to the onion-headed theories of race."

Next week, Orbán will be addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference, probably the biggest annual Republican national event.

This is who Republicans are. This is who is likely to control the U.S. Congress.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I refuse to believe that Walker will win in Georgia, even though I understand why the NateSilverians are forecasting that as a possibility.

I don't know if it has changed in the last few minutes or if I am seeing a different version, but I am seeing the Dems with a 52% chance of holding the Senate (and yes, I see that it was updated 9 minutes ago). The Georgia race really is too close to call either way, since they give Walker a 51% chance and Warnock 49%.

[N.E. Brigand]

Trump's endorsement in Missouri paid off: yesterday he endorsed "Eric" for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate from Missouri, and that's who has won tonight.

Mind you, "Eric" also lost. Both leading candidates have the same first name, and Trump's announcement didn't include a last name.

(Eric Schmitt beat former Missouri governor Eric Greitens.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

On the one hand, I'm disappointed that Greiens lost because that is the only way the Dems would have had any chance, but at least he won't have a chance to win the general. Not that Schmitt is much better.

[N.E. Brigand]

Some very good news, unless the usually cautious Wasserman has jumped the gun:



(That said, the final margin is expected to be much closer than it is now.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Very good news indeed.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[N.E. Brigand]

Some very good news, unless the usually cautious Wasserman has jumped the gun:



(That said, the final margin is expected to be much closer than it is now.)

Right now, "No" (i.e., the pro-choice position) is leading by 26% (with 30% of the vote counted). Democrats were 50% likelier to vote early, and those votes were counted first. Different experts I've been reading predict the final margin to be anywhere from 5%-20%. Turnout was very high today for a mid-term primary date.

(But maybe they're wrong? As I've been typing this, the tally has now reached 50% of the vote counted, and "No" now leads by 33%!)

And as Matt Yglesias wrote a few weeks ago, "Winning this initiative would be really good for Kansas, but also for people in western Missouri and Oklahoma and even northern Texas who are within driving distance of Kansas . . . [E]xpect fights to play out in every state, and try to stay aware and active. There isn't going to be some deus ex machina win here, just a brutal series of state-by-state, bill-by-bill struggles." Also, Kansas has a Democratic governor (a beneficiary of the Blue Wave of 2018). If she is defeated by a Republican this fall, expect them to look for end-runs around the state's constitution to ban abortion. But today's vote will make that harder.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Tudor Dixon, who Trump recently endorsed for governor in Michigan, has won the GOP primary and will face the incumbent, Gretchen Whitmer.

[Dave_LF]

Michigan is one of those states where everyone’s free to vote in either primary, but you have to pick one or the other. I seriously considered taking the GOP ballot in order to promote “wrong within normal parameters” candidates, but there weren’t any.

[RoseMorninStar]

I hope we can get rid of Ron Johnson. Please.

[Dave_LF]

I seriously considered taking the GOP ballot in order to promote “wrong within normal parameters” candidates, but there weren’t any.
[ETA: in my precinct]

And now there's one less. Michigan GOP rep Peter Meijer, one of the very few Republicans to vote for impeaching Trump, was successfully primaried by Trumpist election denier John Gibbs. More rotten fruits of 1/6.