2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[RoseMorninStar]

This is an interesting infographic. The map may look quite red, but land doesn't vote, people do.

[Sunsilver]

I really don't understand why that map is so red, and can't find an explanation of it.

Meanwhile, laughing far too hard at this cartoon!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The map is so red because the areas that the support the Republicans tend to be very rural whereas the areas that support the Democrats tend to be urban.

I just mailed out a bunch of postcards asking people to vote to make sure that this person not become there next senator.

[RoseMorninStar]

Voronwë:
I don't understand people who vote against their own interests out of willful ignorance/spite.

Suny, did you click on the infograpic? It makes more sense if you view the progression of land vs people.

[Túrin Turambar]

I'm still trying to process the outcome of this midterm. It's almost as if the "red wave" couldn't get past the East Coast and even then the results were really spotty. It was more like a high tide that left some pools in spots. So...what happened? Polls over-estimating in the other direction this time? Was it the b.s. candidates? The conspiracy theories? The end of Roe v Wade and the consequences any woman would have seen coming but apparently caught a bunch of men by surprise? The tasteless and yet utterly expected (by me at least) response to the attack on Mr. Pelosi? We witnessing what happens when a political party and its base basically lose contact with the ground? If the GOP had untethered from Trump and his delusions about 2020 and run on an actual platform with plans beyond impeaching Biden and other fairy tales would things have gone differently for them? I honestly wonder about this last because in Colorado the GOP candidates that won the nominations for statewide races weren't questioning or denying the outcome of 2020...but they didn't seem to have much by way of plans. They all lost. And our statehouse got even more blue.

Don't get me wrong, I think we all bought the hype about the red wave. McCarthy was basically measuring up for curtains in the Speaker's office. He may even be able to place the order, though the election was four days ago and we still don't know who's in control of the House. But the hype had a source and the source didn't deliver.

Having spent a few days thinking about this, I think election denial, Trump and Jan 6 must have had more of an impact than we (and I) expected. Democrats underperformed in Congress in 2020, but then overperformed in the Georgia runoff only a couple of months later, even though they would have been expected to, if anything, go backwards as they'd won the White House in the meantime. The big change from November 2020 to January 2021 was the election denial and the insurrection.

1998 is a possible analogy - the Democrats did much better than expected in Congress, and the usual reason given is that the electorate were frustrated by the GOP's focus on scandals in President Clinton's personal life. There could be a penalty for a political party which focuses too much on politics and not enough on the electorate.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Republicans are not the only ones to have shot themselves in the feet by replacing a more moderate incumbent with a more extreme candidate who then lost the general election. In Oregon's 5th district, centrist Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader was defeated in a primary by the more "progressive" Jamie McLeod-Skinner, the first time in over 40 years that an Oregon congressperson had been defeated in a primary. McLeod-Skinner then lost in a close race to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Schrader would likely have won easily, which could have been the difference in determining who has the edge in a 218-217 House.

[N.E. Brigand]

Republicans are not the only ones to have shot themselves in the feet by replacing a more moderate incumbent with a more extreme candidate who then lost the general election. In Oregon's 5th district, centrist Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader was defeated in a primary by the more "progressive" Jamie McLeod-Skinner, the first time in over 40 years that an Oregon congressperson had been defeated in a primary. McLeod-Skinner then lost in a close race to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Schrader would likely have won easily, which could have been the difference in determining who has the edge in a 218-217 House.

It didn't help that Schrader didn't endorse McLeod-Skinner after losing. Compare to June 2018, when newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez unseated the #4 House Democrat, Rep. Joe Crowley. I watched Crowley's concession speech that night. He endorsed AOC on the spot, and then he played the guitar solo. There was a little uneasiness between the two of them for a time after that, but I just watched a Face the Nation interview from a month later in which Crowley was fully supportive of Ocasio-Cortez.

Also, the House Democratic reelection committee, perhaps thinking McLeod-Skinner's loss was a foregone conclusion, didn't provide any support. I gave to McLeod-Skinner because 538 listed that as one of the ten tightest races. And it was close.

[N.E. Brigand]

Herschel Walker, having learned that Sen. Raphael Warnock expensed childcare to his campaign (as is permitted by law), said today at a campaign event for next month's runoff: "Why don't he keep his own kids? Don't have nobody keep your kids. You keep your kids. He got somebody else keepin' 'em. I keep my own, even though he lied about me."

A reporter showed that video to the mother of one of Walker's children -- a child that Walker rarely sees and whom, according to her, he urged her to abort (after having paid for the abortion of her earlier pregnancy). She responded: "That cannot be real." And of course, besides that child and his grown son Christian, he has two other children whom he almost never visits by another mother.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I didn't know that Schrader refused to endorse McLeod-Skinner. That sucks.

As for Walker, the fact that there is any chance at all that he might win is indescribably awful. I have a cramp in my hand from writing so many postcards to send to Georgia voters over the weekend, and I am not one to normally get directly involved in election battles out-of-state (though I also sent postcards to Georgia for the 2021 runoffs). I think that it is more likely that Warnock will win, particularly since the GOP is probably less motivated to win the seat now that the Democrats will still have control, but I am still worried about, particularly given the very short early voting period (which Republicans are trying to shorten even more by trying to eliminate voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving).

[Sunsilver]

Herschel Walker, having learned that Sen. Raphael Warnock expensed childcare to his campaign (as is permitted by law), said today at a campaign event for next month's runoff: "Why don't he keep his own kids? Don't have nobody keep your kids. You keep your kids. He got somebody else keepin' 'em. I keep my own, even though he lied about me."

He sounds like he never made it to High School. And i can't imagine the women voters being impressed with his attitude towards child care, or his multiple children with different women.

[Frelga]

Told ya.

CNN Exclusive: US intelligence suggests Russia put off announcing Kherson retreat until after midterm elections

[Dave_LF]

That little (R) after their names means something different than it used to

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This fits under the heading "(and Other)" and is very good news.

[N.E. Brigand]

Jonathan Martin at Politico notes some irony:

The karma of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign launch and the Seante GOP vote:

In 2021, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn’t rally Senate Republicans to convict Trump in part for fear Trump would torpedo their 2022 campaigns.

Trump still did.

Seante Republicans are still in the minority.

Trump is still free to run again.

And McConnell is now facing a (symbolic) challenge despite averting a Trump confrontation in 2021.

[RoseMorninStar]

Jonathan Martin at Politico notes some irony:

The karma of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign launch and the Seante GOP vote:

In 2021, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn’t rally Senate Republicans to convict Trump in part for fear Trump would torpedo their 2022 campaigns.

Trump still did.

Seante Republicans are still in the minority.

Trump is still free to run again.

And McConnell is now facing a (symbolic) challenge despite averting a Trump confrontation in 2021.

Political expediency/personal power over moral, legal, or even decent conviction has come back to bite them. As it should. Of course, they also know what happened to Liz Cheney.

[N.E. Brigand]

A number of commentators are setting expectations for how Republicans will run the House so low that if Kevin McCarthy simply manages not to burn the place down, that will be treated as a great accomplishment.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

Rep. Lauren Boebert, Republican of Colorado, is likely to retain her seat, but it's close: she leads Democratic challenger Adam Frisch by 557 votes, which is within the range that requires an automatic recount.

Edit: Belatedly noticed that I cross-posted with V. (Really. I'm a slow poster and rewrite even short messages multiple times, and V's post wasn't there when I started.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Ahem.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile in the Arizona AG race