2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[N.E. Brigand]

Per Reuters, Trevian Kutti, a publicist for the entertainer and 2020 presidential candidate Kanye West visited the home of a beleaguered Georgia election worker named Ruby Freeman last January and "said she was sent by a 'high-profile individual,' whom she didn’t identify, to give Freeman an urgent message: confess to Trump’s voter-fraud allegations, or people would come to her home in 48 hours, and she’d go to jail."

(I'm going to take a few minutes now to imagine Donald Trump and Kanye West sharing a jail cell.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That is extremely disturbing. And what is most disturbing is that almost certainly nothing will be done about it.

[N.E. Brigand]

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid interviewed Donald Trump for his forthcoming book about former prime minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. Trump told Ravid he's still very upset at Netanyahu by not showing "loyalty" by being "the first" foreign leader to congratulate Joe Biden on winning the U.S. presidency -- "and not only did he congratulate him, he did it on tape," said Trump, adding "F*** Bibi."

(Netanyahu was not the first foreign leader to congratulate Biden.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Politico reports that Jenna Ellis, a lawyer working for Donald Trump's campaign, "wrote two legal memos in the week before the Jan. 6 Capitol attack that claimed then-Vice President Mike Pence had the authority to refuse to count presidential electors from states that delivered Joe Biden the White House." One of the two legal memos, which said that Pence could just not open the envelopes from states whose results Trump determined were fraudulent, previously had been described in Jonathan Karl's book Betrayal, but Politico is publishing the whole thing, along with a second memo offering "a more technical legal argument." The latter was sent to Jay Sekulow, another Trump lawyer who hasn't been heard from much since successfully defending Trump from conviction in his first impeachment trial.

Ellis told Politico that she was merely exploring legal theories.

[N.E. Brigand]

Some of the people indicted for their activity during the Jan. 6 insurrection have challenged the government's use of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2), charging them with obstruction of justice. Here is the relevant law they to which they were objecting:

18 U.S. Code § 1512 - Tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant
(c) Whoever corruptly—
(1) alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a record, document, or other object, or attempts to do so, with the intent to impair the object’s integrity or availability for use in an official proceeding; or

(2) otherwise obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so,

shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.

There had been some speculation among experienced court watchers that a judge would agree with defendants' claims that this code didn't apply, for various reasons, including the argument that the certification of electoral votes constitutes an "official proceeding" or that the definition of "corruptly" isn't clear. If that happens, the government might have to bring different and possibly harder to prove charges (perhaps including sedition) against the alleged insurrectionists.

Today, Judge Dabney Friedrich, who was appointed by President Trump, upheld the government's application of this law to these cases. It's possible that other judges in other cases may rule differently, but Friedrich was viewed by many as the likeliest judge to block the government from doing so.

I dropped the berry in a stream
And caught a little silver intangible object.

[N.E. Brigand]

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid interviewed Donald Trump for his forthcoming book about former prime minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. Trump told Ravid he's still very upset at Netanyahu by not showing "loyalty" by being "the first" foreign leader to congratulate Joe Biden on winning the U.S. presidency -- "and not only did he congratulate him, he did it on tape," said Trump, adding "F*** Bibi."

(Netanyahu was not the first foreign leader to congratulate Biden.)

This was reported in Axios, which also says of Trump's interview (conducted by Ravid back in April): "The former president was fixated on the fact that while the likes of Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Russia's Vladimir Putin held off — 'they felt the election was rigged,' Trump claimed — Netanyahu acknowledged Biden's win."

Josh Marshall, the editor of Talking Points Memo, ponders what that means for the future: "The bigger deal in this story about Donald Trump's absurd drama with Benjamin Netanyahu is how he's still so needy for Vladimir Putin's support and grateful for it. The most important thing we should expect from foreign leaders is to respect the results of our elections. Trump is angry at foreign leaders who put their relationship with the American republic over him: another example of why he is a clear and present danger. There is every reason to think he's currently plotting with countries like Saudi Arabia to drive Joe Biden from power."

For that matter, I think there are still reasons to think Trump plotted with Saudi Arabia in advance of the 2016 election.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Federal Judge Dabney Friedrich - a Trump appointee -- has denied a request by two January 6 rioters to throw out the charge of "obstruction of an official proceeding," a major victory for the Justice Department as many January 6 defendants have been charged with that crime and many are trying to challenge it as not being applicable.

[N.E. Brigand]

"I'm sorry nothing worked." -- An unnamed Republican lawmaker texting White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on January 7th.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's worth emphasizing that the text messages released by the House Select Committee today are from those that Mark Meadows chose to share with them. It's quite possible that there are others he opted to withhold that are even worse.

[N.E. Brigand]

During the January 6th, Donald Trump Jr. texted White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows this about his father, President Donald Trump:

--"He's got to condemn this shit ASAP. The capitol police chief is not enough."

--"We need an oval office address. He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand."

My first thought: this implies that there was a plan for the day that didn't play out as they expected. As I see it, the big reason that January 6th didn't "work" is that left-wing protesters stayed home. (Whoever figured out how to make that (not) happen is a genius.) It's clear the attackers expected -- presumably having been told as much by Trump's people -- that they should engage in clashes with liberal demonstrators in order to give Trump an excuse to call in the National Guard and declare an emergency that would stop the certification of Biden's victory. (I'd also like to know more about Mike Pence's decision not to leave the Capitol grounds. That also seems to have been pretty important at busting up the plot.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently after texting Mark Meadows that he needed to get President Trump to stop the violence because the right-wing rioters were damaging the credibility of Trump's movement, Fox News hosts Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham told their audiences that night that the rioters were left-wing Antifa members.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The whole Mark Meadows text message thing is so weird on so many levels (certainly including the aspect of "if this is what he gave them what did he hold back?") but the weirdest part is why was Donald Trump, Jr. texting Meadows rather than contacting his father directly?

Part of me wishes that this stuff had come out before the impeachment trial, but most of me realizes that it wouldn't have made a darn bit of difference

[River]

I feel like Meadows is trying to have it both ways. He seems to have handed over some pretty incriminating material before he started putting on this display of not cooperating.

NE Brigand: the left wing organizers were pretty vocal about not showing up on Jan. 6. They knew what those guys wanted and weren't going to give it to them.

[N.E. Brigand]

David Corn compares Mark Meadows' description of the events of January 6th in Meadows' recently published book to what we now know from the texts Meadows provided the Select Committee.

[N.E. Brigand]

During the January 6th, Donald Trump Jr. texted White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows this about his father, President Donald Trump:
--"He's got to condemn this shit ASAP. The capitol police chief is not enough."
--"We need an oval office address. He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand."

My first thought: this implies that there was a plan for the day that didn't play out as they expected. As I see it, the big reason that January 6th didn't "work" is that left-wing protesters stayed home. (Whoever figured out how to make that (not) happen is a genius.) It's clear the attackers expected -- presumably having been told as much by Trump's people -- that they should engage in clashes with liberal demonstrators in order to give Trump an excuse to call in the National Guard and declare an emergency that would stop the certification of Biden's victory. (I'd also like to know more about Mike Pence's decision not to leave the Capitol grounds. That also seems to have been pretty important at busting up the plot.)

Actual messages sent (on Facebook) from one insurrectionist to another on the day after the attack, as per newly released charging documents:

"And Mike pence is a coward 2. He had to run away through an underground tunnel and be flown away. We made history today. The capital hasn't been taken since the 1800s. Until we came to town."

He didn't know he was wrong about Pence, but also: what a thing to boast about!

Additionally, that person wrote on December 31st that the right-wing groups needed to be in D.C. on Jan. 6 because otherwise Antifa and Black Lives Matter "will burn down the city and take over all the neighborhoods" and "Trump knows militia's will protect people and property."

And then on January 4th he wrote that there was a "rumor" that Donald Trump would accompany the crowd from his speech to the Capitol.

As some folks have noted upon reading this, previously we have been told that Trump extemporaneously added the line in his January 6 speech about how he would lead the crowd to the Capitol (which he did not actually do). Was his team telling the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, etc. in advance that he would be doing this in order to stoke violence?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I wish I could say that: 1) eventually we will get the full story of what happened; or 2) that even if we did it would make a damn bit of difference. I am doubtful of both of those points.

Meanwhile, I've been searching the U.S. Supreme Court docket daily. There is still no hint of a petition by Trump's team of the D.C. Circuit's Dec. 9 ruling ordering the National Archives to turn over the documents to the Select Committee in 14 days if the high court did not order otherwise. If I were the attorney on the case I'd be submitting the petition as soon as possible to give the SCOTUS as much time as possible to consider whether to stay the ruling. If I understand correctly, the stay ordered by the D.C. Circuit panel automatically dissolves after 14 days and filing the petition with the SCOTUS by itself won't extend it; the high court will need to affirmatively take action itself to extend the stay.

(As an aside, I had missed the post that same day on 12/9 about the National Archives "working with counsel to Mark Meadows to obtain any Presidential records that were not properly copied or forwarded into his official account," so I'm glad I went back to remind myself of what day the ruling actually was.)

ETA: In the course of searching the SCOTUS docket I came across one of the great legal documents of all time: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/ ... of%202.pdf

[Voronwë the Faithful]

One of the text messages sent to Meadows that was read by Adam Schiff at the hearing this week was sent by Jim Jordan. The text read:

"On January 6, 2021, Vice President Mike Pence, as President of the Senate, should call out all electoral votes that he believes are unconstitutional as no electoral votes at all -- in accordance with guidance from founding father Alexander Hamilton and judicial precedence. 'No legislative act,' wrote Alexander Hamilton in Federalist No. 78, 'contrary to the Constitution, can be valid.' The court in Hubbard v. Lowe reinforced this truth: 'That an unconstitutional statute is not a law at all is a proposition no longer open to discussion.' 226 F. 135, 137 (SDNY 1915), appeal dismissed, 242 U.S. 654 (1916). Following this rationale, an unconstitutionally appointed elector, like an unconstitutionally enacted statute, is no elector at all."

Jordan, you will recall, was one of the GOP lawmakers that Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tried to appoint to the committee. Pelosi's decision to block that appointment is looking pretty good right now.

[RoseMorninStar]

Pelosi is no fool.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Daily Beast has new reporting about how Kanye West's 2020 presidential campaign was secretly a Republican effort intended to help Donald Trump win reelection, although by having used intermediaries they may be able to avoid legal jeopardy.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Roger Stone appeared for his deposition, and pleaded the Fifth in response to every question, according to Roger Stone.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/17/politics ... index.html

Donald Trump responds:

“You see the mob takes the Fifth,” Trump said . “If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”*

* Actually stated during the 2016 campaign about former Hillary Clinton aides who had done it during inquiries into her use of a private email server while secretary of state.