2020 Presidential Election

[yovargas]

If they are considering changing them, I surely hope that they do not.

[Cerin]

I don't know that they are considering it. I'm not even sure how the DNC feels about Bloomberg. I guess that would be the determining factor. He is reportedly up to 6% in at least one poll after a weekend of his ads running, so if he started polling near the leaders, I would think the media, at least, would want him on the stage.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

While I personally think that donations are a bad benchmark to use, I can't imagine that they would change it for any debates for which the benchmarks have already been announced. Whether they establish different benchmarks for future debates is another question.

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[RoseMorninStar]

I'm surprised Harris dropped out. Some have speculated that perhaps she didn't have a strong idea of her position on healthcare etc... and didn't feel as if she wanted to continue until/unless she had that sorted out.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think she was smart enough to realize that she had no path to the nomination, and that it was a waste of time and money to continue.

[Inanna]

According to NYTimes, her staff etc. felt she would harm her Senate 2022 run by continuing.

[Túrin Turambar]

She went from being second at one point to polling around the same numbers as Andrew Yang - a remarkable drop-off in support. And realistically, when you're a high-profile senator from the most populous state in the Union it's hard to justify staying in the race when you're polling in mid-single-digits. Particularly when an Indiana mayor has twice your support.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I realize Warren has taken pains to define herself as a fervent capitalist, but the media would love to see her fail and I've seen many instances of them referring incorrectly to 'the socialists' when speaking of Warren and Sanders. So if people do as you (and others) are suggesting and take a warning from the UK election, I'm afraid they will lump the two together as similar 'radicals' and look to the establishment candidates.

I don't disagree that that will likely be the media narrative, but I definitely think that a Warren nomination would play out very differently than a Sanders nomination.

[Cerin]

I agree.



There's a labor dispute that may cancel the next Dem debate, as all the qualifying candidates have said they will not cross a picket line.
abcnews

Apparently some smaller donors to Pete Buttigieg's campaign are asking for their money back, as he turned out not to be a Progressive after all.
donors

Some of the Dem. candidates have petitioned the DNC to ditch the rules so more candidates can appear on stage -- just when they were finally getting to a smaller field. I hope they won't.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic ... ate-rules/

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I agree.

There's a labor dispute that may cancel the next Dem debate, as all the qualifying candidates have said they will not cross a picket line.
abcnews

I would be extremely shocked if they didn't work something out to ensure that the debate occurs, even if they have to move it to yet another location.

Apparently some smaller donors to Pete Buttigieg's campaign are asking for their money back, as he turned out not to be a Progressive after all.
donors

I'm not wild about using one-word labels to define candidates, as it is usually more complicated than that. Buttigieg certainly is progressive on some issues, less so on others. I think he is an impressive young man; I don't think he is the right person to be the Democratic nominee in this election.

Some of the Dem. candidates have petitioned the DNC to ditch the rules so more candidates can appear on stage -- just when they were finally getting to a smaller field. I hope they won't.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic ... ate-rules/

[/quote]

I too hope that they won't. I understand the desire to appear as diverse as possible, but opening up the debates to more candidates is not the way to do so. Even seven candidates at the next debate (assuming it does happen) is too many in my book. And of course Bloomberg and his excessive ad campaign is lurking in the wings.

[Cerin]

This seemed to me like a good summation of tonight's debate scenario. I found it very amusing that the article said, 'There are essentially four front-runners, each with his or her own glaring flaws' and then didn't elaborate! I was glad to see the article state that Bernie Sanders 'is nothing if not consistent.'

AP

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Glancing at the front page of 538 I see that Biden is now listed as leading in all four of the first primary/caucus states: Iowa, NH, Nevada and South Carolina, whereas the last time I looked a couple of days ago, Buttigieg was leading Iowa and Sanders was leading NH. Is that an indication that the electorate is starting to coalesce around Biden? Probably too early to say that, but it certainly bodes well for his chances.

[yovargas]

I've become resigned to the (disappointing) idea that Biden will win. Nothing any of the candidates have done has ever really managed to actually threaten his position as the front runner, and I don't see any reason to expect that to change even if he were to lose a couple early states.

[Frelga]

He's not my favorite - that's still Warren, but he's not my leat favorite. That's Bloomberg, followed by Sanders.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Looks like they recalibrated their calculations for NH because Sanders is now listed as percentage points ahead of Biden, even though there are no new polls added.

Much as it pains me to admit it, it is looking more and more likely that Warren has had her day. Of course things could change, but I am beginning to doubt that she will be able to overcome the handicap of being "a different gender" (™ Uncle Joe Biden).

[Cerin]

I'm concerned about there being no clear winner at convention time. The superdelegates would then come into play, and if Bloomberg is still in, I can imagine him appealing to them because he would be able to outspend Trump. I don't know if he will drop out if he bombs on Super Tuesday. Normally if someone isn't doing well their campaign runs out of money and they drop out, but with these billionaires, the old rules don't apply.

Warren has been written off before. But I think hedging when she was criticized on Medicare for all may have made a bad impression.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And the field gets a bit whiter.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/02/politics ... index.html

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[Dave_LF]

I think a lot of people are only half-paying attention and are still imagining Biden the way he was during the Obama years. They may be in for a surprise when they discover how much older he's gotten (along with the rest of us); the question is whether that will happen before or after the primaries.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Biden strikes me a spring chicken compared to Bernie. I'm really concerned at the possibility of his being the nominee.

[yovargas]

It may be morbid and cold to say but Biden and Bernie are both old enough that we have to realistically consider the strong possibility that neither of them will be alive in 5 years, and I'm sorry but that is too damn old.