The Kavanaugh controversy

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Dave_LF
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Sunsilver wrote:The president says 'this is a very scary time for young men.'
Well; to be fair, it's a pretty scary time for everybody
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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yovargas wrote:
Nate Silver wrote:A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed — but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed.
I think that makes perfect sense. In general, people of all political stripes are more angry than enthusiastic.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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:agree:
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

I was a bit surprised to see North Dakota senator Heidi Heitkamp, who had been one of the five previously undecided Senators (one of 2 Democrats) announce today that she is going to vote no.

http://www.wday.com/news/government-and ... oning-wday

I expected that Heitkamp, who represents a state the Mr. Trump won by more 30 points and who is currently behind her challenger in the polls, to remain undecided to only vote no if it appeared that her vote would be the deciding vote for or against. I'm surprised and impressed that she went ahead and announced her decision before the other undecides did so, despite the potential political fall-out in her very conservative state.

ETA: Here some quotes cited at CNN from her statement:

"...I met with Judge Kavanaugh, closely watched his hearings, and reviewed his available record during this evaluation process – including the nonpartisan FBI investigation which I called for. After doing my due diligence and now that the record is apparently closed, I will vote against his confirmation."
"In addition to the concerns about his past conduct, last Thursday’s hearing called into question Judge Kavanaugh’s current temperament, honesty, and impartiality."
"Our actions right now are a poignant signal to young girls and women across our country. I will continue to stand up for them."
"There are many extremely qualified candidates to serve on the Court. I’m ready to work with the President to confirm a nominee who is suited for the honor and distinction of serving this lifetime appointment."
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

Post by RoseMorninStar »

Thank you all for your kind words & support (from a couple pages back). :grouphug:

I admire and agree with Heitkamp's statement. There are other extremely qualified conservative candidates.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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This is just odd. Apparently (according to CNN) Sen. Collins is expected to vote yes today on the cloture vote, but then announce her final decision at 3 p.m. Why would you vote yes on the cloture vote but turn around and vote no on the final vote (both of which require only a majority now)? It doesn't make sense. But why say that you will announce your decision at 3 p.m. if the decision was already shown in the cloture vote. I just don't get it.

ETA: They are also reporting this:
Sen. Jeff Flake, one of the four undecided senators who could make or break Judge Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation, is still making calls this morning, talking things through on his decision and weighing what he will do.
One possibility, according to a Democratic source who has been polling Flake, is that the Arizona Republican votes yes on cloture but could still a different way on the final confirmation vote.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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If I am understanding this all (which I very likely am not) she is voting to essentially end the debate and go to a final vote, rather than continue debating. If she then votes no for the final vote, sounds like she's basically saying there's nothing more to talk about, let's just vote, and also: no.

I can see how that makes sense, actually.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

Post by Cerin »

Could someone clarify the timeline for me. When was the full Senate hearing for Kavanaugh? Did it then go back to Committee because of the allegations? Has a Senate debate on the Kavanaugh confirmation been on-going?

edit

I see that there is no full Senate hearing for a Supreme Court nominee. Do Senators not on the Judiciary Committee get to attend the Committee's hearing? Do they submit questions through the Committee members? I've only ever listened to hearings on the radio, so assumed it was the full Senate in attendance.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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The full Senate debate on Judge Kavanaugh, such as it was, was today, culminating in a vote in favor of closing debate and moving on to a final up or down vote. That vote was 51-49, with Sen. Murkowski being the only GOP senator to vote no, and Sen. Manchin being the only Democrat to vote yes.

elengil, yes technically that makes sense, but it made more sense before the GOP changed the rules from requiring 60 votes for cloture on Supreme Court justices to only requiring the same majority that is required for the final vote. Because the same vote is now required, most people expected that the real vote count would come with the cloture vote. However, there does seem to be some question about Sen. Collins and perhaps Sen. Flake. The question I have, is if one or the other of them changes to a no for the final vote (but only one of them), will Sen. Manchin really cast the deciding vote in favor of confirming Judge Kavanaugh? That would likely make him a complete pariah within the Democratic caucus. But so far as I know he has not given any indication that he might change his vote.

eta: In response to Cerin's edit, no the Senators not on the Judiciary Committee do not submit questions, and while I believe that they can attend the hearings in the audience, most do not. The Senators on the Judiciary Committee have a lot of power when it comes to judicial confirmation.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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So one doesn't know if a 'no' vote on cloture means Murkowski wanted to keep debating, or forecasts her final vote.

This is certainly edge-of-the seat drama. One can imagine the frantic activity going on behind the scenes, with so much at stake.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Technically yes, but I would much more shocked if Sen. Murkowski changed from a no to a yes than if Sens. Collins, Flake, and/or Manchin changed from yes to a no. And I would be pretty surprised at any of the latter changing. Just not as surprised. But anything is possible.

eta: The other complication is that Sen. Daines of Montana is suppose attend his daughter's wedding in Montana tomorrow. He has indicated that if his vote is necessary he will travel back to Washington after the wedding is over and that they may need to hold the vote open overnight in order for him to vote. If the current 51-49 majority holds, that would not be necessary as they could confirm on a 50-49 vote, but if one vote changes they would need Sen. Daines to come back and cast the 50th vote so that Mr. Pence could break the tie.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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I'll be off in the corner hoping for a miracle.
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Perhaps Sen. Daine's daughter's wedding will affect him so deeply, he will come back and vote 'no.'
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Murkowski seems to have confirmed that she is a definite no.
“He’s not the right man for the court at this time,” she said. “So I have taken my vote here this morning. I’m going to go back to my office and write a floor statement that is more fulsome.”
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Does that make it harder or easier for Collins to announce a 'no' vote? Will she be lobbied until 3:00?
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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*grumps silently at misuse of “fulsome”*
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Cerin wrote:Does that make it harder or easier for Collins to announce a 'no' vote? Will she be lobbied until 3:00?
I would say marginally easier. I am sure that she and Sen. Flake (and probably Sen. Manchin) are be lobbied hard from both sides. Sen. Cornyn (the no. 2 in the GOP Senate leadership) has stated that Sen. Collins has not told them what she is going to say.

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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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Sen. Flake says he will vote yes.

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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Sen. McConnell had lunch with Sen. Collins and came away "optimistic". For whatever that is worth. :(
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yovargas
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Re: The Kavanaugh controversy

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From 538.

Apparently getting accused of sexual assault actually increased Kavanaugh's support among Republicans.
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