2016 United States Election

[Dave_LF]

Some of them do, but (for example) the evangelical types who dominate my facebook feed and have something to say about it have been dumping on Trump and pitching Cruz.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

But overall, the evangelical vote is still going more to Trump, reportedly because evangelicals feel particularly threatened by Muslims and think that Trump can best protect them and get store owners to wish them Merry Christmas instead of Happy Holidays.

[Cerin]

Dave, could you give an indication of what the evangelicals are saying against Trump?

[Dave_LF]

On my phone now, but Max Lucado's post is being shared a lot, for example:
https://maxlucado.com/decency-for-president/

[Cerin]

Thanks!

[Dave_LF]

Here's another one:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/op ... us-do.html

[Lalaith]

Yes, I have the same things going in my newsfeed, Dave. I have the very rare pro-Trump post. But, clearly, there are pro-Trump people out there!

[Túrin Turambar]

My drive-by observations on Super Tuesday:

Republicans

At one point, polling suggested that Trump would win every state outside Cruz’s own Texas. He didn’t quite do that well, but I doubt that he can stopped now.

Cruz has come out with a lot more delegates than Rubio, possibly a hundred more. But he hasn’t had a particularly good night. His strongest supporters are conservative and evangelical Republicans, yet he lost states like Alabama and Georgia decisively to Trump even though the Republican electorate there is both very conservative and very evangelical. If he can’t catch Trump in Alabama, I don’t see how he stands a chance of catching him in states like Michigan. This was his big test, and it’s hard to deny that he’s failed.

If tonight was Cruz’s big test, Rubio’s will come over the next fortnight when Michigan, Florida and other large swing states vote. But he’s obviously in deep trouble – he can’t beat out Kasich for the moderate or establishment vote in the North-East, is still losing to both Cruz and Trump among conservatives, and he’s trailing in the polls in his home state of Florida.

Democrats

Sanders has not done too badly as things go particularly given the unfavourable demographics of most of the states voting today. But he was coming from behind and he’s still behind now, almost certainly for good. He needed to expand his support beyond Democrats who are both white and left-wing, and it doesn’t seem that he’s done this. More specifically, he had to win in Massachusetts, which he didn’t do, although he did come close. He didn’t fall badly enough to be knocked out of the race, but the maths is simply against him – he is losing more states than he’s winning, and he’s losing consistently by bigger margins than he’s winning.

[Frelga]

I watched about five minutes of coverage during which the talking heads failed to actually say anything of substance. So my very shallow observation is that finally Hilary got a photo done where she doesn't look like an overcaffeinated hamster.

Also, Christie standing behind Trump. I've never seen a man
project such a desperate desire to be anywhere else. Or as this tweet says, "When your dead business partner tells you that you will be visited by three ghosts overnight. #FreeChrisChristie https://t.co/trqMIYCyVl"

[Dave_LF]

Poor Rubio. Several of the states that voted last night have rules that amount to "delegates awarded proportionally among candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote." In all of these but one (last time I looked), Rubio fell just short of 20%. So not only does he get squat, but in addition, the delegates that arguably would have been his in a fair system go to his rivals instead. Lose-lose.

[Primula Baggins]

It's true about Chris Christie last night. He looked like a man who knows he's passed the last turning.

Chris Christie's Wordless Screaming

I believe that Donald Trump was talking, tonight, and that he, in fact, held an entire press conference. But it was impossible to hear him over Chris Christie’s eyes.

Chris Christie spent the entire speech screaming wordlessly. I have never seen someone scream so loudly without using his mouth before. It would have been remarkable if it had not been so terrifying.

...

His were the eyes of a man who has gazed into the abyss, and the abyss gazed back, and then he endorsed the abyss.

...

Chris Christie has no mouth, but he must scream.

[Cerin]

That looks as though it was written on very little sleep, LOL.

[Primula Baggins]

It seemed a fair description to me. The writing is over the top, but at this point in the campaign, I can't read all earnestness all the time.

Have you seen any of the video clips of the speech? I saw several on Twitter—with the sound off. The first was before I knew anyone else was commenting on Christie's expression, and it was genuinely chilling.

[yovargas]

What video are y'all referring to?

[Cerin]

I wasn't criticizing, Prim; that was very enjoyable and I agree in substance. I was referring to that over-the-top quality, and allowed myself to imagine that the author's self-restraint mechanism had ceased to function after a long night. Or perhaps some imbibing.

[Cerin]

Some interesting, imo, observations from George Zornick in The Nation (excerpt):

If in some alternate universe Scott Walker had amassed a victory like this on Tuesday night, and following resounding wins in South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, he’d be crowned the obvious nominee. The traveling press following his opponents would evaporate and the narrative would shift to the general election. That hasn’t happened with Trump, and for good reason—we’ve never seen an entire party structure turn against its own nominee, so this is uncharted territory. Trump has precious few Congressional endorsements, and several conservative groups are throwing millions into a last-ditch effort to stop the real estate mogul.

. . .

The GOP is best understood as four different factions: moderates and evangelicals each make up about a third of the Republican base, while Tea Partiers and observant Catholics are each around 15 percent of the GOP. On many issues, Tea Partiers and evangelicals align, as do moderates and observant Catholics, forming a rough 50-50 split in the party.

Trump leads or is highly competitive among all these groups, and is the only candidate who doesn’t have a glaring weakness with one or more of them. His base of support is in the Tea Party. According to recent polling from Democracy Corps, he leads Cruz 50 to 26 with Tea Party voters, and Rubio pulls only 12 percent. He splits evangelicals with Cruz, where Rubio again doesn’t do terribly well, and Trump leads Rubio among moderates 24-21. (Cruz gets only 4 percent with them). Observant Catholics, who are spread out in the larger Atlantic coast and Rust Belt, actually slightly favor Kasich, but Trump is a close second.

There are two things that unify all of these factions: deep loathing for the Democratic Party, and serious concerns over immigration. The Democracy Corps poll shows these two issues are singularly motivating the entire GOP—even among moderates, 79 percent want an anti-immigration presidential candidate and 88 percent think Democrats threaten the country’s “well-being.”

http://www.thenation.com/article/its-trumps-party-now/

[Cerin]

What video are y'all referring to?

Reference is to Trump's post-primary news conference, during which Christie was standing behind him. I haven't actually seen any clips myself.

[Frelga]

What video are y'all referring to?

Do a Twitter search for #FreeChrisChristie hashtag. You'll see all the relevant gifs, vines and surprisingly non-nasty jokes without having to listen to Trump.

[yovargas]

Good god.....that actually made me sad.

https://vine.co/v/igHPD5Ol5mU

[Primula Baggins]

Me, too. There's just no mistaking his expression. He can't even fake a smile. I am sorry for him, with no element of Schadenfreude.