TH: DOS Box Office Watch

[Túrin Turambar]

Well I am not that surprised.
For one, It has tougher competition than AUJ last year for it's opening weeks.
And the weather, I hear, is bad over the US and some places at UK. Which didn't help either.


I think it should still gross around 0.9-1.0 billion. Two main factors I think will be:
~How many "fans" were so disappointed by AUJ that they didn't turn up for DoS.
~How many Tolkien-fans have been disappointed by all the changes such that they won't be having any repeat viewings at all.

And it is the later, I think, which should be the primary concern.

I think you're right... (and yes, the weather has been appalling here!) Last year everyone was hyped up to see Jackson's take on TH...this time, many who weren't impressed may not bother even on the strength of more positive reviews, plus I do agree that there may well be less repeat viewings anyway, since last year fans were keen to compare the different formats. This time round most know already which format they prefer and will just stick to that.

I'm not sure to what extent the views of fans of the book will influence the film's take. There are a lot of Tolkien fans, but vastly more people go to see blockbuster films. Some people will not see DoS because they had a negative reaction to AUJ, and some people will not see DoS more than once when they had repeat viewings of the other four films, but even between them I think this is a pretty small cohort. Most fans will go and see each film in the theatre once, regardless of how it pans out. And the fans are outnumbered by the film-going public by orders of magnitude.

[sauronsfinger]

First, I love to cry at movies.... and TV shows .... and some sappy commercials ..... and even some country and western videos..... its real events in real life that leave me dry eyed.

Second, I had not thought about the effects of the weather on the box office but that does make sense. I could see where in the States it could take a decent 10% or even more off the take and that 30 to 40 million could well be the margin short of the billion.

[yovargas]

Am I crazy or does it look like DoS won't cross $900 mil?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I don't think you are crazy, but DoS will definitely pass $900 million, and probably get to $950 million. It is almost $850 now, and neither China nor Japan has opened yet. Those two did about $70 million together for AUJ (and that was considered low). Assuming that DoS does about the same in those two markets, it would only need $30 million more worldwide to get to $950 million.

I am starting to believe, however, that it won't even get to $260 million in NA.

[sauronsfinger]

The more I think about it, the terrible winter weather has really been a factor and I would guess took off at least 10% of revenues here in the States.

The last time I saw it - time #4 at the IMAX at the Henry Ford Museum - they had some terrible days where the entire museum complex had less than 20 people as customers for a couple of days. Sure - the weather can improve and people then go out and maybe even see the pic later .... but I am willing to bet some never do.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I fully recognize the irony of what I am about to say.

The terrible winter weather hasn't seemed to be any obstacle to the box office success of Frozen, which has been nothing short of remarkable ($347,816,000 and counting in North America).

Coincidence?

[Passdagas the Brown]

Hey, it's freezing out. Let's go see Frozen!

Hmmm....

[Smaug's voice]

Hmmm. I hope no one gets offended by this but I kinda wish they do not reach even 950.

For at least once (since this is the first sequel with a downward trend), PJ may notice that something went wrong with AUJ and stop making last minute/ jarring changes.

[Elentári]

Hmmm. I hope no one gets offended by this but I kinda wish they do not reach even 950.

For at least once (since this is the first sequel with a downward trend), PJ may notice that something went wrong with AUJ and stop making last minute/ jarring changes.

Yes, stop with the last minute changes...just because you can, doesn't mean you should, PJ!

[Elentári]

I don't know if this has been commented on already, but BoxOffice Mojo has comparison figures up for LotR and TH, as well as King Kong!

Here's a quick summary, thanks to Lieutenant of DolGudur of the important figures with the DoS deficit in red.:

Total gross United States after 54 Days (DoS):
$254,497,516
AUJ Total gross United States after 54 Days (AUJ):
$296,541,937 (-$42,044,421)
-----------------------------------------------------

Total gross United States (AUJ):
$303,003,568 (-$48,506,052)
Total gross United States (FOTR):
$315,544,750 (-$61,047,234)
Total gross United States (TTT):
$342,551,365 (-$88,053849)
Total gross United States (ROTK):
$377,845,905 (-$123,348,389)
-----------------------------------------------------
Total gross Worldwide:
$854,797,516
Total gross Worldwide (AUJ)
$1,017,003,568 (-$162,206,052)
Total gross Worldwide (FOTR)
$871,530,324 (-$16,732,808)
Total gross Worldwide (TTT)
$926,047,111 (-$70,249,595)
Total gross Worldwide (ROTK)
$1,119,929,521 (-$265,132,005)

$1bn looks pretty unlikely, and it's possible that DoS will be the lowest grossing within the US...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

But will almost certainly be the third highest grossing worldwide (without taking inflation in account, of course).

[Smaug's voice]

Has it hit in China/Japan already or yet to be so?
I think it would be a miracle if they get past 950, since I think DOS is at 855 right now?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It opens in China on 2/21, and Japan on 2/28.

I agree that $950 million is highly unlikely. Even beating TTT to become the third highest grossing Middle-earth film ($926,047,111) is not a lock, although I still think it is likely.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

DoS reportedly opened 57% higher than AUJ did in China.

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/ ... ?p=1268758

If that increase holds, and also applies to Japan, the two countries together could total close to $110 million, which would bring the total up to $970 million, plus whatever little more is collected from other markets. A billion is still not realistic, but as much $975 million (which is close enough) is back to being an outside possibility.

Of course we have no idea whether the increase will hold in China, or whether there will be a similar increase in Japan.

[Smaug's voice]

Hm, that's a bit unexpected. It will be interesting to see the race in China,

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Saturday numbers are looking even better. 83 million Yuan, compared to 44 million for AUJ.

[sauronsfinger]

Saturday numbers are looking even better. 83 million Yuan, compared to 44 million for AUJ.

Great news! I wonder if this is the effect of the Dragon as the main draw there?

I also wonder about the impact of the AUJ DVD on the appeal since many have already been introduced to it and it was not something new.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Saturday numbers revised down to 79 million yuan. Still very impressive.

[Smaug's voice]

That means it is now at about 875 or something I suppose?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It actually should be pushing $900 million by the end of the weekend. Looks like about $32 million U.S. for the weekend in China, plus whatever totals there are elsewhere worldwide. So maybe about $895 million.