Desolation of Smaug predictions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

yov, you are missing the point. It is not comparing the RT score to the average, it is comparing the average rating to other films to see if it corresponds to what they are getting for an RT score. And it doesn't; not even close. The difference isn't just significant; it is huge. Films with borderline scores that are going in as fresh for other films are uniformly being listed as rotten for DoS. That is not an opinion. That is fact, supported by clear evidence.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Back to 76%, with 3 new very positive reviews from the Daily Express, This Is London, and Sky News.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Four more, three fresh (including one top critic) and one rotten.

[yovargas]

And perhaps most telling:

The Conjuring, 87%, 7.2

What it's telling is that those who liked Conjuring did so with fewer reservations. It means that relative to DoS, it had more "loves" instead of "likes". A current review of DoS on metacritic shows just that (though with only 13 scores) - plenty of likes, not much loves.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And perhaps most telling:

The Conjuring, 87%, 7.2

What it's telling is that those who liked Conjuring did so with fewer reservations.

No, it is just the opposite! Those who liked the Conjuring did so with more reservations, hence the lower average score, relative to the number of fresh/rotten. But many more of the borderline scores were judged to be fresh for The Conjuring than for The Hobbit. That is what is troublesome.

[yovargas]

Oops, yes, I was thinking backwards.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[Dave_LF]

That's why I'm thinking someone somewhere must be doing this:

"What do you give it on a scale of 1 to 10?"
"Well; there were cool visuals and it was kind of fun. Let's say 6. Maybe 7"

"Does it get your official thumbs up?"
"Hm. Well, it's a movie about dwarves and elves for crying out loud. And it wasn't as good as last decade. So no, I can't say that."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

USA Today review dropped it back to 75%, after a bunch of fresh reviews briefly brought it back up to 76%.

Negative review in the USA Today (idiotic though it is), bodes poorly for box office, since it is a national paper with a high readership.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Second predictions (similar to second breakfast, except completely different):

Tomatometer (as of December 16th): 72%

North American Opening Weekend: $61 mil

Total North American Gross: $280 mil

World Wide Gross: $0.95 bil

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It now has a higher MetaCritic score (up to 74) than an RT score (down to 73). That is unheard of.

[Passdagas the Brown]

One thing that really pains me is that an inferior writer of an inferior set of books, GRR Martin, is having his work adapted in an astronomically superior way to Tolkien's. IMO.

In my former workplace, I constantly heard people praise the attributes of Martin's work over Tolkien's, largely in reference to the difference in quality between the Game of Thrones TV series and the first Hobbit film.

The beauty and wonder of Tolkien's books deserved a far more compelling treatment. Jackson doesn't have a lyrical bone in his body, and Tolkien's legacy has suffered as a result.

[yovargas]

It now has a higher MetaCritic score (up to 74) than an RT score (down to 73). That is unheard of.

Wow, yeah, I can't recall ever seeing that before.

Jackson doesn't have a lyrical bone in his body...

But what leavens this frustration for me is that there are some scenes "shot through" PJ's canvas, which are wonderful and sometimes sublime. The FOTR prologue, the early scenes of Gandalf's cart shambling through the Shire, the reveal of Dwarrowdelf, Boromir's death, Frodo and Sam looking out over the Emyn Muil, Gandalf and the Balrog's plunge into the depths of Moria with that exquisite long shot of the deep lake, the Rohirrim on the plain, Éomer's confrontation with the three hunters, the glorious image of Meduseld, Theodred's funeral (my absolute favorite), Théoden lamenting at Theodred's grave as the sun begins to set, Gollum's end-of-TTT monologue, the lighting of the beacons (perfect), Gandalf riding out onto the Pelennor to drive away the Nazgûl with a shaft of white light (my single favorite shot across all three films), the eerily august glow as the forces of Mordor make their way into the outer rings of Minas Tirith killing as they go, the elemental beauty of Frodo and Sam on the slopes of Mt. Doom as a rain of fire descends in the background, the look on the faces of the fellowship as they realize Sauron has fallen, but also that Frodo and Sam have likely been sacrificed, the sublime flight of the eagles, the perfect "good morning" scene, Thranduil on a massive elk (love that touch), Bilbo's hilarious overly-polite attempts at managing the dwarves, the Battle of Azanulbizar (possibly my favorite "battle" across all four films), and again, the eagle rescue, with that gorgeous long shot of them flying over the hills, and finally, that wonderful lingering shot of the thrush flying toward the mountain, and then tapping snails against the rock.

These are all great moments, and some of them are my favorite moments in cinema. So I am grateful for that.

[sauronsfinger]

USA Today review dropped it back to 75%, after a bunch of fresh reviews briefly brought it back up to 76%.

Negative review in the USA Today (idiotic though it is), bodes poorly for box office, since it is a national paper with a high readership.

There are films which are bad review proof so to speak. Given the audience that is already established for Middle-earth/Jackson films, I suspect we would have to see almost all really bad reviews on a consistent basis across the world for it to really have any measurable box office effect.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Down to 72%. Still missing the very positive LA Times and Entertainment Weekly reviews, however.

But Metacritic down to 69 with the ridiculous NY Post review added as the first negative one included there.

[Smaug's voice]

Sadly, with the flurry of negative reviews on RT, I don't think now DOS will end up much better than AUJ there. 70-71 at the most, though I am expecting somewhere about 68%.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, it made it back up to 74%, and currently is at 73%, with at least three major positive reviews (LA Times, Entertainment Weekly, and Richard Roeper) still missing. I'm going to stick with my "second prediction" of 72%.

[Passdagas the Brown]

It now has a higher MetaCritic score (up to 74) than an RT score (down to 73). That is unheard of.

Wow, yeah, I can't recall ever seeing that before.

Jackson doesn't have a lyrical bone in his body...

But what leavens this frustration for me is that there are some scenes "shot through" PJ's canvas, which are wonderful and sometimes sublime. The FOTR prologue, the early scenes of Gandalf's cart shambling through the Shire, the reveal of Dwarrowdelf, Boromir's death, Frodo and Sam looking out over the Emyn Muil, Gandalf and the Balrog's plunge into the depths of Moria with that exquisite long shot of the deep lake, the Rohirrim on the plain, Éomer's confrontation with the three hunters, the glorious image of Meduseld, Theodred's funeral (my absolute favorite), Théoden lamenting at Theodred's grave as the sun begins to set, Gollum's end-of-TTT monologue, the lighting of the beacons (perfect), Gandalf riding out onto the Pelennor to drive away the Nazgûl with a shaft of white light (my single favorite shot across all three films), the eerily august glow as the forces of Mordor make their way into the outer rings of Minas Tirith killing as they go, the elemental beauty of Frodo and Sam on the slopes of Mt. Doom as a rain of fire descends in the background, the look on the faces of the fellowship as they realize Sauron has fallen, but also that Frodo and Sam have likely been sacrificed, the sublime flight of the eagles, the perfect "good morning" scene, Thranduil on a massive elk (love that touch), Bilbo's hilarious overly-polite attempts at managing the dwarves, the Battle of Azanulbizar (possibly my favorite "battle" across all four films), and again, the eagle rescue, with that gorgeous long shot of them flying over the hills, and finally, that wonderful lingering shot of the thrush flying toward the mountain, and then tapping snails against the rock.

These are all great moments, and some of them are my favorite moments in cinema. So I am grateful for that.

How dare you trap me in a contradiction using my own words????

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Then again, right back down to 71% with two new negative reviews.

[yovargas]

Just talking you off that ledger by sharing the opinion of someone I know you respect.