The 2012 US Election

[nerdanel]

Did Romney come out during the debate?? You'd think that'd be bigger news today...

[Holbytla]

I watched the debate. I wasn't surprised by anything I heard, nor did I really learn anything new. As I expected, Obama won. Not devastatingly, but pretty soundly.

Generally a sitting president has it all over a governor in terms of foreign policy, but even with that I don't think Romney did particularly well. He performed better than I thought he would, but I had low expectations. Whatever the guy lacks, brains isn't one of them.

More than ever last night, I got the feeling that Romney doesn't fit very well into either party. He fits well with the republican base in certain aspects, but I am finding it difficult to really call him a republican. I suspect the republican party is finding it difficult as well.
He certainly isn't a democrat either though.
I just think he is trying to be "not Obama". He is trying to win because he believes he has something to offer. I do think he has something to offer, but you can't be all things to all people.

In any case the debates are done and I am glad for that. Silly season is almost over as well.

I think three debates is kind of pushing things. We've heard the same rhetoric enough at this point.

[Dave_LF]

I'm putting this in the election thread since that's what it's about, but my real reason for posting it at all is that it's a superb example of how to present quantitative data visually. The amount of information contained in this one chart is huge, and it's easy to parse. I'm almost in awe .



Edit: From 538, as Voronwë pointed out. Full article here.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That chart, of course, comes from Nate Silver's 538 Election Blog.

[Dave_LF]

I guess that's kind of an important thing to mention.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You were clearly mesmerized by its perfection.

[Primula Baggins]

Here's an interesting article about the possible effect of Hurricane Sandy on voting and polls.

One point I think is significant is that bad weather and power outages are likely to have worse effects, for longer, in rural areas, which are overwhelmingly Republican in the affected states. The party with higher turnout for early voting will also have an advantage—people who've already voted can't be kept from the polls by weather. Which party that is varies by state, apparently.

In other news, Mr. Prim and I have voted. I still can't believe that only one other state has gone over to a vote-by-mail system. It eliminates lines at polling places and the chance of voter intimidation. There is a paper record for every single vote. People don't have to miss work or find child care in order to vote. The weather doesn't matter. No ID is necessary (you sign the outer ballot envelope, and your signature is compared with your registration record; if it doesn't match, they set the ballot aside and contact you to find out what's up). Your address is "checked" every election because you don't receive a ballot if you aren't where they think you are. And turnout is consistently very high, even in primaries.

[Dave_LF]

Anything that makes it easier for people to vote works against Republicans, which is why they oppose such measures.

[Primula Baggins]

Some Republicans, yes—those with vested interests in controlling the election outcome beyond their own individual votes. But I can't believe the ordinary conservative voter would object to letting everyone exercise their constitutional rights. This makes voting easier for everyone, after all, which includes an awful lot of Republican voters out West who have to drive a long way over bad roads in bad weather to vote.

[Dave_LF]

I agree; I guess I didn't make it clear, but I meant the Republican establishment/professional Republicans, not the people who vote for them.

[N.E. Brigand]

The president spoke at a rally in Cleveland last night, at our smaller airport, which sits downtown right next to Lake Erie; this was the concluding event of a "non-stop" two-day campaign tour. I was there. It was exciting (eventually), if formulaic.

I was on my feet for almost five hours. It was a gorgeous afternoon and evening, fortunately. (Probably global warming.) Gates opened at 5:30 p.m. When I arrived at 5:15 p.m., after a twenty-minute walk from work, there were several thousand people in front of me. (Total attendance was later reported at 12,000.) I went through the gates and metal detectors at about 6:00 p.m. There were bleachers at left for about 1,000 people, and they were full. I took my place in the crowd, about 25 "rows" --though it was nothing so organized as that-- back from the stage. Journalists were on a separate bleacher at right. By evening's end, there were twice as many rows behind me.

For most of the next two-and-a-half hours, there was only pop music (rock and country) playing through large speaker arrays. At about 6:30 p.m., I heard from some people nearby checking their phones that the president wasn't due until 8:30 p.m. At 7:15 p.m., a PA announcer introduced three people I've never heard of, to lead the crowd in the Pledge of Allegiance, to deliver an invocation (non-sectarian but monotheistic), and to sing the "Star Spangled Banner" (badly). During the last, I was distracted by calls to my left for a medic; I never found out what happened. Then two Democratic Congresswomen spoke. Both were redistricted following the 2010 Census. Betty Sutton, formerly OH-13 is now facing Congressman Jim Renacci in OH-16. She spoke fairly well. Marci Kaptur of Toledo, who defeated Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland in the primary after he was moved into her district, is facing Samuel Wurzelbacher (aka Joe the Plumber). She is a poor speaker.

Then we waited for another 45 minutes of music. It began to get a little foggy; I worried that visibility might worsen sufficiently to cancel the event. But around a quarter past eight, folks on the bleachers nearest the runway began to cheer: they could see Air Force One (which was actually one of the planes that usually serves as Air Force Two) touching down in the distance. Within a minute, we could all see the plane taxi past heading to our left. Then it turned round and passed halfway across again before turning almost right at the crowd, much slower of course, and then continued turning until it was positioned at roughly a 45 degree angle to the crowed, with the left side facing us. After a few minutes' delay a stairway was wheeled to the second door from the front, from which someone in uniform stepped out to properly connect it. After another few minutes, the president stepped out, waved, and bounded across the runway to the stage.

During all this time, the music was playing, louder than before. It was quite an entrance. Almost everyone had their arms up to take pictures with their phones (or occasionally a tablet). In fact, a few people left almost as soon as the president began speaking; I heard one woman say she had the picture she wanted and now could leave.

The president's speech was basically the same one that he's been giving all week. It ran about 25 minutes, and from news reports, I gather that more mention was made here than elsewhere of the auto industry. It was very engaging, but the president was quite hoarse. After his speech, he shook hands for at least ten minutes. Because many people were leaving, I was able to move forward, but got no closer than ten rows of people from the front.

Curiously, apart from the roar at the president's arrival, the audience seemed to cheer loudest when he spoke of repealing "Don't Ask Don't Tell" and when he affirmed his position on abortion. I was also interested to find that at least two-thirds of them indicated they had already voted, and at least half of the rest expressed their intention of voting early. (The president himself had voted in Chicago earlier yesterday.)

You can see a picture of the event here:

http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/201 ... s-stamina/

(Edited to fix direction of plane travel.)

[River]

Why bother with attending a campaign rally if you've already voted?

Mail-in's an option in my state. I prefer going to the polls and dropping my ballot in a box, though. I'm currently trying to decide if I should just go vote early and get it done or be a romantic and go to my polling place on Election Day. In 2008 I voted early because I heard Election Day was going to be a circus and I was in the midst of writing my thesis and didn't have time to spend a morning in line. Also, there's early voting on campus and since I was on campus more than I was home it just made sense. This year, I'm not thesising.

It was pretty fun, though, on Election Night, hopping between the lab and the viewing party in the big auditorium. I was in the lab when the election was called but I knew who won because the entire city started screaming.

And, almost four years later, it just occurred to me that I gave my entire defense talk with a "I Voted!" sticker on the lid of my laptop. Fine display of professionalism there. Hopefully, everyone was too distracted by River wearing a suit (!!!!) to notice.

Colorado's got some weirdness going on with getting the elections organized this year. There was an effort to purge the voter rolls (no non-citizens were found...maybe because most people in this state register when they get their driver's licenses and to get your license you need to prove either citizenship or immigration status). And more recently some other issues have cropped up that have left county clerks wondering if our Secretary of State is incompetent or maybe just incompetent like a fox. There was also much squawking about how my county puts serial numbers on the ballots so they could, theoretically, be traced back to individual voters. This is done to help keep track of provisional ballots, but if someone were so inclined your secret ballot wouldn't be so secret anymore. That went to court. The court ruled we don't have a right to a secret ballot anyway and thus the numbered ballots were fine. Ice water meet spine. But, on the brighter side, we didn't need to get our ballots altered days before early voting was set to start...

[Frelga]

We have mail-in ballots as an option, which is great for my father-in-law, who has trouble getting around, and my dad, who can't leave work during the day. I like going to the polling place. I'll probably drive over in the early afternoon, as it's close enough to my work.

On the other hand, nothing but his honesty prevents my FiL from mailing his late wife's ballot in. And there's the possibility of a somewhat bizarre scenario in which someone passes on after mailing their ballot but before the election day.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks for the report, N.E.B. That must have been an interesting experience. Your state is where it's at these days (although River's state is not far behind).

I voted last week by mail. There is something to be said for going to the polling place on election day and casting your vote, but it is just too easy for me to have an emergency that gets me bogged down at work.

[River]

We're a toss-up but we have 9 electoral votes to Ohio's 18. If Obama carries Ohio he can lose us and still win the election. But whichever way CO swings, I hope we do it cleanly and concisely. I don't want my state to be the next Florida.

Watch us go for Romney while simultaneously legalizing pot.

[Primula Baggins]

Ooo, we're going to legalize pot, too.

Or maybe not. But it's always on there somewhere.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

According to Nate Silver, Colorado is the sixth most likely state to be the tipping point to determine the election, after Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada and Iowa. But Ohio is at 49%, whereas WI is next at 9.9%.

Interestingly, while most news sites seem to focus on the fact that Gallup and other daily tracking polls have been showing a signficant leave for Romney, 538 has been showing a steadily increasing liklihood of Obama winning, up to 74.4%, 13.3% higher than it was two weeks ago today. That is presumably due primarily to the president's persistent small lead in Ohio.

(Of course, who knows whether the fact -- if it is even a fact -- that Tagg Romney, Mitt Romney's son, owns a part of the business that makes the voting machines that are use in Ohio will have any influence on that state's vote. I certainly hope not, and I would think that any right-thinking person would hope not regardless of their political affiliation.)

[River]

(Of course, who knows whether the fact -- if it is even a fact -- that Tagg Romney, Mitt Romney's son, owns a part of the business that makes the voting machines that are use in Ohio will have any influence on that state's vote. I certainly hope not, and I would think that any right-thinking person would hope not regardless of their political affiliation.)

Me too. Neither side needs those kinds of whispers. But I've only seen that discussed on sites like DailyKos and AlterNet so I'm putting it in the hysteria bin.

[Holbytla]

We have no early voting, unless you need to absentee vote. Which I guess you can do if you think you may have an issue getting to the polls.

We have a medicinal use of marijuana question on the ballot as well. It's likely to pass, and I can see it being abused and causing headaches for a number of people, at least initially.
Until the Supreme Court makes some kind of ruling regarding the use of medical marijuana and drug testing in the workplace, the law is incomplete in my eyes anyway.

As for the polling numbers, I can see Romney winning some of the battleground states, but I can't see any way he will win enough to win the election.

[River]

We have a medicinal use of marijuana question on the ballot as well. It's likely to pass, and I can see it being abused and causing headaches for a number of people, at least initially.

Given the experience in Colorado, if it passes, Mass will be in for an interesting ride for a couple years as businesses proliferate and get culled by both capitalism and the regulations the state, county, and municipal governments impose (i.e., how close a dispensary can be to a school, whether or not ex-felons can operate one, etc.). There will also be doctors who just hand out pot prescriptions to anyone who walks through the door so you might discover that there are shocking numbers of 20-somethings in chronic pain. Also, here in Boulder, the local media went through a spell where they delighted in reporting any crime that involved a dispensary, giving the impression that the businesses were break-in magnets. Finally, our police chief issued a statement that MMJ dispensaries weren't any more attractive to criminals than any other business and would the press please reflect that in their reporting.

As for the impending confrontation with the Feds and the supremacy clause, well, measures like these will force the issue. Our drug laws need to change.