Australian Federal Election: The day after

[Túrin Turambar]

The Queensland floods have just gotten catastrophically worse. The waters have suddenly hit the heavily-populated south-east of the state – a wall of water described as an ‘inland tsunami’ has swept through Toowoomba, killing eight and leaving 72 missing. I’ve read some sources that say that the wave was seven metres (twenty-one feet) high. Toowoomba is one of Australia’s largest inland towns, with a population of 120,000, and it’s only 130km to the west of Brisbane. The flooded Mary River has also inundated Gympie – the last town to the north of the south-east corner.

The Wivenhoe Dam is at its limit, and there’s now flood warnings for dozens of Brisbane suburbs. The towns of the Lockyer Valley between Brisbane and Toowoomba are going under as I write.

[axordil]

I've seen my share of big floods of the Mississippi and its watershed. The '72 and the '93 come to mind, the latter in particular, when many small and not-so-small towns were inundated and some never came back. The combination of ongoing and sudden damage in this one, though, is striking--and awful. Usually you have slow floods and you have flash floods--this sounds like both.

[Griffon64]

Flooding recently killed 52 people in South Africa, too. The images I saw from Australia reminds me of South Africa flooding - the red earth, the incredible extent of the water. I read the percentages of the dams along major rivers and they're all above 100%, some, like the Vaal Dam which can go up to 125%, was close to that. So, there's two countries in the southern hemisphere having extremely wet summers so far.

L_M - is there any article you've come across that I can read on what caused the flooding? An unusual rainfall pattern, or just unusually strong rain in the same pattern as usual? I read that the Wivenhoe Dam was built with flood control in mind after earlier devastating floods. I ask because I know something of the flood controls, etc in South Africa, since my father works in that field and I grew up with it, so to speak.

[Túrin Turambar]

The cause was apparently six times the average montly rainfall for December in central and southern Queensland, almost as if the tropical monsoon belt moved south. Brisbane is flood-prone nonetheless (it suffered severe and fatal flooding in 1974, and even more severe flooding in, IIRC, 1896), and the Wivenhoe Dam is the main defensive measure.

Anyway, the floods are still spreading, and 1500 homes in Ipswich have gone under. The Brisbane River has also burst its banks, which means that these floods could prove worse than 1974.

[Túrin Turambar]

30,000 Brisbane homes are expected to be flooded today, more than 1974. I shudder to think what the city would look like if the Wivenhoe Dam wasn’t there.

I sort-of wish I was there at the moment, figuring that I could at least help fill sandbags or carry supplies or something. It’s odd to think that I’m not going to have any memory of what’s going to be a defining event in the city’s collective consciousness.

[Túrin Turambar]

First floods, the cyclones. Two to be exact; one off the west coast, the other off the east, a possible third forming in the Coral Sea.



The western one (Bianca) may be a threat to Perth, but fortunately it isn’t all that strong, only a category 1. The eastern one (Anthony) is also quite weak, and if it does cross the Queensland coast, then it’ll probably do so well to the north of the flood-damaged regions. That said, it could intensify, so no chickens should be counted yet.

The possible third is a bigger worry. There’s talk of it hitting category 3 and crossing the central Queensland coast near Gladstone, dumping huge amounts of rain on the already flood-devastated area. Too early to tell yet, though. Either way, Australia’s oceans have apparently been unusually warm this year, making them far more prone to generating storms and heavy rain. Nonetheless cyclones in the north at this time of year are not unusual.

The Federal Government is imposing a one-off levy to rebuild Queensland. It isn’t all that much, being only a few dollars a week for average income earners, but it is very steeply regressive and hasn’t escaped controversy.

In completely unrelated news, there’s been a little bit of discussion of late about perceptions of sexism in media commentary towards female politicians. It was triggered by a headline in The Australian earlier this week, which reported on the recent elevation of Lara Giddings as Tasmania’s first female Premier by commentating on her singleness and ‘search for Mr. Right’, but has since broadened to include discussion of criticism of the Prime Minister. I read this interesting article on the ABC’s free-for-all opinion page, The Drum which rounded up the issues.

For example, last July Sydney’s Daily Telegraph ran a story offering style advice for Julia Gillard. Part of normal political discourse, or a double standard? I’m not convinced either way – it isn’t like male politicians have escaped similar criticism. To quote from some more random commentary from The Drum:

The disdain of the die-hard Gillard haters can be discounted. There are those for whom Gillard can never measure up.

Yet, for those not automatically hostile, there is a genuine concern about what she represents. Her position on climate change is suspect to many. Others query her stance on issues as diverse as Iraq, gay marriage and WikiLeaks. Her positions on educational issues – the ones she touts as her major achievements – are under challenge.

In other words, the presentational issues merge with and possibly arise out of doubts about her philosophical and policy positions. The chances of being cut some slack for one thing or another decline accordingly.

As far as we know, Gillard is running a far better government than Kevin Rudd did. She has revived some of the processes of government that stultified under Rudd. Cabinet is said to be functioning better. There is no Gang of Four. Consultation occurs. Decisions are made. Anecdotal accounts offer praise for Gillard’s grasp of issues and for her ability to ask the right questions.

But so often the Government looks and sounds like a bunch of middle-level managers addicted to process and its attendant jargon.

It seems to me that a lot of the same problems that plagued the Rudd Government also afflict the Gillard one. There’s a sense of timidity and drift which hasn’t gone away, even given the strength of Australia’s economy and the opportunity for decisive leadership provided by the flood crisis (which the Queensland State Government and Premier Anna Bligh have been quick to take, even if their counterparts in Canberra have not).

[Inanna]

Oh, dear.

[Túrin Turambar]

Evacuations are now underway in full force in North Queensland. Every flight out of Townsville and Cairns is full and the RAAF is flying hospital patients to Brisbane. All schools have been closed and the army is on standby.

Cyclone Yasi has intensified to an upper-level Category 4, with windspeeds approaching 300km/hr, and is apparently getting stronger still. It isn’t entirely clear where or when it will land, with some of the worst-case scenarios being a direct hit on Innisfail (which was devastated by Cyclone Larry in 2006) or a landfall further south in already flood-ravaged areas. Regardless, it has the potential to be one of the worst cyclones in Australia’s history.

Cyclone Anthony crossed the coast at Bowen two nights ago, but had fortunately weakened to a Category 1 by that stage. Nonetheless the heavy rainfalls it has bought to the centre of the state are not exactly welcome at the moment. It’s currently petering out somewhere in the middle of the continent.

[Túrin Turambar]

Yasi has hit Category 5, with air pressure falling below 920 milibars, sustained winds of 215km/hr (150mph) and gusts reaching 295km/hr (185mph). It is now the most dangerous storm to approach Australia in living memory, and could yet intensify further. It will cross the Queensland coast at Innisfail tonight.

[Dave_LF]

Why is this not making headlines over here? The hemination-wide blizzard I'm contending with at the moment no longer seems like such a big deal...

[Túrin Turambar]

Probably because it isn't threatening a major city. It's small comfort to the few hundred thousand people who live in Townsville, Cairns and Innisfail, of course.

I've heard about the severe weather in the central and eastern U.S., though. Can't recall if I read it on the BBC or CNN first, though.

[Griffon64]

I went looking for some news on this this morning and yes, definitely not in the headlines.

[Inanna]

I went looking for some news on this this morning and yes, definitely not in the headlines.

I did see it on CNN late last night.

[Túrin Turambar]

There's been a fair bit of coverage on the BBC World News (which I'm finding to be just about the best international news source, even though they tend to dwell too much on one lead story).

The cyclone crossed the coast last night as predicted, but we've heard little about damage, casualties, or how strong it was on impact. Most of the affected region is still out of communication with the outside world apparently, and the towns near the centre were all completely evacuated.

[yovargas]

NPR has mentioned it a few times in passing.

[Túrin Turambar]

41 homes have been destroyed in a bushfire near Perth, which is still raging out of control.

This really hasn't been our year so far.

[River]

Ya think?

[Túrin Turambar]

In unrelated news, the official election campaign in New South Wales has started, with the Government of that State scheduled to be put out of its misery on March 29.

Apparently determined to cycle through every possible scandal first, the husband of Education Minister Verity Firth (himself employed by the government as an advisor) was arrested for ecstasy possession. This, of course, led to the Minister herself being asked in a press conference whether she herself had ever taken ecstasy, a question which she refused to answer directly. “I have done nothing wrong” is all that she would say. “Minister, is there a reason why you won’t say that you haven’t ever taken ecstasy?” someone ended up asking. Premier Kristina Keneally could probably have done without having that exchange all over the nightly news at the start of her campaign.

Keneally herself hasn’t escaped controversy, by coming out against the Federal Government’s proposed flood levy on the basis that it will hit New South Wales residents (there doesn’t seem to be a widely-accepted term for someone from New South Wales) harder because of the higher cost of living in the Premier State. This hasn't won her all that many friends in Canberra. Or in Brisbane.

Keneally has never been able to shake off being an immigrant, in a country where politicians who don’t sound Australian are rare. Perhaps Keneally hadn't previously heard of Labor's 20-year-old notion to cap electricity and household utility charges at the same level as inflation. After all, back when then-opposition leader Bob Carr first put forward the idea, Keneally was still an arts student at the University of Dayton in her native Ohio. It's unlikely that state Labor policies received much coverage in the Dayton Daily News[…] remarked a snippy editorial in the Sydney Daily Telegraph when she inadvertently recycled a previously-used campaign pledge.

It’s hardly fair when she’s married to an Australian and has lived in Australia most of her adult life, but nonetheless I have to admit that I find her Midwestern accent kind of jarring coming from an Australian State Premier as well. An accent from the British Isles wouldn’t draw too much comment, even today, and there’s been a few high-profile figures with some type of European accent or another, but American-Australians in public life are pretty rare.

Regardless, she could never save the doomed New South Wales Labor Government. The only real question people are asking now is whether their defeat is going to be record-breaking or not. There’s been some talk of comparisons with Canada in 1993.

[Túrin Turambar]

With our summer of disasters settling down, the national debate has started to shift back to the tireless topics of asylum seekers and immigration.

The funerals of the asylum seekers who died in last December’s Christmas Island tragedy took place in Sydney this week, and the Federal Government flew their relatives to Sydney from the detention centre on Christmas Island for the occasion. This has not been without controversy, with the Shadow Minister for Immigration, Scott Morrison, initially objecting to the use of taxpayer’s money for this purpose (he has since admitted that his comments were insensitive).

Among the mourners was a 9-year-old boy, Seena Akhlaqi Sheikhdost, who lost both his parents in the disaster. Following the funeral, he was returned to detention. The issue of keeping children in immigration detention is an extremely controversial one in Australia, perhaps the single most heated topic in national politics, and his particular case has aroused some extremely strong commentary. In addition, there has been some concern expressed of late that a lot of unaccompanied children are being sent on boats in an attempt to reach Australia so that they will be quickly processed and their whole family can subsequently join them.

There was another huge blow-up this week when an anonymous leaker suggested that Morrison had suggested to the Shadow Cabinet that the Opposition could gain political traction out of anti-Muslim sentiment in Australia. He denies it, as does everyone else who was present, and to be honest I’m not persuaded that he ever did say anything to that effect. Nonetheless the debate over multiculturalism in Europe has spilled over to Australia. The prevailing view amongst most of the political classes is that Australian multiculturalism has been far more successful than multiculturalism in the old world, a point that I agree with, although there has always been a strong nativist, anti-immigration movement in Australia that does not.

That has also had some impact on another subject. Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott suggested cutting back foreign aid, particularly aid to Indonesian schools, to free up more money to rebuild flood-devastated Queensland. The Australian Government funds Indonesian schools in order to have some control over what is taught in them, an anti-terrorism measure introduced following the Bali bombings.

Those issues, along with the flood levy, have exposed divisions in the Opposition. For the first time, I’m getting the impression that the Government is finding its feet, and despite fairly average poll results, is in a position of growing strength. We’ll see if it lasts.

[Túrin Turambar]

The Greens have moved a bill enhancing the power of the territory legislatures. As it stands now, the Federal Cabinet can unilaterally strike down laws in the Australian Capital Territory, Northern Territory, and Norfolk Island. The Greens’ plan is to make it so that only the Commonwealth Parliament can override territory legislation. This isn’t an issue for the states, as they have their powers guaranteed by the Constitution (or rather, the areas in which the Federal Government can legislate are limited by the Constitution).

The bill is controversial because it’s seen as a means to enable socially-progressive legislation like gay unions and assisted suicide. The Federal government used its powers to strike down a voluntary euthanasia law in the NT in 1997, and a gay civil union law in the ACT in 2004. The ACT, in particular, has a far more urbanised and educated population than any state, and probably would pass very liberal drug, assisted suicide and same-sex union laws if it could get away with it.

The Government was initially supportive of the Greens’ plan, and I suspected that they were using this issue to drive a wedge between the social progressives and conservatives in the Coalition. But there’s been a backbench revolt among socially-conservative government MPs (from the traditional working-class, Catholic, trade union wing of the Labor Party I assume) and the whole thing has been referred to some committee or another. In particular, I think they’re afraid of being seen to be too influenced by the Greens.

Of course, the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate, so I suspect this issue won’t go away.

Oh, and we’re getting a Carbon Tax on the first of July, 2012, and an all-out emissions trading scheme three or so years later. This has set off a very heated debate, to put it mildly. There’s been some concerns of late that political rhetoric in Australia is getting more extreme than we’ve traditionally had, a trend that I hope to see nipped in the bud. In particular, I was shocked at the death threats left on the phone of independent MP Tony Windsor.