Australian Federal Election: The day after

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Lord M, couldn't you please be a little more comprehensive.

[Túrin Turambar]

You obviously didn't read my 2004 TORC election thread .

[Túrin Turambar]

Penultimate update

Thursday night – election is the day after tomorrow.

Breaking news: Some Liberal Party members dropped fake leaflets in the critical seat of Lindsay, which were basically an endorsement of the ALP by Islamic fundamentalists. They claimed, for example, that the Labor party wanted to forgive the Bali bombers, and finished with a misspelled ‘Allahu Akbar’. It was an attempt to link Labor with terrorism, and to stir up anti-Muslim sentiment in volatile Western Sydney. Several members have been expelled from the party, and even the right-wing journalists have been relentless in their criticism of the stunt. Those responsible claimed it was a ‘joke’. Needless to say, the Government doesn’t really need this.

I haven’t posted many (serious) videos, but this 6-minute report with ABC political editor Michael Brissenden is a nice summary of where everything is standing now.

The final polls are starting to come out. We have two:

Galaxy: 52/48
ACNielsen: 57/43

A massive Newspoll will be out tomorrow. I’ll make my final update then, including my final election prediction.

[solicitr]

A columnist in the Guardian was gloating that if Labor win they'll boot the Queen and set up a Republic. Any basis, or just more Grauniad wishful thinking?

Unrelated point: some dirty tricks operatives (unidentified) have started a whispering campaign accusing Barack Obama of being Muslim (he isn't, but his middle name is Hussein and he (briefly) attended a madrassah in Indonesia, so the accusations have had a certain traction).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm going to respond to the latter point in the Obama thread to avoid osgiliating this thread into a discussion of U.S. politics just two days before the Australian election.

Thanks for posting that video, Lord M. Very interesting. Do you think there is a split in the Liberal Party about ratifying Kyoto, or was that one local politician they interviewed an abberation.

Howard reminds me a bit of Cheney.

[Impenitent]

A real split? Hard to say; this close to the election they are not allowing hints of dissent to emerge. Post election - whichever way it goes - there will be a reassessment of their environment policies. There has to be - the drought here is a huge issue and both parties will have to grapple with it first and foremost. In that context, there may be movement on Kyoto as there are dissenting positions which will come to the fore when the pressure of the election is over.

I am still very uncertain of the results; either a win to Labor by a nose or a landslide. Nothing in between.

There is a swing, no doubt about it, but is it enough to move the entrenched Liberal seats to create that landslide? Otherwise, it is all up to the marginal seats and those undecided voters. The position in the west of the country is much more pro-Liberal than in the east, and they could even pick up a couple of seats there.

We shall see. It will be the most entertaining election night we've had in years, though, that is certain.

[Túrin Turambar]

A columnist in the Guardian was gloating that if Labor win they'll boot the Queen and set up a Republic. Any basis, or just more Grauniad wishful thinking?

Making Australia a Republic is a plank of Labor’s platform. Kevin Rudd has said that it won’t be a priority of a first-term Labor Government, though. The last attempt to make Australia a Republic failed at referendum in 1999.

In other news:

Final Newspoll: 52-48
Final Morgan: 54.5-45.5

John Howard’s private Sydney residence (which he has not lived in since 1996) has been renovated recently. Looks like he isn’t hopeful. On a related note, pranksters put Kiribilli House up on a real estate site.

The News Ltd. papers, including The Australian, have endorsed Labor. Rupert Murdoch always backs winners, making a Labor victory look more likely than ever.

My final predictions:

2PP: 54-46

ALP: 91
Coalition: 57
Independents: 2

Greens to win the balance of power in the Senate

The ABC Site will be the place to be for results. Someone on an Australian Politics board I post at has also created this live election site. I will provide some updates here. It is now about 7:00 pm on Friday AEST – polls will close and counting begin tommorrow at 6:00 pm in Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales, 7:00 pm in Queensland, 7:30 in South Australia, 8:30 in the Northern Territory, and 9:00 in most of Western Australia.

I’m looking forward to it. An election with a real chance of an incumbent Government going down in a landslide is rare here – we haven’t seen one since 1996.

[Túrin Turambar]

ELECTION NIGHT

I will be making some updates in this post. You can get live results from the ABC here and here, more live results here as well as a running commentary from the Poll Bludger. All times will refer to QLD time, which is one hour behind AEST.

4:55: Polls close in NSW, VIC, and TAS in 5 minutes. There's evidence of a possible last-minute swing to the Government, although an ALP win is still the most likely outcome. In other news, a News Ltd. journalist attacked a Labor candidate in Sydney today.

5:25: Initial results from rural NSW shows swing to Labor.

5:27: Liberals are at Wentworth Hotel in Sydney, Labor at Lang Park in Brisbane. P.M. is watching results at Kirribilli, allegedly fairly confident.

5:28: Swing in Braddon, maybe some 5%

5:55: Strong swings in Eden-Monaro, Corangamite. Bennelong in doubt, but Bass still holding fairly firm for Liberals.

6:00: Polls close in QLD.

6:22: 7 seats to Labor

6:37: ABC calling 10 seats to Labor in VIC, TAS and NSW including Bennelong. Minimal SA and no QLD figures yet. On these numbers I’m willing to call it for the ALP.

6:41:

Bennelong
Braddon
Corangamite
Deakin
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Lindsay
Page
Parramatta
Wakefield

6:52: Looks like at least 18 Labor gains.

7:07: We’re well and truly cooking with gas now, although the count is very slow in key QLD seats. QLD is shaping up very badly for the Government. Malcolm Turnbull is holding up very well in Wentworth, though – some good news for the Liberal Party. ABC is making a tentative prediction for a Labor Government.

More changing seats:

Dawson
Makin
Blair
Bass

7:31 – The very boisterous, left-leaning audience (‘ALP rent-a-crowd’ – Finance Minister Nick Minchin) at the Tally Room is starting to disrupt the reporting. They cheer especially loudly whenever the ABC reports John Howard falling ever further behind in Bennelong.

7:41: Current ABC prediction is 85 seats to Labor. See all the changing seats here.

8:06: Labor is definatley in, probably with 87 seats and a 2PP of a little under 54-46. John Howard has definatley been defeated in his own seat of Bennelong, the second PM ever to lose his own seat. After almost 12 years, the Howard Government is finished.

8:30: Labor’s successful Bennelong candidate, Maxine McKew: “Great night for Labor…great change in Australia”. Some worrying results for Labor in the west, but not enough to stop them forming Government. I expect John Howard to make his concession speech in about twenty minutes to half an hour. Nothing firm on the Senate.

[Impenitent]

I'll refrain from commenting - you've put in so much work you deserve the final roundup.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Congratulations to Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party.

[Túrin Turambar]

Sorry for the outage, my computer went down to a virus right after Kevin Rudd’s victory speech.

I found both speeches fairly flat and boring. John Howard was dignified, but he rambled. Kevin Rudd’s speech was scripted, complete with celebratory music (which several commentators noted sounded like the soundtrack of a pornographic film). I hoped for more emotion from the audiences – only one lonely ‘we love you John!’ from the Liberals, and not a single ‘we want Kev!’ from the Labor people.

Labor is expected to hold 88 seats to the Coalition’s 60 on a 2PP margin of 53.5 to 46.5. My prediction is looking a bit closer, but I still didn’t take the last minute swings to the Government into account.

For full House results, see the ABC’s results page and the interactive map.

The Senate looks like 37 Coalition, 32 ALP, 5 Greens, 1 FFP and 1 Independent (Nick Xenophon). This amounts to 38 ‘right’ Senators, 37 ‘left’ Senators, and the balance of power in the hands of Xenophon. The new Senate will sit July next year.

So overall, a decisive bur not devastating Labor win. The right can block Labor in the Senate, and the Howard ministry is largely intact, losing only four ministers at current counting figures. One is John Howard himself, and another is Indigenous Affairs and Family Services Minister Mal Brough. I was disappointed to see him go down – he was one of the most competent ministers in the Howard Government, and he gave what I thought was the best concession speech of the night.

Still, a great result for the ALP nonetheless. After 11 years, they’re back. They also hold every Australian Government – Federal, State and Territory. The Lord Mayor of Brisbane is Australia’s most senior Liberal politician.

The Democrats have been wiped out. The Greens have gained a little under 1% of the primary vote, but done worse than expected. They’re set to make possible gains in the WA, SA and VIC Senate, but lost Kerry Nettle in NSW. Family First went backwards slightly.

The biggest news today is that Howard Government Treasurer Peter Costello has announced that he will not contest the leadership of the Liberal Party, but will resign from politics. He was the heir apparent, and his announcement came as a huge surprise. He probably appreciates that his chances of getting any further are slim – he is too tarred with the Howard brush. He is a highly intelligent man, and I have no doubts that he will succeed in whatever path he pursues.

I also want to note the tragic death of popular News Ltd. journalist Matt Price from brain tumours at the age of only 46.

Finally, how was the result reported in your country (if at all)? I’m curious.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The headlines that I have seen have been on the line of "Bush Ally Loses in Australia" and "Rudd Makes Global Warming a Priority"

[Túrin Turambar]

About what I've seen browsing the U.S. media, V. Do they give any reasons for the result?

Also just continuing with the wrap-up. I should have final results soon, and the new Ministry will be sworn in on Thursday.

Something which has irritated me a little has been journalists who were talking up the Coalition’s chances right up until counting began suddenly going on about great Kevin Rudd’s victory was and how terribly the Coalition performed during the campaign. They need to sell papers, of course, but I was hoping for a bit of level-headed commentary. As it stood, the pseph blogs have been best. The ABC’s election-night coverage was suburb as well – Antony Green is quite possibly the world’s best psephologist.

There’s a few other traps I’ve seen some commentators fall into.

The major issues were Workchoices, incumbent fatigue vs new leadership, and cost of living issues (like interest rates). There’s an attempt by some progressives to make this election out as a total repudiation of Howard’s social and economic agenda. That’s largely wishful thinking – they’re trying to make out that the electorate ‘woke up’ to how lying, authoritarian and regressive Howard is sometime between 2004 and 2007. Others are predicting that the Liberals will never again be in Government, based on similar reasons.

A number of others (including myself) expected big swings in inner-city electorates over issues like Iraq and Climate Change. They didn’t eventuate – North Sydney, for example, swung by 6%, while Wentworth and Higgins hardly swung at all. This probably explains the extra 2-4 seats and 1% of the vote which I expected Labor to win, as well as the extra Greens Senator or two. As counting continues, however, my 92 seat 54-46 prediction isn’t looking as bad as it did on Saturday night.

As it turned out, the biggest swings were in rural QLD (over 10% in Flynn, Forde, Dawson and Leichhart). There were a lot of naysayers who thought that Queensland wouldn’t deliver much to the ALP, but the result can be seen as a correction of Labor’s appalling performance in the state since 1996. It’s also noteworthy that Labor won the 2PP in QLD for only the third time since the war (the others were, off the top of my head, 1961 and 1987).

[Túrin Turambar]

Some news.

1. Kevin Rudd has unveiled his frontbench. It was selected by the leader rather than the party, a first for the ALP (Coalition cabinets are normally chosen by the leader). The new ministry will be sworn in on Monday. By now, John Howard will have probably written to the Governor-General advising him that he can no longer form a Government and that he should send for Kevin Rudd.

2. Out with the old: In addition to John Howard and Peter Costello, Outgoing Deputy Prime Minister and National Party Leader Mark Vaile has stood down. There’s also widespread speculation that outgoing Foreign Minister Alexander Downer won’t stay around. He has met with very little support for a bid for the party leadership (in the end, even his own family talked him out of it, not to mention he wasn’t exactly a hit when was opposition leader in 1995) and probably has no desire to re-live the long years he spent in opposition in the 80s and early 90s. Outgoing Attorney-General Phillip Ruddock, currently the longest-serving member of the House, might also bow out. We might be treated to by-elections in Higgins, Lyne, Mayo and Beorwra.

3. And in with the new: Brendan Nelson (outgoing Defence Minister, Bradfield, NSW) is the new leader of the Liberal Party and Julie Bishop (outgoing Education Minister, Curtin, WA) is his deputy. This looks like a fairly moderate ticket – not hardline conservative, but nothing too new or radical. Still, with so many old senior figures leaving, the Coalition is making a solid effort at generational change.

4. Still counting. Labor is now looking at holding 85 seats in the new Parliament, and a 2PP of 53.4 (their best since 1943). The Senate hasn’t solidified yet. I’ll come and make the final assessment when the results are certain.

[Túrin Turambar]

Sorry to make post after post after post, but there's a bit of news.

Counting is continuing, with eight seats still undecided (grumble). In the meantime, here’s another useful video.

It’s been amazing to see how quickly the Liberal Party has run from the Howard legacy. It seems that the party will support Kyoto, will support gay civil unions, and might even support an apology for indigenous Australians. Conservatives will probably be unimpressed, but after close to 13 years of the same leadership a change is probably for the best.

Not that the new PM hasn’t had a hiccough or two:

NOT everything went smoothly for K. Michael Rudd when he announced his new ministry yesterday. He forgot to name Stephen Conroy as minister for communications, until asked why the senator was missing. The PM-elect fumbled through papers. "I skipped through that by mistake, I'm sorry. Stephen Conroy is in the ... um, in the ... um cabinet, and ... ahh, Stephen Conroy is going to kill me for this. Stephen Conroy is the cabinet minister responsible for ... ahh, broadband, communication and ... the digital economy and as such has a critical role. He simply formed part of this page, which got stuck to the back of a previous page."

Also touched on this thread has been the Liberal Party’s state woes. In Queensland, accident-prone leader Bruce Flegg is going down, but not without a fight. The party room is split 4-4 (the Liberals’ performance at recent elections has been so poor they hold only 8 of 89 seats in the State Parliament) between him and challenger Tim Nicholls. He has promised to stand down provided the leadership goes to anyone other than Nicholls. In Western Australia, Paul Omodei has taken a simpler approach – he’ll simply punch out any member who challenges him:

POLITICIAN and would-be pugilist Paul Omodei has called on challengers to his leadership of the West Australian Opposition to "bring it on". The tough-talking Omodei, who on Wednesday threatened to deck with a savage right cross anyone who tapped him on the shoulder, named his likely punching bags as deputy leader Troy Buswell and former leader Matt Birney. "I'm not going to bring it on. If they want to bring it on, they can. If they want to call a meeting, they can call a meeting and have it out, pull on the gloves," he says. "Troy Buswell would be the obvious one ... and Matt Birney, yeah, bring it on, all of them."

Being in opposition in every Parliament in Australia is not much fun. Peter Brent, in his December 2 post ‘Just a little tweaking’ (his blog software doesn’t allow linking to individual posts) talks about how quickly the stories we tell can change.

[Túrin Turambar]

Final (presumably) post:

The Rudd Government was sworn in on Monday. As its first act, it ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

On a lighter note, the Chaser tried to get into a polling booth without being given a how-to-vote card. I found an easier way – I arrived early and came in through the back gate .

Paul Omodei seems to have fended off challenges to his leadership of the WA Opposition with his fists, but the crisis in QLD is rapidly turning into a fiasco. Still having not decided on a leader, the Liberal Party is considering a lucky dip to select one.

Liberal Leader Brendan Nelson is trying to decide on policy:



In the meantime, I think that we’ve had enough votes counted for me to call the result.

Due to postal votes favouring the Coalition, Labor’s majority is slimmer than expected. The Rudd Government will hold 83 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65, with 2 Independents. Labor gained 24 seats from the Coalition – 2 in Tasmania, 2 in Victoria, 1 in Western Australia, 1 in the Northern Territory, 3 in South Australia, 6 in New South Wales and an impressive 9 in Queensland. The National Party gained a formerly independent seat in New South Wales upon the death of the sitting member, and the Liberal Party won one Labor seat in Western Australia.

The new Senate will have 37 Coalition Senators, 32 Labor, 5 Green, 1 Family First and 1 Independent (Nick Xenophon – SA). Labor gained a seat from the Coalition in Tasmania, from the Democrats in Queelsnad and from the Greens in New South Wales. Xenophon gained his seat from the Coalition in South Australia, and Greens defeated incumbent Democrats in Western Australia and Victoria. The balance of power rests with Family First and Xenophon – with support from either of those, plus the Greens, Labor will be able to pass legislation. This Senate will sit in July.

I also now know that, if you’re running for public office, taking photographs of your penis and distributing them on the internet is unwise. Especially if your party is running on an anti-pornography campaign. “That’s not my penis” also has to be one of the most memorable quotes of the campaign, along with “b******t” (Tony Abbott during the health debate) and ABC Reporter Kerry O’Brien’s “swing to the ABC [ALP] in Bennelong” Freudian slip.

And that concludes the 2007 election. We can now return to talking about politics in the country where it actually matters .

[Primula Baggins]

L_M, this has been fascinating and is the kind of coverage American-based media just does not do. And your posts have explained things for outsiders better than reading the Australian media directly would do. I've learned a lot about not just this election but Australian politics in general, and I really appreciate it.

[Túrin Turambar]

Seeing as some things of interest are happening down here at the moment, I thought I’d post a little update.

1. This weekend Canberra is hosting the ‘2020 Summit’, a gathering of some hundreds of the ‘best and brightest’ Australians to plot a course for Australia’s future. Critics of the summit say it’s little more than a talkfest. However, the delegates have committed to an Australian Republic by 2010.

2. As Governor-General Michael Jeffry’s term is expiring soon, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has appointed Queensland Governor Quentin Bryce to replace him. She’ll be our first female G-G, and if the 2020 delegates get their way, our last.

3. Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson is in deep trouble, facing opinion polls showing up to 65% of the electorate planning to vote Labor at the next election. There is a by-election coming up soon in the marginal National Party seat of Gippsland triggered by the resignation of Howard Government Minister Julian McGauran. If Labor wins the seat, he’s probably toast. In fact, he’s probably toast anyway.

4. Kevin Rudd recently returned from an overseas tour for which he won a lot of praise. He certainly didn’t seem to shy away from the tough issues, telling President Bush he was going to pull Australian troops out of Iraq, the Queen he was going to try and make Australia a Republic and the Chinese that their conduct in Tibet amounted to human rights abuses (while addressing university students in Mandarin).

5. China’s hunger for our resources will probably see us through the upcoming recession. Australia is the only western country that the IMF expects to have 2-3% growth in the upcoming year.

[Túrin Turambar]

As a general rule, political parties don’t go to too much trouble when selecting candidates for seats that they don’t expect to win. This can result in some...interesting...characters being elected to Parliament if they do pull of upset wins in these seats.

Enter James Bigood, who won the safe National Party seat of Dawson for the ALP in last year’s election.

Financial crisis an act of God: Bidgood

December 4, 2008 - 9:22PM

A federal Labor backbencher already facing criticism for taking photos of a protester threatening to set himself alight outside Parliament House has called the global financial crisis an act of God.

James Bidgood, a first-time MP from Queensland, was forced to apologise to parliament after he agreed to supply pictures of Wednesday's incident to a newspaper in exchange for a $1,000 donation to a charity.

The MP, who was hauled over the coals by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd over his actions, has now emerged in an undated DVD showing him speaking at a function at parliament.

In the speech, he argues that Christian marches for Jesus in London caused the October 1987 stock market crash and says "when Christians pray, God does things", The Australian reports.

"In 1987 there was another march for Jesus. That took place in April. And guess what happened in October 1987? The stock market crashed. All property values lost one third of their value and over a million people lost their homes," he said in the DVD.

"I believe when Christians pray, God does things."

"I believe what is happening today is as much to do with God in economics bringing judgment."

Mr Bidgood also warned the world was in the end times.

"I believe that there is God's justice in action in what's going on here and we haven't seen the end of it," he said.

"The ultimate conclusion is like I say we look at Bible prophesy we're going towards a one-world bank and a one-world monetary system and if you believe the word of God and you read Revelations ... you will see clearly what's being spelt out and we are in the end times."

link

Yes, these are the sorts of views you get from ostensibly left-wing politicians from rural Queensland. I thought we’d moved a bit beyond this though.

On the other hand, at least it is isn’t the dominant ideology of the entire state Government anymore...

[Túrin Turambar]

Update on events in Australia:

For the last few months, the dominant issues have been the Government’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) and to a lesser extent, the arrival of several boats of Sri Lankan asylum seekers. Both have proven a huge headache for the conservative opposition.

The current Leader of the Liberal Party, and therefore Leader of the Coalition and Leader of the Opposition, is former merchant banker Malcolm Turnbull. He represents a wealthy and educated constituency in inner Sydney, and is himself a progressive on many issues. He had a successful career prior to entering Parliament, is a millionaire, and was the leader of the Australian Republican Movement during the 1999 referendum on turning Australia into a Republic. He is obviously intelligent and talented, but has shown himself to be impetuous (probably overestimating his own ability and popularity), has made a series of rookie political mistakes, and the Opposition’s performance in opinion polls has been abysmal.

Turnbull won the leadership on the resignation of Dr. Brendan Nelson (who succeeded defeated Prime Minister John Howard) on the slimmest of margins, and he has always been unpopular with more conservative members from less urban, wealthy and educated seats.

The Government is seeking to fulfill its election promise to fight climate change by passing the CPRS before Copenhagen. Due to the composition of the Senate (elected through proportional representation) it needs the support of seven non-Government Senators. So it must cut a deal, either with the Greens, Independent Nick Xenophon and Family First (ie. Christian Right) Senator Stephen Fielding, or with the Coalition. Fielding won’t support a CPRS under any circumstances, and the Greens want a tougher ETS than Labor is prepared to give them. Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is a moderate – he comes from a conservative state (Queensland) and has always preferred a ‘big tent’ approach to government. It’s kept him well ahead in the polls, even if it has frustrated Labor’s left-wing base. So he’s decided to negotiate with the Coalition.

Turnbull is committed to passing an emissions trading scheme in some form, but many of his MPs are climate change skeptics. Of late the anti-ETS forces have congealed around Nick Minchin, the leader of the Coalition in the Senate and Barnaby Joyce, a maverick National Party Senator from Queensland. It looked like the Opposition might get some respite when the boat people started arriving – border protection has always been a strong issue for the Coalition and a vulnerability for Labor. Rudd has taken a hardline approach to the asylum seekers, refusing to let them enter Australia and seeking to have them detained in Indonesia (where they were originally intercepted). It’s a compromise that doesn’t settle the hardliners on either side – the Greens and the Labor left want them let in, the Coalition right wants them packed off back to Sri Lanka and the tough border protection regime of the Howard Government re-instated in full (which was only relaxed slightly under the Rudd Government).

Turnbull was able to make some hay on the issue (although he couldn’t seem to decide whether to attack the Government for being too hard or too soft, so he ended up doing both at different times). But now the deadline for the vote on CPRS is approaching. The scheme itself was already weak to begin with and has been further watered down by Coalition amendments, but it still has the potential to split the Coalition.

At present, the bill is about to be voted on, Turnbull has declared that the Coalition is in favour of it, his opponents insist that it is not and that he misread the mood at the party meeting yesterday, and as a result Turnbull has called on them to challenge him or shut up. His leadership is probably already terminal, so he may end up martyring himself on this issue.

So the questions now are:

1) Will the CPRS pass the Senate (Labor has a majority in the House so it's guaranteed there)? If not, will the Government call an election on the issue?
2) What will happen to the Sri Lankans?
3) What will become of Malcolm Turnbull? If he falls, who will replace him and what will their position on the CPRS be?