2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[N.E. Brigand]

Per 538.com's polling average, the lead that Democrats took in the general Congressional polling average in July following the Dobbs decision has now vanished:



I feel confident that polls about abortion rights would continue to show strong support, so what gives?

Are people really thinking, "Gas prices are up, so I guess it's OK if I'm forced to give birth?"

Amanda Marcotte argues that "the biggest friend of fascism is cynicism."

Most voters, when asked why they're cynical, state "corruption." But they aren't talking about the attempted coup. They're talking about political elites winning and everyone else losing, no matter who is in office. This is why Republicans don't worry about whether their policies are popular. Their goal is to destroy all faith in government. That means shutting government down, floating conspiracy theories, and being as incredibly nasty. Turn people off politics, so they have no opposition.

[N.E. Brigand]

A Republican candidate for state legislature here in Ohio used the phrase "Jew you down" in a book on business advice that was published in 2014. Confronted with that history today, she says she used that phrase out of respect for the financial acumen of the Jewish people.

[N.E. Brigand]

Joy Hofmeister, the Democratic candidate for governor in Oklahoma, seemed to surprise not only Oklahoma's current Republican governor, Kevin Stitt, but also the debate's moderator when she correctly noted that the violent crime rate in Oklahoma is higher than that in either California or New York. The moderator said he would check on that and report back later (I don't know if he did). The governor flatly denied it and held up the claim for derision.

In fact, crime rates in Republican controlled states are, on average, significantly higher than in Democratic controlled states. And in Oklahoma, it's not even possible to blame Democratic mayors of large cities (as Republicans are wont to do), because the state's two largest cities, which do indeed contribute to the state's high rate, have Republican mayors.

Is the difference due in part to New York and California spending more on police (per capita) than Oklahoma does?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Things are looking considerably worse than a couple of weeks ago.

[N.E. Brigand]

Lara Logan, who was CBS's chief foreign affairs correspondent from 2006 to 2018, now works for Newsmax, where she said today that "the open border is Satan's way of taking control of the world ... The ones who want us eating insects, cockroaches, and that while they dine on the blood of children ... They're not going to win."*

Did she lose her mind in the years after leaving CBS, or was it already happening while she was there -- and did it skew her reporting?

Anyway, also today a Republican state legislator in Florida tweeted praise of Spain's former fascist dictator, Fracisco Franco.

And the right-wing Federalist published a piece calling for the right to abandon conservatism (this is explicitly stated) in favor of fascism (this is not, but that's what they're describing). Also all abortions would be outlawed.

This is what Democrats are opposed to: the end of democracy.

(And of course, if they can't pull off fascism, Republicans also plan to gut Social Security and Medicare.)

*Edit: 1. Correction: Logan has been a regular guest but not a host at Newsmax. 2. Apparently Logan went too far even for Newsmax, because they've just denounced her comments and said she won't be returning.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's the hypocrisy that justifies, in my view, even mentioning this turn of events in a local rce in Arizona. A Republican running for a seat on the community college board who has proclaimed that he wanted "our children protected [from] the progressive left" was arrested earlier this week after a police officer found him indecently exposed in his car within sight of a preschool. Presumably he'll get what he deserves, and I wouldn't even mention it if Republicans would drop the holier-than-thou act.

[N.E. Brigand]

Joy Hofmeister, the Democratic candidate for governor in Oklahoma, seemed to surprise not only Oklahoma's current Republican governor, Kevin Stitt, but also the debate's moderator when she correctly noted that the violent crime rate in Oklahoma is higher than that in either California or New York. The moderator said he would check on that and report back later (I don't know if he did). The governor flatly denied it and held up the claim for derision.

In fact, crime rates in Republican controlled states are, on average, significantly higher than in Democratic controlled states. And in Oklahoma, it's not even possible to blame Democratic mayors of large cities (as Republicans are wont to do), because the state's two largest cities, which do indeed contribute to the state's high rate, have Republican mayors.

Is the difference due in part to New York and California spending more on police (per capita) than Oklahoma does?

A striking point in furtherance of this subject: "If you eliminated all the murders in the biggest cities in Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Missouri, those states' murder rates would still rank in the top 10 in the country." I am reminded of one of Arthur Conan Doyle's stories, written well over a century ago, in which he has Sherlock Holmes tell Dr. Watson how he views London as safer than the countryside. But in this case, the likeliest reasons seem to be: a "weaker social safety net," "less prosperity," underfunding of police (already mentioned), and of course: "it's a lot easier to buy a gun" in red states.

[N.E. Brigand]

In Arizona, the Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is leading the polls.

Per new reporting in the Arizona Daily Mirror, Lake's campaign manager "likened all Native Americans to bloodthirsty savages who engage in human sacrifice in a racist tweet mocking the concept of Indigenous People’s Day." The campaign condemned bigotry in the abstract declined to address the tweet specifically.

[N.E. Brigand]

Lara Logan, who was CBS's chief foreign affairs correspondent from 2006 to 2018, now works for Newsmax, where she said today that "the open border is Satan's way of taking control of the world ... The ones who want us eating insects, cockroaches, and that while they dine on the blood of children ... They're not going to win."*

Did she lose her mind in the years after leaving CBS, or was it already happening while she was there -- and did it skew her reporting?

*Edit: 1. Correction: Logan has been a regular guest but not a host at Newsmax. 2. Apparently Logan went too far even for Newsmax, because they've just denounced her comments and said she won't be returning.

In the past year or two, Logan has also been barred from appearing on other conservative outlets, including Fox News, after crossing one line or another (for instance, she compared Dr. Anthony Fauci to the Nazi doctor, Josef Mengele).

And I think that they were right to ban her (and should have done it sooner).

But aren't such moves what conservatives regularly decry as "cancel culture"?

[N.E. Brigand]

In Pennsylvania, at an event where the state's Republican candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, will appear tomorrow, one of today's presenters showed this image of people who he claims will all be dead withing three months. This is the kind of nuts Republicans are embracing.



I'm having trouble identifying all those expected to be visited by the "Angel of Death." Can anyone help me fill in the gaps (and correct any errors)?

--Top Row: President Joe Biden, Chief Justice John Roberts, Senator Lindsey Graham,* former President Bill Clinton, former TV host Chris Matthews, tech executive Bill Gates, unknown, New York Governor Kathy Hochul

--Middle Row: Vice President Kamala Harris, former TV host Brian Stelter, Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, TV host Chris Wallace, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Dr. Anthony Fauci, New York Mayor Eric Adams

--Bottom Row: Senator Chuck Schumer, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Congresswoman Maxine Waters, Congressman Jerry Nadler, TV host Rachel Maddow, unknown, former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams, unknown

*That is Sen. Graham, right? After all the Trump-groveling he's done?

- - - - - - - - - - -
Also in Pennsylvania, Jenna Ellis, sometime lawyer for Donald Trump, criticized Mastriano's opponent, Josh Shapiro, for being "at best a secular Jew."

[Sunsilver]

Thought I saw Trudeau there!
There are some right-wing Canadians who would agree with this!

I really don't get all the hate being aimed at him. I'm not a huge fan, but I don't like how partisan Canadian politics is becoming.

[RoseMorninStar]

That sign is really creepy and it sounds like a threat.. the angel of death is coming for them.. That's messed up. I tried looking something up about that sign but so much nutter stuff came up I was afraid to click on it. YIKES.

I drove into town to do a few errands & noticed that there are quite a few new 'IN GOD WE TRUST' signs posted. They are not posted next to political signs but I'm guessing it's political in nature because it's so close to the mid-terms. The only other thing I can think of is that it is in response to the 'LOVE IS LOVE (etc..)' signs.

[N.E. Brigand]

Argh, what is going on here?



Frank goes on:

"Pennsylvania's focus group is a cavalcade of Democrats who are unhappy with things they wanted months ago. We've had people in the Pennsylvania focus group openly lie about things we have them on record saying months ago."

Personally, I don't hear Democrats talking about abortion anywhere near as much as I thought they should be doing after Dobbs. Does this woman, who is clearly pro-choice, want her rights over her own body taken away? And more broadly, has everyone lost their #$%*ing minds?

Actually I'm glad someone replied to ask Frank if her team confronts these focus group participants with their previous words. Here's what she says:

"Yes, they say, 'Oh I didn't remember I said that,' or some stupid thing like that. Really, what seems to be happening is that people base their opinions on what they think will not get them yelled at."

[RoseMorninStar]

And more broadly, has everyone lost their #$%*ing minds?

Yes.

[N.E. Brigand]

How is it that despite this being the truth:





The legend that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the economy developed?



Democratic presidents have plainly had much more economic success on average than Republican presidents over the past century, but people persist in believing otherwise.

[Eldy]

"Really, what seems to be happening is that people base their opinions on what they think will not get them yelled at."

Honestly unsurprising.

How is it that despite this being the truth [...] The legend that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the economy developed?

My guess: many people, especially Americans, assume the wealthy know what they're talking about simply because they are wealthy and successful, even when they plainly don't (in some cases, even when they are not really that successful, like Trump), and wealthy people disproportionately like the party that wants them to pay lower taxes. So if the people with money like the GOP, clearly that must mean the GOP is good with money! /s

[N.E. Brigand]

Two fascinating quotes in excerpts I've seen from this piece from a couple weeks ago in the conservative National Review (I don't have access to the whole article) about how Mexican Americans in the Rio Grande valley are moving toward Republicans:

“I’m no longer Mexican—I’m an American and I don’t want to be labeled as a Mexican-American,” Osvaldo, who became a US citizen last month, told me at a Texas GOP rally. When his parents become citizens, “They’re gonna be voting red. We love this country.”

If Donald Trump had his way, Osvaldo and his parents probably would never be in the U.S. in the first place. Republicans want to drastically reduce all immigration, not just stop illegal immigration.

Cindy, a Latina woman with Osvaldo at the GOP rally, cites her mom as an example: “She’s never been involved in politics...I’m like, ‘did you know that a girl can have a baby for nine months, it’s born, and you can kill it?’ She’s like, ‘no, that’s murder.’ No, that’s New York.”

Cindy should be ashamed of herself for lying to her mother.

[Inanna]

How is it that despite this being the truth:





The legend that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the economy developed?

NEB, from what I can see that shows the *starting* economic outlook of that president. At least the images you’ve embedded in the post.

[N.E. Brigand]

How is it that despite this being the truth:

The legend that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the economy developed?

NEB, from what I can see that shows the *starting* economic outlook of that president. At least the images you’ve embedded in the post.

It is a bit confusing, but no: when creating that graphic, users have the option of "starting [each] president's economic clock" at either the beginning of the term, six months into the term, or one year into the term. In this case, the first option was chosen.

But the data is from that moment until the end of the president's term (or if the other options were selected, until six months or one year, respectively, into the next president's term).

[RoseMorninStar]

I'm glad you cleared that up NE. That is confusing.