Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[N.E. Brigand]

As you may know, Roger Waters of the band Pink Floyd supports Russia's invasion:



I appreciate this analysis of how Waters likely reached this point, because it contains some wise thoughts applicable to lots of people:

His comments about the US reveal his totally reductive world view, the US is the greatest evil in the world therefore anyone he thinks is in opposition to the US must be on the right side. . . . [T]he root of this is what I like to call "traumatic moral injury", where an individual suffers such a severe moral injury from an event or series of events (often legitimately) they start seeing the entire world through the lens of that injury. So to accept that the source of authority they perceive to be responsible for that injury might actually not be bad all the time is impossible, so they have to justify and deny the activities of anyone they see as in opposition to those who have done them harm.

There's a lot more at the link, including thoughts on how the internet magnifies the problem. Any one of us could start down such paths if we're not careful.

[N.E. Brigand]

Per the latest New York Times reporting on the war, a U.N. investigation has found that Russia has been torturing prisoners in Ukraine.

[Sunsilver]

N.E., they are a bit slow on the uptake to only be reporting this now:
Posted by me September 18th.

As Ukrainian troops take back Izium mass graves are being found. It is very evident from the exhumed bodies that many were tortured before being killed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... lice-chief

Western media has said they are 'shocked'. [massive eyeroll]

Seriously, have they REALLY forgotten Mauripol and Bucha? What did you expect??

[N.E. Brigand]

Well, the Times reporting there is about the U.N. finding. It's sort of like the difference between reporting over the past year that Donald Trump is alleged to have taken government documents to Mar-a-Lago and reporting over the past six weeks that the government seized government documents that Trump took to Mar-a-Lago.

- - - - - - - - - -
In response to Elon Musk's proposals, someone shared this French map of Ukraine from 1919:



Edited to add: And this map shows the percentage of the population of what is now Ukraine (partly occupied by Russia) who voted to be part of an independent Ukraine in 1991:

[Frelga]

I fully support restoring Russia to its historical borders. Although returning Moscow to its original status as a remote outpost of Kievan Rus would be more trouble than it's worth.

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[RoseMorninStar]

[River]

My husband sent me this. Will no one think of those poor cartographers??

[Sunsilver]

ROTFLOL!! OMG< that's priceless! And they did pretty good Russian accents, too!

[Frelga]

Yes, they get extra points for pronouncing the R sound.

Also. I'm pretty sure it's more of Ukrainian media trolling, but Japan has been making noises about the Kurils and Sakhalin since the Soviets took them.

Screenshot_20221007-221906.png (337.72 KiB) Viewed 1605 times

[RoseMorninStar]

My husband sent me this. Will no one think of those poor cartographers??

What? The cartographer doesn't just have a sharpie handy?


Was that here I read about 2 Russians sailing to Alaska & asking for asylum?

[Frelga]

Literally me right now. Not clear what happened yet.

Screenshot_20221008-065638.png (548.77 KiB) Viewed 1568 times

Eta:nHuh. I guess it's true. Still not clear how it happened, but the what is confirmed by a lot of visual evidence.

[River]

Has there been any confirmed partisan activity in this war? This seems like something partisans would do. Then again, Ukrainian special forces have been credited with lots of things randomly blowing up in Crimea of late. Someone tell me why Ukraine even needs long range missiles again?

I saw a video of what looked very much like a truck blowing up on the roadway. And another of a very auspiciously timed boat passing under the bridge. Whatever blew the roadway, it blew right as a train loaded with fuel came by.

[Inanna]

I realized now what a sleepless time you must be going through, Frelga. Hugs.

[Frelga]

It's not at all clear what happened to the bridge. The boat in the video appears to be a wave breaking on the support. The truck appears to be still driving when the explosion begins. If missiles, then what kind? An unnamed source said it was special forces, but unnamed sources are rarely reliable, or real.

There's also a non-negligible possibility that this is the work of Wagner mercenaries, as part of a power grab by Prigozhin. Wagner-affiliated accounts have been pushing for replacing Shoigu and Gerasimov with Prigozhin's buddies. Because the current government is not sufficiently genocidal for their liking.

I realized now what a sleepless time you must be going through, Frelga. Hugs.

Thank you I'm trying not to dwell on things that are far outside my control.

[RoseMorninStar]

I'm trying not to dwell on things that are far outside my control.

A wise choice.

Some have speculated that it could have been something as simple as a cigarette tossed out a window near a highly flammable source, but I believe it was Putin's birthday and he was very proud of that bridge which makes it suspicious.

[Sunsilver]

Interesting article - an interview with Mikk Marran, director of Estonia's Intelligence Service:

“We tried to inform our partners and different leaders many, many years ago,” he says. “But, of course, some of them thought that we are typical schizophrenic Balts who just scream about Russia. So I don’t know whether they didn’t believe us or whether they didn’t want to believe us, but now everything is on the table.”

Marran has overseen people who have been in Välisluureamet for almost 30 years, nearly the entirety of its existence, since Estonia became independent again following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which invaded the Baltics in 1940 as part of a deal between Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler to carve up Eastern Europe. I have never met an Estonian who doesn’t somehow consider their collective trauma of the not-too-distant past as part of their identity: the Stalinist deportations of grandparents or parents, the suppression of Estonian culture, and the ever-present fear that someday, if they are not careful, it might all return.

He is convinced Ukraine will win the war:

How will the war end?

“Ukraine is going to win,” Marran says without hesitation. “They have to win because for Ukraine, it’s an independence war. It’s not just a regional conflict, and that’s why they are highly motivated.” Though he is less certain of when, exactly, that victory will come.

This was the biggest, nastiest surprise from the interview:

Putin aims to whittle away at European consensus on sanctions and his own geopolitical isolation by exacting prohibitively high costs for them. It’s the one war of attrition he may still be capable of winning. Energy prices are set to rise even higher this winter, now that OPEC has joined with Russia in agreeing to cut its daily production levels by 2 million barrels.

Wait: WHAT?? I have an oil furnace and am still paying off last winter's heating bill!! This SUCKS!! Gas prices have come down from the very high levels they were at last winter, but they are still quite high ($1.60 plus a litre).

Just WHY is OPEC doing this? Apparently, prices have been falling lately, and they want to stop the fall:'

What has OPEC decided and why?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, including Russia, on Wednesday agreed to slash output by two million barrels per day (bpd) just ahead of the peak winter season.

The OPEC+ member states cut production starting in November after gathering for their first face-to-face meeting at their Vienna headquarters since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The group said the decision was based on the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economy and oil market outlooks”. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stressed the group’s stated role as a guardian of stable energy markets.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/ ... production

[RoseMorninStar]

Action on climate change and green energy IS a national security issue. Countries/OPEC wouldn't have the same stranglehold.

As hard as it is, it's 'easy' to win a war. Ukraine has already 'won' the war and as a result Russia has been shown to be less militarily/strategically superior than thought. What is hard, and can take decades/never be achieved, is winning the peace.

I'm sorry to hear about your heating bills Sunny.

[Sunsilver]

Some of my e-friends are making fun of the new electric cars. They just don't get it, and of course, the petroleum producers are doing their best to convince them these cars just are not going to work.

Probably the same thing the buggy manufacturers did when the 'horseless carriage' first came on the scene...

[Frelga]

This is my street, I used to live a couple blocks from there.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yikes, Frelga.