2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Dave_LF]

That sounds like the event Matt Fuller witnessed from the other side of the window/door/whatever

[Dave_LF]

CBS reports that the cabinet is having discussions about invoking the 25th
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1346993660718698496

[N.E. Brigand]

That sounds like the event Matt Fuller witnessed from the other side of the window/door/whatever

I see where Fuller quote-tweets someone describing the same incident, and it's actually the same person whose video I mentioned.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Oh my god, Rand Paul is making sense. What is this world coming to?

[Frelga]

Hawley is talking and Romney behind him looks like he's about to haul off and punch him in the face.

[Dave_LF]

I'll bet it wouldn't be the first time that happened to him.

[N.E. Brigand]

CBS reports that the cabinet is having discussions about invoking the 25th
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1346993660718698496

This is the relevant section. Note that Congress still has to act (and even now most Republicans in Congress won't want to):

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Does "principal officers of the executive departments" mean only Cabinet members or does it include other so-called Cabinet-level officials? Per Wikipedia, the latter at present includes the White House Chief of Staff, the United States Trade Representative, the Director of National Intelligence, the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration.

Let's assume it's just Vice President Mike Pence plus the fifteen members of the Cabinet. Somewhere I read that Acting members don't count for this purpose. But do they count when determining how many constitutes a majority of the Cabinet? There are presently three acting members: Chris Miller as Secretary of Defense, Jeff Rosen as Attorney General, and Chad Wolf as Director of Homeland Security. Do we need eight members to support Trump's removal or only seven? Let's assume it's seven from the following twelve members:

Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State)
Steven Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury)
David Bernhardt (Secretary of the Interior)
Sonny Perdue (Secretary of Agriculture)
Wilbur Ross (Secretary of Commerce)
Eugene Scalia (Secretary of Labor)
Alex Azar (Secretary of Health and Human Services)
Ben Carson (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
Elaine Chao (Secretary of Transportation)
Dan Brouilllette (Secretary of Energy)
Betsy DeVos (Secretary of Education)
Robert Wilkie (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

So seven of them plus Pence would have to tell Congress in writing that Trump can't do his job and they've invoked the fourth part of the 25th Amendment. Then Trump writes Congress and tells them he's fine. Then the seven plus Pence have to write Congress again and say: no really, he's not fit. And then Congress gets to vote.

Seems pretty cumbersome. As Josh Marshall says, what's supposed to happen in a situation like this is that the senior members of the President's party tell him to resign.

[N.E. Brigand]

Been seeing this line of thought get pushed a lot today. Considering that it seems that the police may have shot and killed a white woman, perhaps it is not the best time to push that particular narrative, eh?

KUSI has identified the dead woman as a 14-year veteran of the Air Force. My condolences to her family on their loss, but, and this is a completely serious question:

Is she a terrorist who was shot while trying to overthrow the United States government?

[River]

I saw that look Romney gave Hawley and felt part of my life expectancy wither away. He must've taken lessons from my SiL's tortie. Good lord. If that glare had a smell you'd keep it in a fumehood.

Seems pretty cumbersome. As Josh Marshall says, what's supposed to happen in a situation like this is that the senior members of the President's party tell him to resign.

Perhaps they have and he has refused?

[yovargas]

That is not the relevant question when discussing her death. If she was shot by police, the only relevant question should be - was she armed and posing an immediate threat? I know there's a lot of shit going on right now but I certainly hope we all don't forget that is a question that needs to be answered.

xpost with River

[Frelga]

I would say that the people who break into to the seat of the government by force do present a clear and immediate threat.

Had the police reacted as they did to the far more peaceful BLM protests, the mob wound never have gotten near the building and perhaps the woman would be alive now. Regardless of what we ultimately learn about the circumstances of her death.

I do want to know who was giving order to the Capitol police. Why were they not suited up or provided with riot gear? If I could predict this happening, surely people who are in charge of Capitol security could as well.

Eta: Maxine Waters

Yes! We must investigate the security breach at the Capitol today. I warned our Caucus and had an hour long conversation with the Chief of Police 4days ago. He assured me the terrorists would not be allowed on the plaza & Capitol secured. What the hell?

[N.E. Brigand]

Who won the civil war?

Ken White, who is normally pretty quick to call out the imprecise use of legal terms, wrote this two hours ago:

"Question: can an enemy force defeated a century and a half ago and dissolved be an enemy for purposes of the treason statute?"

Photo from today (source):



It's generally understood that a charge of treason requires a declaration of war, but is that entirely true?

Suppose an American citizen in 1941 aided the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor by, say, cutting a few telephone lines or sabotaging anti-aircraft guns. It wasn't until a day or two after the bombing that the U.S. officially declared war. Would that person be safe from a treason indictment?

(I'm not sure that the insurrectionists in the Civil War of 1861-1865, which some Trump supporters like the man pictured above seem intent on reviving -- the "Boogaloo" movement, for instance, takes its name from the largely forgotten 1980s movie Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo because they see themselves as creating a sequel to the work of Jefferson Davis & Co. -- were actually legally considered to have committed treason. I believe the position of the United States government was that it wasn't at war with the secessionist states because they weren't a country. But they were roundly condemned as "traitors" from Ulysses S. Grant on down.)

[Frelga]

Oh, but they arrested WaPo journalists. What the actual hell?

https://twitter.com/ZoeannMurphy/status ... 27296?s=19

[N.E. Brigand]

[...] it seems that the police may have shot and killed a white woman [...]

I won't link to it, but on Twitter, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Media posted a link (at 6:48 p.m. EST) to disturbing Instagram video of the woman being killed. It's not clear from the video whether she was shot by police or by another revolutionary.* It's a very crowded room and we only see her clearly after a gunshot is heard. As best I can tell, she was climbing through a broken window separating two rooms when she was shot, but again, it's very hard to make out what's happening.

After it happens, someone can be heard saying "We've got an active shooter here," but I don't know if that's accurate.

*Apparently that's how the group thinks of themselves: here's video of a different woman talking to a reporter about why she was there today: "We're storming the Capitol. It's a revolution!" (On the other hand, as police were clearing out the Capitol area this evening, one member of this mob was heard by the same reporter yelling, "Don't forget who backs the blue. It's us! That's why we're mad.")

Edited to add: As for the question of whether these revolutionaries would have been treated differently had they been Black Lives Matter or Antifa protesters, I can't say for sure, but here's video of people who stormed the Capitol today leaving without being arrested.

The Wall Street Journal reports that it was indeed the Capitol Police who shot her.

The Daily Beast reports that she frequently posted QAnon messages on social media and believed that today was "The Storm" (a term I think I first encountered in January 2017, long before I heard of QAnon), the long foretold date on which all that conspiracy's prophecies would come true and the supposed Democratic Satan-worshipping pedophiles would be brought to justice and executed following a violent insurrection led by Donald Trump and the not-really-dead JFK Jr.

None of this is to say that the cop who shot her made the right call. Just because she was arguably a terrorist attempting to overthrow the United States government doesn't mean she presented an imminent threat to that officer. (And I don't believe Washington D.C. has a "stand your ground" law.) The incident should be investigated, and if appropriate, prosecuted like any other shooting by police.

But let's be honest: it was really Donald Trump who killed her.

[Dave_LF]

Just because she was arguably a terrorist attempting to overthrow the United States government doesn't mean she presented an imminent threat to that officer. (And I don't believe Washington D.C. has a "stand your ground" law.) The incident should be investigated, and if appropriate, prosecuted like any other shooting by police.

What if it were Iraqi terrorists storming the Capitol? Would these sorts of concerns apply then? I don't think the question is why did this woman get shot, it's why *didn't* the rest of them?

[N.E. Brigand]

CBS reports that the cabinet is having discussions about invoking the 25th
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1346993660718698496

This is the relevant section. Note that Congress still has to act (and even now most Republicans in Congress won't want to):

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Does "principal officers of the executive departments" mean only Cabinet members or does it include other so-called Cabinet-level officials? Per Wikipedia, the latter at present includes the White House Chief of Staff, the United States Trade Representative, the Director of National Intelligence, the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration.

Let's assume it's just Vice President Mike Pence plus the fifteen members of the Cabinet. Somewhere I read that Acting members don't count for this purpose. But do they count when determining how many constitutes a majority of the Cabinet? There are presently three acting members: Chris Miller as Secretary of Defense, Jeff Rosen as Attorney General, and Chad Wolf as Director of Homeland Security. Do we need eight members to support Trump's removal or only seven? Let's assume it's seven from the following twelve members:

Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State)
Steven Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury)
David Bernhardt (Secretary of the Interior)
Sonny Perdue (Secretary of Agriculture)
Wilbur Ross (Secretary of Commerce)
Eugene Scalia (Secretary of Labor)
Alex Azar (Secretary of Health and Human Services)
Ben Carson (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
Elaine Chao (Secretary of Transportation)
Dan Brouilllette (Secretary of Energy)
Betsy DeVos (Secretary of Education)
Robert Wilkie (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

So seven of them plus Pence would have to tell Congress in writing that Trump can't do his job and they've invoked the fourth part of the 25th Amendment. Then Trump writes Congress and tells them he's fine. Then the seven plus Pence have to write Congress again and say: no really, he's not fit. And then Congress gets to vote.

Seems pretty cumbersome. As Josh Marshall says, what's supposed to happen in a situation like this is that the senior members of the President's party tell him to resign.

Update:

Josh Barro of Business Insider makes a very important point: Congress doesn't have to do anything, because the text of the 25th Amendment says that Congress doesn't have to decide until "twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration."

So we just need Mike Pence plus seven Cabinet members to make this move, and then to stand their ground when Trump objects, and the clock runs out. Pence remains the Acting President until January 20. Trump couldn't pardon his family or his cronies or himself. Trump couldn't declare martial law. Trump couldn't do squat.

This is the perfect time to invoke the 25th Amendment. Do it!

[Sunsilver]

Her name was Ashli Babbitt, and here's the video of the moment she was shot. The Capitol police were trying to prevent the rioters from breaching any further into the Capitol building, and unfortunately, she just happened to be the first to try.

The President Trump supporter killed in the Capitol building Wednesday was an Air Force vet from California who tweeted a day earlier how “nothing will stop us” and “the storm is here.”

Ashli Babbitt, who had 14 years in the service and did four tours of duty, was married and lived near San Diego, her husband Aaron told KUSI-TV.

She was also a supporter of Q-Anon

[Sunsilver]

[sarcasm font]Proof that ANTIFA was involved, as many Trump supporters are claiming [/sarcasm font]

[Túrin Turambar]

I’ve been listening to the proceedings in Congress. They’re not particularly exciting, and I’m not surprised that the Vice-President sounds like he’s dying of boredom. I wonder if he’ll get his deferred Florida vacation after all.

I predicted in November that Pence would be important, because he’s always been the link between the GOP establishment and Trump movement. Turns out that he wasn’t a particularly big player – McConnell’s decision not to support the challenges was probably the most significant event on the Republican side (and we’ve seen that tonight with the objections getting the support of the majority of the GOP House Caucus but getting crushed in the Senate). Pence never really had the option to do anything other than what he did today, but he could have caused further mischief had he attempted to ignore reality in the way many of the President’s supporters seem to be doing. He’s probably sacrificed his shot at the nomination in 2024, so I’ll give him that.

I woke up this morning, toddled over to my PC expecting to find Congress halfway through the certification process and instead was greeted with the scenes of all-out battle in Capitol. I have no idea what I’ll wake up to tomorrow.

[RoseMorninStar]

It's been a wild day. To say the least.