2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Túrin Turambar]

It is now 9pm Wednesday my local time, 5am EST. The electoral elves have been putting in a sterling effort in WI and they seem likely to make their 6am deadline. Biden now has the narrowest of leads, and as the outstanding ballots are from Green Bay and Milwaukee, his chances in the state look good. NYT is still unwilling to call NZ and NV, but both are looking likely for Biden. The other four states are anyone's guess, but if Biden can pull off WI he needs only one more.

It's a funny thing, but it's perfectly-possible for Biden to win all states still contested, which would be a comfortable Electoral College victory. He is likely to beat Clinton's popular vote edge. It would still be a polling miss, but still a win along the lines of Obama's 2012 performance. On the flipside, he could lose them all and leave us with a map very similar to 2016 with only AZ flipped. It's remarkable that both are still possible even at this late stage.

The bigger news is the President's claim of voter fraud and his insistence that's won a big victory. If Biden does win, this could get bad - really bad.

I honestly have no idea what I'll wake up to tomorrow.

[Cerin]

It's really not suspicious at all. We were repeatedly told in advance that the vote would not be all counted tonight. And I think that as a general matter, boards of election in urban areas are underfunded and understaffed compared to other districts.

And yet I can just imagine the reaction if three states controlled by Republicans where Trump had been expected to win easily but Biden was maintaining a consistent lead, suddenly and simultaneously halted the vote count for no apparent reason at an unusually early hour, and workers were observed carrying boxes of ballots out of the building. No one would have had a problem with that at all.

[Snowdog]

Hmm... a 270 Biden - 268 Trump finish?

[Dave_LF]

One of Biden's campaign managers, Rufus Gifford, just tweeted "We're going to win". That could just be "go team go!", but hopefully someone that official wouldn't say that sort of thing carelessly given where the race is right now.

He just tweeted it again, and this time I agree with him. It's possible PA won't even matter in the end, which would be a relief.

[yovargas]

It's really not suspicious at all. We were repeatedly told in advance that the vote would not be all counted tonight. And I think that as a general matter, boards of election in urban areas are underfunded and understaffed compared to other districts.

And yet I can just imagine the reaction if three states controlled by Republicans where Trump had been expected to win easily but Biden was maintaining a consistent lead, suddenly and simultaneously halted the vote count for no apparent reason at an unusually early hour, and workers were observed carrying boxes of ballots out of the building. No one would have had a problem with that at all.

I'd imagine the reaction amongst some might sound similar to this:

All of the swing states have Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, who will control the voting processes in those states. Eighty percent of votes will be cast on electronic voting machines that are owned by Republican-leaning corporations; the machines have no means of verification and have been proven easy to tamper with without detection. Because they are privately owned and their codes are proprietary, there is no public access. This is the way we value our right to vote in this country. I'd say we deserve whatever corrupt government such a corruptible system produces.

[Inanna]

Hmm... a 270 Biden - 268 Trump finish?

Yes, I think so. Hope so.

[Inanna]

If it’s 269-269 because of ME CD-2, ME is going to feel like an idiot.

[Dave_LF]

Stocks are very happy, with the major indexes up hundreds of points. Most encouraging to me is that the VIX volatility index aka "fear index" has dropped substantially, which I take to mean that some feared economically adverse event did not materialize. I can't say what that event was, but traders look to be feeling good about our economic future.

[Inanna]

Stocks are idiots.

[Dave_LF]

Well yes, but within its own domain...

[Inanna]

If it’s 269-269 because of ME CD-2, ME is going to feel like an idiot.

Didn’t realize NE is already split - and one vote is to Biden. So, 270-268.

[Cerin]

I'd imagine the reaction amongst some might sound similar to this:

All of the swing states have Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, who will control the voting processes in those states. Eighty percent of votes will be cast on electronic voting machines that are owned by Republican-leaning corporations; the machines have no means of verification and have been proven easy to tamper with without detection. Because they are privately owned and their codes are proprietary, there is no public access. This is the way we value our right to vote in this country. I'd say we deserve whatever corrupt government such a corruptible system produces.

I'm not sure what the voting machine situation in 2016 has to do with the vote count being abruptly stopped in 3 Democrat-run states last night for no apparent reason other than that they didn't like the results they were getting, but regarding the quote, I believe many states ended their reliance on electronic machines since the last election because of those concerns. I'm not sure of the specifics nationwide, but at least in my state, there is no longer an electronic option and we have gone to paper ballots.

[Inanna]

Cerin, the PA secretary essentially said: we have clearly laid out rules. And we will follow the rules to a T this time. Including the hours.

Frankly, I think that’s sensible. And that’s what the Supreme Court has been saying, there should be no last-minute/week/month changes. Pandemic or no. Immediate Clarity needed or no.

[Dave_LF]

Incidentally, Philadelphia did *not* halt counting overnight. They have live webcams of their poll workers to prove it. The whole accusation is just the usual social media bullshit.

[Cerin]

Incidentally, Philadelphia did *not* halt counting overnight. They have live webcams of their poll workers to prove it. The whole accusation is just the usual social media bullshit.

My post about vote-counting being stopped was based in part on a post by Voronwë which mentioned counting being stopped in certain places (I cannot now find that post), and then the on-line coverage I was listening to also mentioned three states stopping their vote count. My concerns were in real time last night and based on election coverage, not on whatever tales social media is spinning today (I have nothing to do with social media, other than HoF).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I do not believe that I have made any such post, though it is possible that I am forgetting something.

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[Voronwë the Faithful]

Gideon has conceded in Maine.

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[Maria]

The Missouri governor race-was conceded last night. We are stuck with Mike Parson for another term. He reminds me so much of the cartoon character "Droopy Dog". I tried to find someone else drawing that comparison but couldn't- but it is so apt. *sigh* I was really hoping for someone different.

[Sunsilver]

Well, this is sounding reassuring!

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/bidens-prospe ... 35469.html

[yovargas]

Not an election exactly but to my great surprise (not that I had been following anything to know what the expected outcome was), Florida has passed an amendment to increase the minimum wage to $15 over the next 5 years. I voted no on that myself, but it's really interesting how a policy that is generally considered quite far left would get past in a state that is usually voting for conservative representatives.