2020 Presidential Election

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Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Some of Klobuchar's will go to Warren, for sure. I don't think that many of either Klobuchar's or Buttigieg's supporters will go to Sanders. And Steyer didn't really have very many, since he put all of his marbles in South Carolina.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Warren and Bloomberg after tomorrow (or really, after all the votes from tomorrow are counted, since many from California and elsewhere that are done by mail won't be counted for days). I could easily see Warren staying in the race thinking that if the delegates are largely intractably split between Sanders and Biden, with a few to her and Bloomberg, that she would be best compromise candidate between them (even though philosophically she is much closer to Sanders than to Biden). And she has the campaign funds and national organization to continue to compete. Bloomberg, of course, has more money than a dog has fleas, so he can continue as long as he wants.
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Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Túrin Turambar »

As of a week and a half ago two million people had already voted in Super Tuesday states. So some of the result will already be decided regardless of recent developments.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by elengil »

Túrin Turambar wrote:As of a week and a half ago two million people had already voted in Super Tuesday states. So some of the result will already be decided regardless of recent developments.
Yeah, that's another head-scratcher... when people are no longer running but still on the ballots... We really need to get this sorted out better than we have it.
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was a 2020 planner.

"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Dave_LF »

elengil wrote:We really need to get this sorted out better than we have
That should be, like, our national motto.
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Inanna
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Inanna »

Dave_LF wrote:
elengil wrote:We really need to get this sorted out better than we have
That should be, like, our national motto.
ROFL!
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Frelga »

Yeah, my son voted by mail, for Buttigieg, and is bummed about a wasted vote.

Eta: morbid, but what happens if Sanders is nominated but has another heart attack before November?
His philosophy was a mixture of three famous schools -- the Cynics, the Stoics and the Epicureans -- and summed up all three of them in his famous phrase, 'You can't trust any bugger further than you can throw him, and there's nothing you can do about it, so let's have a drink."

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Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Here is how 538 was projecting the final pledged delegate totals, before Klobuchar's exit.
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Range of forecasted outcomes.png
Range of forecasted outcomes.png (52.77 KiB) Viewed 3240 times
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by elengil »

Inanna wrote:
Dave_LF wrote:
elengil wrote:We really need to get this sorted out better than we have
That should be, like, our national motto.
ROFL!
I'd vote for it.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.

"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by River »

Am irritated that all the choices left are too old to fly a commercial jet.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Faramond »

It's time for the Demmie awards for outstanding achievement in running for the Democratic nomination for president.

First up are the popular and controversial Demmies for Best Trump Impersonation (BTI).

BTI: "Mexico will pay for the wall" division -- The Demmie goes to E. Warren for her assertion that she could pay for Medicare for All without raising taxes on the middle class.

BTI: weird personal insult division -- The Demmie goes to J. Biden for his "dog-faced pony soldier" insult after someone asked a question he didn't like.

BTI: dictator love division -- The Demmie goes to B. Sanders for his lifelong admiration for various left-wing dictators. There is no authoritarian socialist state that he hasn't praised or made excuses for.

BTI: investigate my enemies division -- We have our first repeat winner as the Demmie here goes to E. Warren again for her promise to create a task force to investigate the Trump administration if she is elected president.

BTI: gormlessly walk into a trap set by your political opponent division -- Threepeat! E. Warren wins this one as well for finally letting Trump and his crass "Pocahontas" nickname get to her by having her DNA tested and pretending that it proved anything but that she was a massive fraud.

BTI: civil rights are worthless division -- Now we're getting to some of the really notorious BTI Demmies. This one goes to M. Bloomberg for his infamous and ineffective and grossly unconstitutional "stop and frisk" policy when mayor of New York.

BTI: party labels mean nothing division -- The second Demmie here for M. Bloomberg, who like Trump is a veteran party switcher and stretches the traditional definition of his current party.

BTI: petulant rage division -- We have a first time winner as A. Klobuchar gets the Demmie for her throwing of staplers at hapless staffers.

BTI: sexist asshole division -- We now have a tie at three each as M. Bloomberg takes the Demmie here.

BTI: I want to be king division -- The name of this one doesn't quite convey the sheer authoritarian awfulness one needs to achieve to win this one. This is the most notorious BTI-Demmie there is. And no surprise, we have a new leader as M. Bloomberg takes the Demmie for his fourth in the Trump category.

BTI: overall winner for Best Trump Impersonation -- Was this ever really in doubt? Warren tried to make it close, but in addition to trailing Bloomberg 3 to 4, her wins came in comparatively less important categories. In fact, Warren is not the runner up here. That would be Sanders for his dictator love -- an underrated aspect of imitating Trump. But the winner, without a doubt, is M. Bloomberg.

****************

Now we get the Demmies for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Failing Utterly to be the Next Kennedy (OAF-FUNK). ( Kennedy is meant as a placeholder here for whoever a candidate was supposed to be like but wasn't actually like at all. )

OAF-FUNK-Barack Obama Division -- goes to K. Harris! She's multiracial! She's relatively young! She's a freshperson senator from a large state! So she's the next Obama, right? Too bad she was a terrible campaigner whose best moment (attacking Biden on bussing) she immediately stepped on by revealing her position was in reality almost the same as Biden's. And there was her terrible prosecutor record including withholding evidence. And there was the moment when she looked behind her for help when she was asked about her previous comments on Smollet after the attack on him was revealed to be a hoax.

OAF-FUNK-Hillary Clinton Division -- goes to E. Warren, for being an older plan-having woman who was supposed to be the new her in "I'm with her!" Unfortunately Warren had a plan for everything except how to convince voters she would make a good president. Clinton was way savvier than Warren ever could be. Or maybe it's just that Warren's husband was never President.

OAF-FUNK-Bob Dole Division -- okay, this is a little strange, because Bob Dole is a Republican and the winner of this award may yet actually win the nomination. But it won't be as easy as Dole's nomination win was if it happens. Anyway, the winner here is J. Biden for being the old guy who wasn't that inspiring but it was his turn so he'd go ahead and win it pretty easily. Too bad it won't be easy.

OAF-FUNK-Bernie Sanders Division -- goes to E. Warren, for flirting with democratic socialism but not fully committing. (No, a "billionaire tears" mug won't get it done.) In doing so she scared away most of the weirdos AND most of the straights (in an economic sense).

OAF-FUNK-Donald Trump Division -- goes to M. Bloomberg for being rich in dollars but not rich in charisma or political skills. Bloomberg may be an actual billionaire unlike Trump but he's not really connecting with voters outside of those who have Stockholm syndrome from seeing all those ads.

OAF-FUNK-Paul Tsongas Division -- goes to P. Buttigieg for having a hard to spell last name. Runner up is Klobuchar. And yes, this is really stretching the whole OAF-FUNK category. Time for a new category.

****************

Now we get to the straight up Best Of category. Simple and fun!

Best Commercial -- the Demmie goes to J. Biden for his unpantsing of Buttigieg in that long attack ad that contrasted their records. One question -- are we sure that the Vice President has more power than the governor of Indiana? Scratch that, mayor of Indianapolis. No wait, he was mayor of South Bend. What??

Best Wokery -- the Demmie goes to E. Warren for her insistence on using "Latinx" which is what all the wokest kids use, in spite of the fact that only 2% of Latinos/Hispanics actually prefer Latinx.

Best Ineffective Ad Spending -- the Demmie goes to T. Steyer for all the horrible ads he made the judges watch. And what did he get for all his spending? Only this lousy Demmie.

Best Candidacy That Should Have Gone a Lot Better -- C. Booker

Best Falling for the DNC's Adjusting the Debate Rules Trap -- M. Bloomberg takes the Demmie! Is there any doubt he would have been better off if the DNC hadn't changed the rules, or if he'd simply turned them down?

Best Complete Flame-out -- K. Gillibrand, in a richly deserved win.

Best Offbeat Candidate -- A. Yang takes the Demmie! Williamson and Gabbard fans are apoplectic!

Best "Maybe I'll Vote for Trump" Candidate -- Everyone thought the winner here would be Sanders, but as awful as Sanders is, there is another -- another who is worse -- (no, not Warren (she's 3rd worst)) -- another who is just as authoritarian as Trump -- but actually competent -- and he would likely have a good portion of the mainstream media behind him making him even scarier -- this most coveted of Demmies goes to M. Bloomberg.

Best "Settle for the Ugly Sibling" Candidate -- goes to J. Biden. The judges saw the writing on the wall and had to vote for Biden (talking real California vote here) just to stop Bloomberg and Sanders and the zombie remains of Warren's campaign. The judges really felt like they were settling though.

Best Candidate -- goes to A. Klobuchar. The best candidate couldn't even make it to Super Tuesday. Maybe next year.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by yovargas »

I suspect that many will find that post obnoxious, but if you wrote that yourself, I gotta commend the effort.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

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I thought it was brilliant.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by River »

yovargas wrote:I suspect that many will find that post obnoxious, but if you wrote that yourself, I gotta commend the effort.
I did not find it obnoxious. Or at least, I didn't find the writing obnoxious. The whole achey, twisty, "can't decide if I should laugh without humor or just burst into tears" feeling it left me with is extremely obnoxious. But that's not anyone's fault.
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Inanna
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Inanna »

Oh wow. That was awesome, Faramond!
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Griffon64 »

River wrote:Am irritated that all the choices left are too old to fly a commercial jet.
Word. Hopefully in the near future we see better generational representation in positions of power. I respect experience and the wisdom it can bring but I also look at the world and say, it has changed dramatically over the past 30 years and I don't think that over-representing any generation in positions of power will lead to a stable political situation in this changing world. A 70 year old simply can't have an intuitive understanding of what being in your mid-thirties, or forties, or twenties, means in a world where those people grew up with the internet, with the Great Recession, with huge college debt, without the natural economic boom that came after the war with increased government investment in infrastructure and social safety nets ( New Deal ), etc.

It starts at the grassroots - if you want to be treated fairly you need to make sure you get people who understand and represent your circumstances in positions of power. We got plenty of old white men who view the world through the experience they had in life, and colors the decisions they make for the rest of us with that experience. The other 85% * of the American population needs a voice too. I'd happily vote for an old white guy if he has a past demonstrating that he gets the challenges of lives not just like his. Empathy and a clear-eyed view of the world is possible no matter your demographic. I just don't see a whole lot of it.

Grassroots are grassroots. Look at your local government. Vote for the candidates who are fair and who bring a variety of experience to the table. It is not even that white men are somehow evil or selfish assholes or something. It is just that you don't know what you don't know and when you're overrepresented, the bubble you live in tends to be pretty sturdy. Most people I talk to, when made aware of the lives of others and the challenges that they themselves may not face, are empathic and understanding, and learn and judge differently going forward. But we'd never see that growth if we don't let different voices and experiences into the chambers of power to speak for themselves. Start local. Pay attention to your state representatives. Especially pay attention for who you vote to send to Congress.

* About 31% of the total population are white men. This includes everybody, from white male infants all the way up past Donald Trump. If you generally consider half of those "old", you get ~15%. But Millenials and Gen Z are pretty large generations, it is probably less.

PS: Nice one Faramond. You should chip in more often.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Griffon64 wrote:Nice one Faramond. You should chip in more often.
Absolutely. Not only was it witty and clever and insightful, it also led me to look at some things from a different angle than my own, which is always helpful and all too rare.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by yovargas »

Griffon64 wrote:PS: Nice one Faramond. You should chip in more often.
And you should take that advice as well. ;)
I wanna love somebody but I don't know how
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
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Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

:agree:

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Frelga »

IAWY&VTF

And also with Griffy who once again saves me the need to type a post of my own by saying it better.
His philosophy was a mixture of three famous schools -- the Cynics, the Stoics and the Epicureans -- and summed up all three of them in his famous phrase, 'You can't trust any bugger further than you can throw him, and there's nothing you can do about it, so let's have a drink."

Terry Pratchett, Small Gods
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Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Here's an oldie, but a goodie.

"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
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