2016 United States Election

[Lalaith]

Lali, the way to change the two party system is from the ground up, not from the top down. This is something that Bernie Sanders has noted. Until and unless third party choices first become viable in local races, they will not be relevant in national politics, except as Nader-like spoilers.

Well, that's an idea. I can look at the third-party candidates in our local elections and see what I can do. There was one guy, in particular, who sounded good, but I'll have to remember what he was running for. That'll be my research project today/tonight.

Dave, yeah. You know, if the Republicans had put up Kasich, I probably would've voted for him over Clinton. Probably. I don't know.

Benghazi is huge among my family and friends. It's like she personally murdered those people with her own hands.

[River]

Trump is, well, I don't need to rehash what he is. You all know. So, for me, he can say all he wants about certain policies and those things might sound good, but he simply can't be trusted to actually do any of those things, let alone competently handle the affairs of this nation, both at home and abroad. He's emotionally unstable and dangerous.

He also had his Twitter taken away.

And this is the man in the running for the launch codes.

[Frelga]

John Scalzi today:
"When in doubt, vote against the people and parties who try to make it harder for American citizens to vote."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Good news is that even Nate Silver is starting to increase his estimate of Clinton's chances, as a series of National polls all come in showing her with a similar 3-6% lead. He currently has her at 67.9%, a modest 3.3 percentage points up from the low point a couple of days ago.

Bad news is that he is now showing the GOP as favorites to retain control of the Senate. He currently lists the odds of the GOP retaining control at 53.4%, the highest since July 30.

[Dave_LF]

Yup. For some reason much ink has been spilled this cycle about the end of the Republican party, but they have a very real chance to emerge with full control of the federal government in addition to their continued dominance of state and local governments.

[Beutlin]

If you are interested, a Facebook study on the US presidential election:

http://blog.storyclash.com/analysis-of- ... tion-2016/

PS: It should be pointed out that I know one the authors.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Very interesting read, Beutlin. Thank you for sharing it.

[Túrin Turambar]

It's a tough place to be in Lalaith. I've tried to imagine what I'd do if the Democrats had nominated a genuine lunatic while the GOP put up someone like Pence, and the answer is that I don't know. But if it helps you relax, Ohio is probably not going to be the state that determines the winner. If Clinton wins there, it will mean she's winning all the other close states too.

It's an interesting counterfactual. Another one is how you (generic you) vote if Donald Trump happened to be advocating every policy position you agree with while still showing the same erratic behaviour and personal and professional issues. It gives you an idea of the position anti-free trade, anti-illegal immigration voters find themselves in.

On the actual election, I think a narrow Clinton win is looking likely. Florida may go to a recount (again!) but it looks far more likely Clinton will pull together the necessary electoral votes than Trump, even if she loses the Sunshine State.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I now believe that she will not only win, but win fairly big. I think she will hold on to all of the rust belt states, win Florida and NC by small but comfortable margins, and also win Nevada and NH, AND Ohio. I think she will fall just short in Iowa and Arizona. And Alaska, a surprisingly competitive state.

[Dave_LF]

I said last week I thought she'd need to be up by about 3 points in the final polls to feel comfortable; the near-final 538 model has it at 3.5. She will probably win. She's more likely to win big than she is to lose. But with so many states within a point or three, there's a pretty good chance there will be a few surprise outcomes at the state level, in either direction. It should be a good election to watch, at any rate.

ETA: Clinton currently leads by 28.6 points in New Hampshire with 1 location reporting.

[Maria]

I voted. 13 minutes total: from getting into line, voting and walking out the door.

It was raining. I think that helped the line length.

[Dave_LF]

Final 538 polls-only prediction:

538.jpg (79.41 KiB) Viewed 3958 times

"Polls-plus" is nearly identical (it makes Clinton's chances 0.4 points better)

[Primula Baggins]

Come on, America. Let's do this thing.

[Inanna]

Yes.

I can't argue for Hillary with my Indian friends & family anymore. I'm exhausted. They are not for Trump, but the whole thing of spouting her being corrupt etc is just bloody depressing. And I'm not even a citizen. How did I get so involved in this country's politics?


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[Primula Baggins]

If I had to guess, I would say it's because you can see that President Trump would be a nightmare for immigrants, and many others in this country. And elsewhere. :|

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And everyone.

Moody's Analytics analysis: Trump presidency would 'significantly' hurt economy

[Frelga]

How did I get so involved in this country's politics?


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To quote Peter Quill, aka the Star-Lord, because I'm one of the idiots who live there.

[Lalaith]

Done! It took me about 45 minutes. Now we wait.

[Inanna]

If I had to guess, I would say it's because you can see that President Trump would be a nightmare for immigrants, and many others in this country. And elsewhere. :|

I got involved with Obama, and the gay marriage thing - I landed here in 2006 and 2008 swept me up. And Jon Stewart and Bill Maher. And NY Times articles. The level of political discourse in this country is higher than that in India. That propelled me into it, I think.

What I really meant was "More involved here than I ever was in India". That is likely an age thing too.
And a reflection of the daily things running smoothly. In India, my main concern was how long I will be stuck in this bloody traffic jam.

[Inanna]

Done! It took me about 45 minutes. Now we wait.