TH: DOS Box Office Watch

[JewelSong]

I saw AUJ three times at the cinema, once in 3D and twice regular. It held my interest and seemed to at least have been infused with the spirit of Tolkien for much of the time.

DOS seemed like someone had waved a bottle of the spirit of Tolkien over it once...maybe.

I was actually bored.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Interesting, because quite a few people I know had exactly the opposite experience, of being bored through much of AUJ, and much more engaged by DoS. Neither is "right" or "wrong"; I just find it interesting that people would have such differing experiences.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

A very good day at the box office yesterday, actually up 12.8% from Christmas day, and higher than the equivalent day for AUJ. Deadline also notes that the film is over $500 million internationally.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/christm ... in-follow/

[Voronwë the Faithful]

DoS passed $200 million yesterday in North America. Over $625 million worldwide (probably closer to $650 million).

[Alatar]

The Extended Edition Hobbit is still pretty much impossible to find here since just before Christmas. Every time they get stock in it sells out immediately. In fact, even the standard edition is very hard to find. Somebody is laughing all the way to the bank!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

DoS passed the $750 million threshold worldwide this weekend (as well as the $225 million threshold in North America). The billion dollar holy grail still appears to be possible, but I think it is probably going to fall a little short, unless it does extremely good business in Japan and particularly China.

[Passdagas the Brown]

LOTR, and I believe AUJ as well, tends to do very well in Japan, doesn't it? Not sure about China.

And don't ask me why I don't just google it myself instead of asking you all to google it...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

AUJ made just under $50 million in China, and in Japan a little over $19. I think in order for DoS to make it to a million, that total would need to increase significantly, to approach $100 million between the two of them.

ROTK in contrast, made only $10 million in China, but $90 million in Japan. Seems like a shocking difference, but apparently Hollywood films in general don't make nearly as much in Japan as they used to.

Edit:

TTT - China $3 million, Japan $65 million
FOTR - China $7 million, Japan $68 million

Second edit:

Doing a little bit more investigating, Gravity has made $70 million in China as of 12/22, with over half of that coming its opening weekend. Japan, in contrast, has only generated $3.6 million. Pretty shocking.

[sauronsfinger]

As of 1/15 SMAUG has hit 810 million world wide. If we assume the most optimistic and say it takes in another $100 from China and Japan when it is released there, that still is almost another 100 it still has to make up world wide and that will be rather difficult. An overall take of 950 or so now seems the most realistic.

That is still amazing and a certified HIT. One billion after all is an arbitrary goal.

The question then becomes how does this impact Jackson and the film he puts together for the big conclusion? Is he willing to accept less than the billion dollar target or will pick-ups in May be impacted so that it turns into more of the box office draw they were hoping for?

[Gorthaur the Cruel]

The question then becomes how does this impact Jackson and the film he puts together for the big conclusion? Is he willing to accept less than the billion dollar target or will pick-ups in May be impacted so that it turns into more of the box office draw they were hoping for?

Is a billion dollars actually a target that's been set (by him or the studios)?

If not then I doubt the pretty tasty $900m-ish take will have any impact on how he cuts TaBA.

Even if it is, I'm sure he would only make the film he wants to make.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I agree with your estimates, sf, particularly since the number of screenings in the domestic market has been slashed by a much a higher degree this weekend than for the corresponding weekend for AUJ.

However, I don't think it will have any effect on TABA. First of all, the pickups that will take place are going to be much more limited than last year; the film is largely set. More importantly, the first two films will have made roughly 2 billion dollars, exactly what the studio was hoping for. I doubt they care that much whether the second hits the exact number. Finally, the biggest change to the first two films from the three film split was invented climaxes. That won't happen here.

[Passdagas the Brown]

How do you know the pick-ups will be more limited? PJ could be plotting out the arrival of the 12th army led by the anonymous Blue Wizards, for all we know!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Inside information.

[yovargas]

Even if he wanted to change it specifically to make it more profitable, what would that even mean? Asides from just trying to make a good movie, I don't know what one would try to do to get the uninterested interested again.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

He could decide not to kill off the hot dwarves.

[yovargas]

I bet if Cameron hadn't killed Jack at the end of Titanic, it would have made half as much money.

[Primula Baggins]

That's because the Titanic demographic likes to cry at movies.

Not sure the Hobbit demographic does, so much.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

To be clear, I was NOT suggesting that Jackson WILL change TABA so that Thorin, Fili, and Kili don't die. They will.

[Primula Baggins]

They had better.

Incidentally, I don't mind crying at movies.

[Passdagas the Brown]

I only like to cry at inappropriate places, like cocktail parties.