The 2012 US Election

Post by **Teremia** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:23 am

psst, vison, babies are cute but I vaguely remember them being lots of work.

I say we go with the Hobbit obsession option.

Post by **Frelga** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:44 am

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:Did you read the link that I posted to? As Snopes quotes the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

But elections officials in Ohio's Hamilton and Williams counties -- the only two of Ohio's 88 counties that use equipment made by Hart InterCivic -- as well as company representatives say there's no way such meddling could occur.

Both counties use a paper balloting system in which results are tallied by scanners made by Hart InterCivic. All programming of the machines, diagnostic testing, and vote tabulation is done by elections staff in each county and no vote tabulation is done over the Internet, county election board representatives say. The paper ballots are there as backup and can be recounted with Democratic and Republican party representatives on hand.

"There is no truth to the idea that anyone could get into our system and tamper with the results," said Hamilton County elections board deputy director Sally Krisel.
I think that answers both of your questions.

No, actually it doesn't, because I was not referring specifically to the alleged Romney involvement. If it were true, it would generate too much scrutiny.

I am not too concerned with paper ballot/optical scan machines such as the article describes. That's what my county uses, and they leave a paper trail that permits a recount. The model that generate the most concern are the direct-recording devices.

I don't have time to go into the details right now, but check out the Wiki page for Premier Election Solutions (formerly Diebold) for a list of security concerns. The design flaws permit tampering in favor of either party, although it is worth noting that it's former CEO O'Dell was a major fund raiser for Bush. I wold stress that such tampering does not require some widespread conspiracy.

Post by **WampusCat** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:55 am

vison, forget babies and hobbits ... go for kittens!

Post by **River** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:14 am

Post by **anthriel** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:05 pm

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:
yovargas wrote:You'll notice that while I was the one who called for facts and evidence, I was far, far too lazy to actually go looking for them.
I guess you got your attorney to do it.

True, that. Attorneys can be useful creatures, I must say...

Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:21 pm

Frelga wrote:No, actually it doesn't, because I was not referring specifically to the alleged Romney involvement.

Ah, I thought that you were referring to the specific isssue that we were discussing. There certainly are some questions about some of the systems, particularly those of Diebold (which no long exists, having been bought out by Dominion Voting Systems). However, there has never been any evidence of actual hacking of votes in any U.S. elections. Is it possible that it has happened, or will happen? Sure. But based on the available evidence, I doubt it. (Here's a recent article at the Huff Post on the subject.)

In other news, Nate Silver's overnight update to his calculations showed a surprisingly sharp increase in his estimate of President Obama's chances of reelection, from 72.9% to 77.4%, the highest it has been since October 7 (4 days after the first debate). He hasn't posted his daily blog post yet, so I don't know what the reasons are. I'm curious to see what caused the sharp uptick (the only larger single day change was from Oct. 11 to Oct 12 when it went from 66.1% to 61,1%, the lowest that it had been since June 5, when it was at 59.9%). I suspect it must relate to positive (for the president) polling in Ohio.

Edited to add: Wampus, that picture is insanely cute.

Post by **River** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:33 pm

Your suspicion is correct. From Silver's twitter feed:

Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those.

Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:44 pm

Ah, thanks! (I don't know why twitter is the one bastion of social media that I have avoided altogether. It just seems like it has the ability to suck one in.)

Post by **vison** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:45 pm

Gov.Christe is a HERO, and the reaction to his praise of Pres makes me sick. He iis demonstrating what could be: bipartisanship in the name of America, These insane Gop and other rightwingers are almost calling him a traitor.

If you guys knew how difficult it is for me to type on this Machine of Mordor, you would be impressed.

Post by **Dave_LF** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:13 pm

Christe may be bipartisan, but he may also just be shrewd (or both, naturally). He's got a good chance of running for president himself in 2016, but not if Romney wins next week. And in the other direction, if Obama wins this year but is succeeded by a Republican in 2016 (as seems likely given the turn-taking mentality out there), I'd imagine he'd rather it be Christie than someone like Ryan. Each has incentive to help the other.

Post by **Lalaith** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:00 pm

His event Tuesday, touted as a "storm relief" effort, did not mention politics at all. "We have heavy hearts, as you know, with all of the suffering going on in a major part of our country," he said at an appearance near Dayton, Ohio, before collecting and boxing donations to be sent to New Jersey. He spent slightly under an hour on the effort.

(This is from Voronwë's link on the previous page about Romney campaigning anyway.)

This is the event Freddy worked yesterday. It was in Kettering, Ohio where he is a police officer.

Romney did not mention politics during that brief stop. (Didn't feel brief to Freddy who stood outside for 5+ hours in the bitter cold, rain, and wind!)

I don't know. What's he supposed to do? He doesn't have the advantage of the incumbency where he can still look and be important even when not out in front of the public. He can't exactly go into New York or New Jersey and help during the midst of the storm. That would make him a burden rather than a help.

I guess I'm not willing to castigate the man for doing something, however small it may be.

Oh, and I love kittens!

Post by **vison** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:45 pm

of course Christie is shrewd. but he,s shrewd in the right way and I admire his gumption. IMHO what Romney should have sid would be something like; the president and i don't agree on politics but be assured we are100% behind efforts to fix this mess. As far as i know he just went into some weird mindset and s eemed to hope it will all just go away.

had he been pres, what would he have done? I just watched him dance off a plane and call Jeb Bush a hero. Why is Jeb Bush a hero?

Post by **Dave_LF** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:55 pm

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:Ah, thanks! (I don't know why twitter is the one bastion of social media that I have avoided altogether. It just seems like it has the ability to suck one in.)

I was the same way until a week ago, when I signed up to follow a bunch of pollsters and election bloggers. My phone has been buzzing constantly since then.

Not sure if I'll keep using it after this thing is over.

Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:05 pm

Lalaith wrote:Romney did not mention politics during that brief stop.

It had all the trapping of a campaign event, including the biographical video touting Gov. Romney's candidacy, the country music performer, the cheering supporters, and yes, criticism of the president. Don't say it isn't campaigning when it clearly is. And the donations of boxes of food that he was generating at this event were despite the fact that the Red Cross discourages donations of canned goods and requests money or blood instead. I'm sorry but it is impossible for me to see this as him doing what he can to help. It is him trying to appear like he is doing what he can to help, when he is actually just campaigning. It defines Gov. Romney for me because it is a perfect example of his trying to be both sides of the coin.

And then there are his new ads about Chrysler and GM shipping jobs to China. Even within the metrics of this campaign they take credibility to a new level.

Post by **Lalaith** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:48 pm

Well, you see one thing, and I see another. <shrug>

I am voting for Romney, and you are not. So that probably explains a lot.

Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:50 pm

And I like you, and you like me.

So there you go!

Post by **Lalaith** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:54 pm

I know! It's a beautiful thing.

(And you know I'm not voting for Romney unreservedly, but there it is.)

Post by **River** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:58 pm

Christie's canny enough he had to know there'd be backlash and spoke up anyway. So I suspect he decided it was better for him in general if he appeared to be on the side of New Jersey rather than on the side of the pundits.

What I find utterly hilarious is the guy who headed FEMA when Katrina hit criticizing the Sandy response as too fast. And while I admit ti did seem weird to declare a federal disaster zone before the storm made landfall, doing so meant that local governments could start tapping into the federal system the instant they needed to. Which, incidentally, is why Christie is so happy with Obama right now.

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:59 pm

I use Twitter on the Web (don't have a smartphone anyway). It's only there when I go look at it and doesn't interrupt my work. But I do like it for breaking news, and for the earliest possible notification that Nate Silver has updated.

Post by **Dave_LF** » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:06 pm

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:And then there are his new ads about Chrysler and GM shipping jobs to China. Even within the metrics of this campaign they take credibility to a new level.

The polls just released at noon ET show Ohio slipping father away from him at a time when he desperately needs it to be moving in the other direction, so those ads may not have been the best call. But he had to do something.