The 2008 Presidential Campaign: Part Three

[Holbytla]

OK it was $150 million and yes it is amazing, especially considering that they say the average donation is $100.

I think that the Obama campaign has to be basing decisions on recent polls and their belief they can win previously republican states.

[Primula Baggins]

I think Lord_M has the right of it in both paragraphs. Joe Biden was in Tacoma, Washington, today, in a state that is completely in Obama's column but where there is a very tight governor's race. They're definitely shoring up some senate races, too.

And, given how smart this campaign has been right along—well, since after the New Hampshire primary, anyway—I'm sure they're not doing anything that might endanger their position in the swing states.

By broadening the battlefield, they're increasing the effect of their funding advantage. The McCain campaign is the one that has to choose where to fight, and Obama's campaign is forcing them to choose between attacking in swing states and defending the traditional red states without which McCain will find it difficult or impossible to reach 270 electoral votes.

[Holbytla]

I would campaign heavily in Missouri. That would be a big win for the dems.

And McCain should campaign heavily in Virginia.

[Primula Baggins]

Both are happening, Holby. Obama had huge rallies yesterday in St. Louis (100,000 people) and Kansas City (75,000). McCain recently had a rally in northern Virginia.

Those attendance numbers are apparently from local authorities, by the way. Campaigns like to inflate them, so I always look for the source.

[Inanna]

fivethirtyeight took West Virginia off the swing state list. Am surprised it was even there. As I remember, Obama didn't even bother campaigning there in the primaries.

There was a mention on CNN that Obama will be spending time in states to help democrats running for Congress and Senate. Am not sure how smart an idea is to not physically campaign in the swing states. If he gets the swing states, hes through, right?

[vison]

Through as in "in" or through as in "beat"?

[Primula Baggins]

The Obama campaign announced today that they're going to be spending $5 million in West Virginia. I don't think they're giving up WV. It's hard to know where the poll numbers actually are there, but it's almost certainly close.

My brother sent me this link to an article at Times Online that's about the Ohio town in Appalachia where's working for Obama right now (it was filed the day before he got there). Things seem to be changing in ways that are strange and wonderful and painful all at the same time. I think no one is going to be able to predict exactly what happens in this election.

[sauronsfinger]

Outside of the Kerry won states - were I Obama , my priorities would be
1- Florida
2- Ohio
3- Virginia
4- North Carolina
5 Missouri

he already has good leads in Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.

It is hard to imagine the Dems taking West Virginia. I would not spend another $5 Million there but take it to some other of those top four. Even Nevada would be better than WV.

You also cannot neglect the states which you are ahed in but were close four years ago like Wisconsin.

I have been doing a lot of door to door canvassing here in Michigan and there are days where it is very scary. Yes, McCain has split from this state but you would not know it but he reaction you often get. I expect that here in Michigan it will be much closer than anyone thinks.

The tool I would use more than any other would be a 60 second commercial using the endorsement of Colin Powell. There are large numbers of military - active and retired - in Florida, Virginia and North Carolina and I would spend lots of money on TV and radio spots reminding them of the service of Powell to his country, his Republican party affiliation, and his endorsement and praise for Senator Obama.

[Dave_LF]

There could be other reasons, as Tosh suggested. There are, for example, close Senate elections in Mississippi and Georgia, a strong effort by Obama in those states could deliver up those seats even if he doesn't win the states themselves.

Alternatively, internal polling and exit polls from early voting could suggest that he's in a strong enough position to go on the offence in more traditional red states.

I think he's also trying very hard to position himself as a centrist and ensure that as few people and states as possible are disgruntled should he win.

[Cerin]

Outside of the Kerry won states - were I Obama , my priorities would be
1- Florida
2- Ohio
3- Virginia
4- North Carolina
5 Missouri

he already has good leads in Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.

I don't think Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa should be regarded as in the bag. I'm nervous about Michigan, too. I'd take North Carolina off of that list.

[sauronsfinger]

Cerin - what strategy would you employ over the last two weeks?

And a question to anyone who lives outside the Eastern time zone..... if the networks made it pretty clear that a certain candidate is going to win the election and
a)you have not voted, and
b) your states polls are still open

would that impact your decision to vote or not to vote?

[Dave_LF]

What makes you worry about Michigan, Cerin?

Edit: Here's some interesting data from 2004:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presi ... n_Michigan

Bush won nearly every county in Michigan except Wayne (Detroit), which went to Kerry by a huge margin and was enough to let him carry the state.

Edit again: "nearly every" is going to far. But with 1 or 2 exceptions, Detroit is the only place he won big.

[Primula Baggins]

And a question to anyone who lives outside the Eastern time zone..... if the networks made it pretty clear that a certain candidate is going to win the election and
a)you have not voted, and
b) your states polls are still open

would that impact your decision to vote or not to vote?

Never. For one thing, there's a lot more to vote on than the presidential race. And for another, even when I've known my vote was for an already-declared loser, I wanted it to be counted for him.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Regarding Powell, Obama has stated that he will have a role in his administration (if he wins), even if it is just as an advisor. He also said that Powell has an open invitation to show up at any campaign stop.

Regarding his campaign strategy, it appears that it is not the swing states he is taking resources away from, but rather from the Kerry states that he has already sufficiently solidified.

He and his aides appear so confident of his prospects that apart from a brief stop in Madison, Wis., next Thursday, Obama currently has no plans during the next 10 days to return to Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire or any other state that voted for John Kerry in 2004.

Instead, he intends to spend two days this week in Florida, where early voting begins on Monday, and travel to Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and possibly Nevada and Indiana. Those states hold 97 electoral votes combined, and Bush won all in 2004.

Obama also may stop in West Virginia, where his campaign recently bought statewide television advertising in a late attempt to put the state's five electoral votes into serious contention.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/200810 ... 8N1O0.html

[ToshoftheWuffingas]

Powell's endorsement of Obama seemed in retrospect to be very well timed at this stage of the campaign, not least because it was trailed beforehand and was picked over again the following day. A clever way to dominate the news apart from the other positive benefits. Whatever happens afterwards this must go down as the most intelligent campaign I have ever seen.

[Teremia]

OK, here's a slight change of topic.

Today in the Times there was a long examination of the medical histories of the four major candidates:

1. McCain's melanomas (troubling: recurrence always possible)
2. Biden's aneurysms (troubling: twenty years ago so recurrence is unlikely, but still possible)
3. Obama's smoking (now mostly Nicorette gum) -- he has issued a one-page doctor's letter (i.e. ALMOST no information) and some test results that are normal.
4. Palin's blank slate -- no information given out at all.

Here's one odd concern I had (which just goes to show how paranoid an election season can make a person):

Why hasn't Obama released more medical records? Seems like it would be a natural move for him to make, to put pressure on McCain's pretty serious medical albatross. Is it just that he wants to take the moral high ground and NOT make too much of the melanoma stuff? Or what?

If I were writing this as fiction, I'd have Obama hiding some bad medical condition that nobody even suspects because McCain's scars are just so much more obvious.

[Padme]

Teremia,

I would like to know everyone's health condition. I honestly have not too much concern about McCain's melanomas as my own grandmother has had more than one skin cancer taken off her face without the cancer spreading anywhere, as has my uncle. I think if they are like any other cancer if caught early...

On another topic McCain has $47 million for October. I did not know he opted for the public election funding system. I have to wonder if this will be the death of that system after seeing the large amount of funds Obama has not using the system, as it seems to have hobbled McCain somewhat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081020/ap_ ... aign_money

[River]

Cerin - what strategy would you employ over the last two weeks?

And a question to anyone who lives outside the Eastern time zone..... if the networks made it pretty clear that a certain candidate is going to win the election and
a)you have not voted, and
b) your states polls are still open

would that impact your decision to vote or not to vote?

I'd still go in, but I vote first thing in the morning. I find it easier.

[sauronsfinger]

The McCain campaign is alleging that some of that $150 million raised by the Obama campaign during the month of September may have come in illegal donations from foreign sources.

This from our friends at dailykos.com

On a day on which McCain campaign manager Rick Davis hinted that Obama was taking foreign money, the Russian Mission to the United Nations has released a standard-issue fundraising letter gone a bit astray: It was addressed to the Russian envoy to the U.N., Vitaly Churkin, at the mission's address, but without his title. [...]

"We have received a letter from Senator John McCain with a request for a financial donation to his presidential election campaign. In this respect we have to reiterate that neither Russia's permanent mission to the UN nor the Russian government or its officials finance political activities in foreign countries," the statement said.

You can get more and the whole discussion that goes with it by going to dailykos.com. But the essence is in the short excerpt above.

Reminds me of what my dad used to tell me when I pointed the finger of blame at somebody else: "you have three more fingers pointing right back at yourself".

[Cerin]

Cerin - what strategy would you employ over the last two weeks?

Oh, don't mind me. I don't know enough about the electoral map to make any sound decisions. I'm just nervous, and I don't want the Obama campaign to take anything for granted. But as Voronwë pointed out, they've made good decisions thus far, so we can probably count on them not to do anything stupid here at the end. I just wonder if the prospect of a really big victory -- that is, really changing that electoral map -- might be beckoning them a little too strongly, as opposed to concentrating on just securing that victory by a smaller margin.

What makes you worry about Michigan, Cerin?

I don't recall what, if anything, I might have heard about Michigan that made me think it was iffy. I guess I'm just nervous in general, that the polls aren't going to pan out in the end.

He and his aides appear so confident of his prospects that apart from a brief stop in Madison, Wis., next Thursday, Obama currently has no plans during the next 10 days to return to Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire or any other state that voted for John Kerry in 2004.

Instead, he intends to spend two days this week in Florida, where early voting begins on Monday, and travel to Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico and possibly Nevada and Indiana. Those states hold 97 electoral votes combined, and Bush won all in 2004.

Are Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Hampshire really safe? (I think I've been using the term 'swing state' indiscriminately.)

I don't take exception to any of the states listed there that they're planning to visit. I guess he can't go everywhere.