Global Warming

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Which is most correct?

The earth is not, on the whole, warming
1
3%
The earth is warming, but the causes are natural
5
14%
The earth is warming due to human activity
29
83%
 
Total votes: 35

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solicitr
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Post by solicitr »

Does the APS publish other non-peer-reviewed papers? If they do, did they actually tell him his would be?
Sometimes, and yes.

Monckton's paper was sent to an external reviewer, not an editor, and working with his recommendations M. made multiple revisions, expanding his original submission by 3000 words. At all times M believed, and was led to believe, that this was a peer-review process.

I am very suspicious of a 'consensus' which has to be maintained - or the illusion of which has to be maintained- by the suppression of dissent. In an age where the head of a government science agency can call for a "Nuremburg-style tribunal" to try and punish 'deniers,' where the American Meteorological Sociey has moved to expel any TV weatherman who doesn't toe the party line, where scientist after scientist has been denied tenure, shut out of scientific conferences and rejected by academic journals because no matter how scrupulous their research, their conclusions disagreed with the prevailing orthodoxy, and many others of their colleagues are too afraid for their jobs even to speak out, I see disturbing trends undermining academic freedom (and by extension scientific progress), not to mention possibly catastrophic economic consequences resulting from ill-considered measures undertaken on the basis of a forged 'consensus.'


What is claimed as 'consensus' I very much suspect is what is known as an 'information cascade.' Let me cite Schopenhauer, perhaps the first to perceive this phenomenon:
When we come to look into the matter, so-called universal opinion is the opinion of two or three persons; and we should be persuaded of this if we could see the way in which it really arises.

We should find that it is two or three persons who, in the first instance, accepted it, or advanced and maintained it; and of whom people were so good as to believe that they had thoroughly tested it. Then a few other persons, persuaded beforehand that the first were men of the requisite capacity, also accepted the opinion. These, again, were trusted by many others, whose laziness suggested to them that it was better to believe at once, than to go through the troublesome task of testing the matter for themselves. Thus the number of these lazy and credulous adherents grew from day to day; for the opinion had no sooner obtained a fair measure of support than its further supporters attributed this to the fact that the opinion could only have obtained it by the cogency of its arguments. The remainder were then compelled to grant what was universally granted, so as not to pass for unruly persons who resisted opinions which every one accepted, or pert fellows who thought themselves cleverer than any one else.

When opinion reaches this stage, adhesion becomes a duty....

--The Art of Controversy

But the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Solar variation theory predicts that temperatures will continue to fall for at least another decade; carbon theory predicts the opposite. Although I could be proven wrong by events, my prediction is that eventually data which even James Hanson can't successfully distort will send this current 'consensus' crumbling onto its sandy foundations.
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yovargas
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Post by yovargas »

If this incident is supposed to be evidence of "suppression of dissent", you're not making a very compelling case.
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Post by solicitr »

Call it rather the 'slighting dismissal of dissent.'
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Post by solicitr »

Full article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 83,00.html

I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.

FullCAM models carbon flows in plants, mulch, debris, soils and agricultural products, using inputs such as climate data, plant physiology and satellite data. I've been following the global warming debate closely for years.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
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Post by ToshoftheWuffingas »

That is an excellent quote from Keynes isn't it? Any politician would do well to rely on it.
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Post by sauronsfinger »

My guess would be a politicians answer to that question would be

"I find the facts which match my opinion, thank you."

O fcourse, that is pretty much what we all do, myself included.
To get the facts first is impossible. There are no facts unless one has a criterion of relevance. Events by themselves are not facts. People inevitably start out with an opinion; to ask them to search for the facts first is even undesirable. They will simply do what everyone is far too prone to do anyhow; look for the facts that fit the conclusion they have already reached. And no one has ever failed to find the facts he is looking for.
Peter Drucker
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers
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Post by ToshoftheWuffingas »

Indeed but it is still a classic snappy comeback.
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Post by Alatar »

Might be of interest here. Our new car tax system is no longer based on size of engine, but rather on carbon emissions.
Frequently Asked Questions on the new CO2 based motor tax system
How is the method of calculating Motor Tax changing?
For all new cars registered from 1 July 2008, motor tax charges will be determined on
the basis of the CO2 emissions level, based on seven CO2 bands. Charges will range from
€100 a year for the greenest cars to €2,000 for cars with the highest emissions rating.
Rates: Motor tax rates will be graduated as one moves up the CO2 bands, as follows:
Band CO2 emissions – grams per km
Annual Motor Tax Rate
Band A not exceeding 120 grams per
kilometre,
€100
Band B exceeding 120 grams per
kilometre but not exceeding 140
grams per kilometre,
€150
Band C exceeding 140 grams per
kilometre but not exceeding 155
grams per kilometre,
€ 290
Band D exceeding 155 grams per
kilometre but not exceeding 170
grams per kilometre
€ 430
Band E exceeding 170 grams per
kilometre but not exceeding 190
grams per kilometre
€ 600
Band F exceeding 190 grams per
kilometre but not exceeding 225
grams per kilometre
€1,000
Band G exceeding 225 grams per
kilometre
€2,000
Which vehicles does the new system apply to?
A new car, which is, registered by the Revenue Commissioners for vehicle registration
tax on or after 1 July, 2008 as a category A vehicle i.e. passenger cars.
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Post by Jnyusa »

Thanks for that information, Alatar!

You know, I think that kind of switch is a great idea, because when you tax the size of the car (correlate to the size of the engine) there is an underlying assumption that you are taxing the ability of the person to buy a larger car. There is ... political attitude .... to that kind of tax, if you know what I mean.

But when you tax the emissions of the car, you are taxing based on a market cost that adheres to one vehicle and not another, and that is neutral with regard to one's political opinion about wealthier individuals and their greater ability to pay.

I much prefer taxes (and prices) based on the real cost of things.
A fool's paradise is a wise man's hell.
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Post by solicitr »

And far more sensible than that of US and most of its states, which is a function of the *price* of the car. So a $100k Tesla all-electric is taxed throgh the roof.
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Post by Frelga »

And far more sensible than that of US and most of its states, which is a function of the *price* of the car. So a $100k Tesla all-electric is taxed throgh the roof.
And I don't believe the tax goes down as the car loses its value with age (could be wrong here).

In an ideal world, the tax would take into account the person's practical need for a particular car and tax any "extra". :spin:
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Post by solicitr »

This isn't going to persuade anyone here, but it is rather revealing:

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fusea ... id=8917946

(Yes, I love Penn & Teller)

Pay particular attention to

1) the co-founder of Greenpeace, and
2) the petition to ban dihydrogen monoxide.
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Post by Jnyusa »

sol wrote:2) the petition to ban dihydrogen monoxide.
I caught that episode on youtube a few weeks ago. That was hilarious.
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Post by solicitr »

http://bp0.blogger.com/_rqH4fUbko2U/SIy ... me%2B2.JPG

Is it just me, or is this rather disturbingly Red Guard-ish?
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Post by sauronsfinger »

Well the Red Gaurd must be very quick. I clicked on the link and it said
ERROR
Not Found
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers
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Post by solicitr »

Wow- if you thought Penn & Teller's piece from five years ago was scathing, check out their latest:

http://beta.vreel.net/watch_20885.html
(DivX plugin required)

How do carbon credits differ from medieval indulgences??? Any Lutherans?
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solicitr
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Post by solicitr »

Just one example of the blatant academic fraud used to shore up MMGW alarmism:

Link
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Post by halplm »

Scientific Journals would never do something like that! That would undermine the entire scientific method!

:roll:
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For the DESPAIRING may you find HOPE
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Post by solicitr »

A wonderful overview of the corruption underlying the IPCC:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main ... do3105.xml
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Post by halplm »

If there's anything that's going to kill support for "going green" in the US, it's statements like these:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... icalliving

People want to do it voluntarily, that's their business, but you better believe people won't stand for any kind of food rationing regulations...
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