UK Local Elections May 2021

[Beorhtnoth]

That said, I should note that I am mad at the Democrats, but incandescent with rage at the Republicans and neo-Nazis (but I repeat myself).

That's my platform as well.

Fascinating, but I'm not sure how much your personal platform influences UK elections...

[Dave_LF]

Fair enough

[N.E. Brigand]

Among developed countries, I believe the U.K. trails only Israel in the percentage of the population vaccinated for Covid. Surely that helped the incumbent party even more than the general "rally round the flag" effect seen in most countries during the crisis.

But the UK also has one of the highest mortality rates.

The British media are masters of propaganda. There is no need to lie when one narrative can be promoted simply by ignoring the alternatives.

Yes, about the same as the death rate in the U.S., and despite that, Donald Trump would have been reelected in November had he just appeared to be acting a little more competently.

[Beorhtnoth]

I raise the UK mortality rate as a challenge to a certain narrative that Johnson only did well because of Covid. As far as I can see, this is a theory peddled by those who have constructed the "fact" Labour's suffering is due to Corbyn's "looney left" leadership. A year on from Starmer's election as leader, Labour in Hartlepool see their share of the vote collapse from >40% to <30%.

This cannot be blamed on Corbyn, no matter how much the Labour right, and media, try.

Corbyn's Labour was the largest party by members in Europe. Now? It is bankrupt as those fee paying members leave in droves. Like the DNC, Labour elites have always paid lip service to members, but unlike the DNC, Labour needs those members.

The chicks have flown that nest.

[N.E. Brigand]

I raise the UK mortality rate as a challenge to a certain narrative that Johnson only did well because of Covid. As far as I can see, this is a theory peddled by those who have constructed the "fact" Labour's suffering is due to Corbyn's "looney left" leadership. A year on from Starmer's election as leader, Labour in Hartlepool see their share of the vote collapse from >40% to <30%.

All world leaders did well because of Covid because of the rally-round-the-flag effect. And mismanagement didn't make that much of a diffrence. (I was noting this more than a year ago; my views have nothing to do with Corbyn.) In that regard, Johnson is just one more. Also, he was hospitalized, which won him some sympathy. And then he bolstered his position when the UK rolled out vaccines effectively.

Also while I think Brexit was probably a bad idea (and certainly one that was partly driven by lies), he brought it to a conclusion after his predecessor floundered.

[Beorhtnoth]

All world leaders did well because of Covid because of the rally-round-the-flag effect

Trump lost. The Socialists lost Madrid. The Greens look on target to become the leading party in Germany.

What is your justification to claim; "All world leaders did well because of Covid because of the rally-round-the-flag effect"?

[N.E. Brigand]

All world leaders did well because of Covid because of the rally-round-the-flag effect

Trump lost. The Socialists lost Madrid. The Greens look on target to become the leading party in Germany.

What is your justification to claim: "All world leaders did well because of Covid because of the rally-round-the-flag effect"?

Lots of polls showed pretty much every world leader's popularity rising during the pandemic. Perhaps that is subsiding in nations where the pandemic drags on and vaccination is slow. (Again, I'm no fan of Boris Johnson, but he had the sense or the luck to realize the importance of getting people their shots.) Angela Merkel is more popular now than she was in January 2020. Even now, Narendra Modi has net +30 rating among Indians. (Some more examples here.) And it's pretty widely agreed by U.S. political observers that if Donald Trump had just *appeared* marginally more competent, he would have won the electoral vote. (He probably still would have lost the popular vote. Joe Biden's victory came down to a couple hundred thousand votes in five key states, which is about one-tenth of one percent of the total -- although that was bigger than the margin in 2016.) Trump's popularity ratings went up to his best numbers of his entire presidency in March-April last year. House Democrats put their party's political fortunes in serious danger by passing a large relief bill that would help Americans weather the economic storm; it's unlikely House Republicans would have done the same if Hillary Clinton would have been president. All Trump had to do was say a few encouraging words and let the government do its best. But he was so terrified of going to jail that he convinced himself Democrats were exaggerating the dangers of the pandemic to tank the economy and ruin his chances. So he did and said a lot of really foolish things.

[Beorhtnoth]

Modi just lost West Bengal...

[N.E. Brigand]

Modi just lost West Bengal...

And as you presumably saw when you checked that link I shared, Modi's popularity has in fact dropped in the past six weeks, because the pandemic is raging there at a level that country had not experienced. But he was ridiculously popular to start. Maybe six weeks from now he'll only be +15. Maybe twelve weeks from now he'll only be +0. (That's a number Donald Trump never reached even when he peaked in April 2020: had he only been as popular as he was unpopular, he would have won by a large margin thanks to the nature of the U.S. electoral college.) So I think my point stands. The pandemic initially helped leaders' popularity, and it took about a year for the pandemic to start to hurt their popularity.

[Beorhtnoth]

Modi just lost West Bengal...

And as you presumably saw when you checked that link I shared, Modi's popularity has in fact dropped in the past six weeks, because the pandemic is raging there at a level that country had not experienced. But he was ridiculously popular to start. Maybe six weeks from now he'll only be +15. Maybe twelve weeks from now he'll only be +0. (That's a number Donald Trump never reached even when he peaked in April 2020: had he only been as popular as he was unpopular, he would have won by a large margin thanks to the nature of the U.S. electoral college.) So I think my point stands. The pandemic initially helped leaders' popularity, and it took about a year for the pandemic to start to hurt their popularity.

The first UK lockdown began in March, 2019. Johnson won a landslide local election victory in May, 2020 (14 months later).

How does that fit with your "one year" analysis?

[N.E. Brigand]

Modi just lost West Bengal...

And as you presumably saw when you checked that link I shared, Modi's popularity has in fact dropped in the past six weeks, because the pandemic is raging there at a level that country had not experienced. But he was ridiculously popular to start. Maybe six weeks from now he'll only be +15. Maybe twelve weeks from now he'll only be +0. (That's a number Donald Trump never reached even when he peaked in April 2020: had he only been as popular as he was unpopular, he would have won by a large margin thanks to the nature of the U.S. electoral college.) So I think my point stands. The pandemic initially helped leaders' popularity, and it took about a year for the pandemic to start to hurt their popularity.

The first UK lockdown began in March, 2019. Johnson won a landslide local election victory in May, 2020 (14 months later).

How does that fit with your "one year" analysis?

We've already gone over that: I propose that (1) Johnson like most world leaders saw his popularity rise due to the pandemic; (2) those world leaders who had the least success dealing with the pandemic saw their popularity start to fall after about a year; and (3) Johnson overaw a very successful vaccine distribution, which (along with his more or less successful handling of Brexit) staved off that fall in popularity.

[Beorhtnoth]

OK
1) Is this statistically correct, and what is the methodology for determining popularity? Have incumbants performed better in elections than expected?
2) Johnson had amongst the worst outcomes if mortality is a metric.
3) The Conservatives made spectacular gains. This was unlike, for example, the German CDU, for whom Merkel remains popular whilst her party struggles.
To reiterate; Keir Starmer not being Corbyn was supposed to revitalise Labour. The opposite has happened. Labour is moribund. Why?

[N.E. Brigand]

This prescription for Labour in the New Statesman may be of interest:

Reclaiming Meritocracy: Why an Idea Dismissed as an Excuse for Elitism Offers Labour's Only Path to Victory