2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[N.E. Brigand]

Josh Mandel, the former Ohio state treasurer vying to be the Republican nominee to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, struggles with philology:

"You can’t spell 'panDEMic' without 'DEM.' Is this a coincidence?"

It is in fact not a coincidence, but not in the way he means.

[Jude]

Tell him that you can't spell "zygophyte" without "gop". It's equally useful information.

[Frelga]

His name means "almond." Is it a sign that he is nuts and should not be in a position of authority?

[N.E. Brigand]

At a rally in Georgia last night, former president Donald Trump told a crowd of about 9,000 Georgians that they might be better off with Stacey Abrams, a Democrat, as their governor than with their current Republican governor Brian Kemp.

(He was doing this to encourage the crowd to support his choices to be the Republican nominees for Georgia offices next year, including his preferred candidate for Senate, former football player Herschel Walker.)

Edited to correctly note the office Walker is running for.

[RoseMorninStar]

Why is an ex-president still doing rallies?

[Frelga]

Ostensibly, in preparation for his 2024 run.

[RoseMorninStar]

I'd say more like, feeds the ego, keeps anger of 'the big lie' high, and raises money. But yeah, ostensibly..

[N.E. Brigand]

Some surprising good news (from my perspective): a new NPR poll finds Democrats have an 8% advantage over Republicans (46%-38%) in the generic Congressional ballot.

Mind you, due to gerrymandering, they'll need that and more in order to remain in charge of Congress.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Some more surprising good news for the self-imploding Democrats.

As redistricting gets under way, Democrats' prospects looking brighter

[N.E. Brigand]

Donald Trump says that unless the "Presidential Election Fraud of 2020" is "solve[d]" (by which I think he means that his loss must be somehow overturned), "Republicans will not be voting in '22 or '24."

Will he stick with that message? Or will he succumb to pressure from other Republicans and back down?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

As wonderful as it might be to imagine droves of Republicans boycotting the 2022 and 2024 elections there is zero chance of that happening.

But even a small number in the right places could make a big difference.

[Dave_LF]

zing

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[N.E. Brigand]

I saw Class Action in May 1991 a theater in Hagerstown, Maryland, where we were visiting my cousins.

(TL;DR: Republicans seem to have conducted a "simple actuarial analysis" and decided that it's worth killing some 250,000 of their voters if extending the pandemic will depress Joe Biden's approval rating.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia who looks likely to defeat his Democratic opponent, Terry McAuliffe, in tomorrow's election (despite Virginia having voted for Joe Biden by a 10 point margin), has often downplayed (but not outright denied) his support for Donald Trump. It's generally thought that this distancing, plus Joe Biden's current poor showing in the polls, have been key points making Youngkin's victory likely.

So it's interesting that Donald Trump today issued a statement affirming his support for Youngkin and claiming that "Fake News and perverts are working overtime ... to try and convince people that we [i.e., he and Youngkin] do not like each other."

Also today, Trump said this in a radio interview:

"Israel literally owned Congress, you understand that, ten years ago, fifteen years ago, and it was so powerful, and today it's almost the opposite: you have, between AOC and Omar, these people that hate Israel, they hate Israel with a passion, they're controlling Congress, and Israel is not a force in Congress anymore. I mean, it's just amazing. I've never seen such a change. And we're not talking about over a very long period of time, but I think you know exactly what I'm saying. They had such power. Israel had such power, and rightfully, over Congress, and now it doesn't. It's incredible, actually."

Even if you ignore the weird mix of antisemitism and philosemitism (basically: "Jews secretly rule the world, and that's a good thing"), you still have the former president of the United States here claiming that a foreign nation ought to control the U.S. Congress.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think it is an exaggeration to say that Youngkin looks likely to defeat McAuliffe. Polls have certainly been tending in his direction, but the race really is too close at this point to call.

[River]

Also today, Trump said this in a radio interview:

"Israel literally owned Congress, you understand that, ten years ago, fifteen years ago, and it was so powerful, and today it's almost the opposite: you have, between AOC and Omar, these people that hate Israel, they hate Israel with a passion, they're controlling Congress, and Israel is not a force in Congress anymore. I mean, it's just amazing. I've never seen such a change. And we're not talking about over a very long period of time, but I think you know exactly what I'm saying. They had such power. Israel had such power, and rightfully, over Congress, and now it doesn't. It's incredible, actually."

Even if you ignore the weird mix of antisemitism and philosemitism (basically: "Jews secretly rule the world, and that's a good thing"), you still have the former president of the United States here claiming that a foreign nation ought to control the U.S. Congress.

If Trump's really "just saying what everyone's thinking" then what everyone's thing doesn't make a lick of sense.

[Frelga]

That tracks, actually.

[N.E. Brigand]

I think it is an exaggeration to say that Youngkin looks likely to defeat McAuliffe. Polls have certainly been tending in his direction, but the race really is too close at this point to call.

That's fair. Unfortunately, the results so far this evening are tracking with the recent polls.

[N.E. Brigand]

I don't think the networks have called the race yet, but a number of prominent elections analysts (like Dave Wasserman) have said that Republican Glenn Youngkin has won in Virginia, flipping that state's governorship. It was last held by a Republican in 2014.

I suspect Josh Barro of Business Insider, who often irritates me with his centrist takes, may be right in his assessment tonight that McAuliffe did about the best he did under current conditions:

"To do better next year, Dems need better fundamentals on COVID and the economy, and they need to appear more engaged on fixing those fundamentals. Right now, the Biden Admin's emphasis is everywhere else -- climate, Dem wish-list items in the two big spending bills."

I noted in the other thread that the Dow reached its highest level ever today. But as was also true in 2016, what's good for corporations isn't necessarily good for the public. And the public, unfortunately, responds by voting out whoever is in power, even if the candidates they vote in are much more friendly toward corporations than toward people.

(Mind you, global warming is very important! But a lot of people just don't care if their children or grandchildren will suffer horribly.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump tonight credits his supporters for pushing Youngkin to victory: "Without you, he would not have been close to winning."