2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Túrin Turambar]

I saw some College-aged people on Twitter generally surprised that a (likely) president could give a speech which wasn't a rant. It was completely new to them.

I agree it wasn't a great speech, not so much because of Biden's stutter but because it hit pretty much every expected cliche, but it was almost certainly what was needed in the circumstances. His simple expression of empathy for those who have lost loved ones was striking.

[N.E. Brigand]

As Jake Tapper notes, eight years ago yesterday, on Nov. 6, 2012, Donald Trump tweeted this:

"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy."

And Trump was right! The U.S. should do away with the Electoral College. And also the Senate (if Democrats lose both Georgia run-off elections, their 48 senators will still represent 41 million more people than the Republicans' 52 senators).

But the reason he tweeted that is he thought that Barack Obama had lost the popular vote against Mitt Romney while winning reelection via the E.C. In fact, there were still millions of ballots to be counted. Sound familiar?

[Túrin Turambar]

After today's developments, I actually think the first step is to establish an independent national electoral commission, similar to the ones every other advanced democracy (e.g. Elections Canada, Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Commission of the UK, etc). After this election, it would presumably have bipartisan support. Once it was up and running and proved itself effective, say, in the 2021 off-year elections and 2022 midterms, then there could be a push to enshrine it in the Constitution and give it the power to declare the president based on the nationwide popular vote. It'd be a challenging constitutional amendment to pass, but an interim measure like choosing the presidency based on Congressional districts or even making the entire country work like Maine and Nebraska would have more of a chance. It could pick up the job of re-districting, too, which is normally done by electoral commissions.

In other news, the Prime Minister of Fiji has congratulated Joe Biden on his victory - the first national leader to do so as far as I know.

ETA: Another advantage of national electoral commissions is consistency. I have voted for the Australian House of Representatives in two states (and at the Australian embassy in San Francisco), and in each case the ballot paper followed exactly the same format, the registration and ID process at the polling place is identical, and the ballots are counted in the same order in every electorate (pre-polls, mail votes, in-person votes, etc).

ETA: I just realised upthread that I accidentally referred to 'AZ' as 'NZ'. If New Zealand was contested in this election, it would be worth nine electoral votes (similar population to Alabama) and would be pretty safe for Biden.

[Túrin Turambar]

For those in the graveyard shift (American time) there seems to have been something of a lively competition to create the best hip-hop remix of Paula White's deranged sermon in support of the President. I like this one (some language warning):



Soon I'll be off to bed for the fourth time since counting the vote started. The last three I've been expecting the race to be called when I woke up, but this time I actually don't think the networks will risk it yet. The earliest I expect a call is tomorrow afternoon/evening U.S. time. But we'll see, things might develop quickly from the next ballot drop in NV and AZ.

[Sunsilver]

His simple expression of empathy for those who have lost loved ones was striking.

Gee, imagine that!

[Dave_LF]

(And meanwhile, the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and four other Trump aides have tested positive for coronavirus, and they've known for a couple days, but they were keeping it secret. On Oct. 27 Pres. Trump tweeted the following: "All the fake news media wants to talk about is Covid, Covid, Covid. On November 4th, you won't be hearing much about it anymore." Except he did it in all caps. I heard that same message from other conservatives as far back as July. But besides Meadows and four others testing positive, Nov. 4th was the first time the daily number of cases nationwide surpassed 100,000, only for the next day to have 120,000 and the day after that to have 128,000. All of it reported in the press. And Joe Biden tonight said if we do nothing, we'll reach 200,000 cases per day.)

Meadows was the one who announced "we're not going to control the virus" a week or two ago. Guess a Trump official told the truth for once.

And Meadows was at Trump's indoor election party maskless. We could be about to have a swath of his inner circle go out sick with COVID at the same time. Again.

[elengil]

After today's developments, I actually think the first step is to establish an independent national electoral commission, similar to the ones every other advanced democracy (e.g. Elections Canada, Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Commission of the UK, etc). After this election, it would presumably have bipartisan support.

That's the tricky thing about 'bi-partisan' support. You can have broad bi-partisan appeal among the populace, but that never seems to translate into bi-partisan support within the government. So much for 'representation'.

[River]

^^ And that's why things like drug laws end up getting changed by referendum in states that allow such things.

[River]

Pennsylvania has been called. Joseph R. Biden is now the projected winner of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Some music: The Star Spangled Banner

[Dave_LF]

Big step, but it ain't over til he's gone.

[N.E. Brigand]

Five outlets called the election within two minutes of each other at about 11:25 a.m. EST, in this order: CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, AP.

Fox called Pennsylvania and thus the election about 15 minutes after the other networks did, and they also called Nevada.

It's no longer necessary for the outcome, but Arizona, which Fox called late Tuesday and the AP called Wedneday, keeps tightening, and Biden's lead is down to 20,573. However, most prognosticators say that Trump's increases there are falling just shy of what he'd need to catch up. So it's looking very much like Biden 306, Trump 232, which as other have noted, is the same margin Trump had over Clinton (setting aside faithless electors).

Decision Desk HQ, which has not called Arizona, called Pennsylvania and the election yesterday morning, about 26 hours before the networks did so today.

[Lalaith]

I know, I know, Dave. I won't quite believe it till I see the back of the U-Haul, but still, for this moment,...

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk

[Inanna]

Breathe!

[River]

Lali, Trump's an entrepreneur. He won't rent a U-Haul. He'll start his own moving company and have a great big black truck with TRUMP RELOCATION SERVICES printed on the sides in big gold letters.

[elengil]

Even though it looks like it'll end up 49/51 - if the Senate split 50/50, would Democrats be given the majority position since the VP would be the tie-breaker? Or how does a 50/50 senate split work?

[Dave_LF]

Yes, if everyone votes along party lines.

[N.E. Brigand]

Even though it looks like it'll end up 49/51 - if the Senate split 50/50, would Democrats be given the majority position since the VP would be the tie-breaker? Or how does a 50/50 senate split work?

I think 52-48 Republican lead is the likely outcome, with Democrats losing both Senate run-offs in Georgia in January. But if the Senate does get to 50-50, then yes, Vice President Harris breaks all ties, so Democrats would have the majority.

Although I guess for the first 17 days of the new Senate, Pence would still be V.P. and thus the tie-breaker.

[elengil]

Yes, if everyone votes along party lines.

Well how they vote isn't necessarily the same as who is 'declared' the majority party - since that has a lot of bearing on who is in charge of committees and such.

I think 52-48 Republican lead is the likely outcome, with Democrats losing both Senate run-offs in Georgia in January. But if the Senate does get to 50-50, then yes, Vice President Harris breaks all ties, so Democrats would have the majority.

Ah

[Frelga]

Big step, but it ain't over til he's gone.

Yes, but this is the step we need to keep going.

[Dave_LF]

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