2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I saw some College-aged people on Twitter generally surprised that a (likely) president could give a speech which wasn't a rant. It was completely new to them.
I agree it wasn't a great speech, not so much because of Biden's stutter but because it hit pretty much every expected cliche, but it was almost certainly what was needed in the circumstances. His simple expression of empathy for those who have lost loved ones was striking.
I agree it wasn't a great speech, not so much because of Biden's stutter but because it hit pretty much every expected cliche, but it was almost certainly what was needed in the circumstances. His simple expression of empathy for those who have lost loved ones was striking.
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
As Jake Tapper notes, eight years ago yesterday, on Nov. 6, 2012, Donald Trump tweeted this:
"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy."
And Trump was right! The U.S. should do away with the Electoral College. And also the Senate (if Democrats lose both Georgia run-off elections, their 48 senators will still represent 41 million more people than the Republicans' 52 senators).
But the reason he tweeted that is he thought that Barack Obama had lost the popular vote against Mitt Romney while winning reelection via the E.C. In fact, there were still millions of ballots to be counted. Sound familiar?
"The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy."
And Trump was right! The U.S. should do away with the Electoral College. And also the Senate (if Democrats lose both Georgia run-off elections, their 48 senators will still represent 41 million more people than the Republicans' 52 senators).
But the reason he tweeted that is he thought that Barack Obama had lost the popular vote against Mitt Romney while winning reelection via the E.C. In fact, there were still millions of ballots to be counted. Sound familiar?
- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
After today's developments, I actually think the first step is to establish an independent national electoral commission, similar to the ones every other advanced democracy (e.g. Elections Canada, Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Commission of the UK, etc). After this election, it would presumably have bipartisan support. Once it was up and running and proved itself effective, say, in the 2021 off-year elections and 2022 midterms, then there could be a push to enshrine it in the Constitution and give it the power to declare the president based on the nationwide popular vote. It'd be a challenging constitutional amendment to pass, but an interim measure like choosing the presidency based on Congressional districts or even making the entire country work like Maine and Nebraska would have more of a chance. It could pick up the job of re-districting, too, which is normally done by electoral commissions.
In other news, the Prime Minister of Fiji has congratulated Joe Biden on his victory - the first national leader to do so as far as I know.
ETA: Another advantage of national electoral commissions is consistency. I have voted for the Australian House of Representatives in two states (and at the Australian embassy in San Francisco), and in each case the ballot paper followed exactly the same format, the registration and ID process at the polling place is identical, and the ballots are counted in the same order in every electorate (pre-polls, mail votes, in-person votes, etc).
ETA: I just realised upthread that I accidentally referred to 'AZ' as 'NZ'. If New Zealand was contested in this election, it would be worth nine electoral votes (similar population to Alabama) and would be pretty safe for Biden.
In other news, the Prime Minister of Fiji has congratulated Joe Biden on his victory - the first national leader to do so as far as I know.
ETA: Another advantage of national electoral commissions is consistency. I have voted for the Australian House of Representatives in two states (and at the Australian embassy in San Francisco), and in each case the ballot paper followed exactly the same format, the registration and ID process at the polling place is identical, and the ballots are counted in the same order in every electorate (pre-polls, mail votes, in-person votes, etc).
ETA: I just realised upthread that I accidentally referred to 'AZ' as 'NZ'. If New Zealand was contested in this election, it would be worth nine electoral votes (similar population to Alabama) and would be pretty safe for Biden.
Last edited by Túrin Turambar on Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Túrin Turambar
- Posts: 6153
- Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:37 am
- Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
For those in the graveyard shift (American time) there seems to have been something of a lively competition to create the best hip-hop remix of Paula White's deranged sermon in support of the President. I like this one (some language warning):
Soon I'll be off to bed for the fourth time since counting the vote started. The last three I've been expecting the race to be called when I woke up, but this time I actually don't think the networks will risk it yet. The earliest I expect a call is tomorrow afternoon/evening U.S. time. But we'll see, things might develop quickly from the next ballot drop in NV and AZ.
Soon I'll be off to bed for the fourth time since counting the vote started. The last three I've been expecting the race to be called when I woke up, but this time I actually don't think the networks will risk it yet. The earliest I expect a call is tomorrow afternoon/evening U.S. time. But we'll see, things might develop quickly from the next ballot drop in NV and AZ.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Gee, imagine that!His simple expression of empathy for those who have lost loved ones was striking.
When the night has been too lonely, and the road has been too long,
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Meadows was the one who announced "we're not going to control the virus" a week or two ago. Guess a Trump official told the truth for once.N.E. Brigand wrote:(And meanwhile, the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and four other Trump aides have tested positive for coronavirus, and they've known for a couple days, but they were keeping it secret. On Oct. 27 Pres. Trump tweeted the following: "All the fake news media wants to talk about is Covid, Covid, Covid. On November 4th, you won't be hearing much about it anymore." Except he did it in all caps. I heard that same message from other conservatives as far back as July. But besides Meadows and four others testing positive, Nov. 4th was the first time the daily number of cases nationwide surpassed 100,000, only for the next day to have 120,000 and the day after that to have 128,000. All of it reported in the press. And Joe Biden tonight said if we do nothing, we'll reach 200,000 cases per day.)
And Meadows was at Trump's indoor election party maskless. We could be about to have a swath of his inner circle go out sick with COVID at the same time. Again.
- elengil
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
That's the tricky thing about 'bi-partisan' support. You can have broad bi-partisan appeal among the populace, but that never seems to translate into bi-partisan support within the government. So much for 'representation'.Túrin Turambar wrote:After today's developments, I actually think the first step is to establish an independent national electoral commission, similar to the ones every other advanced democracy (e.g. Elections Canada, Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Commission of the UK, etc). After this election, it would presumably have bipartisan support.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
^^ And that's why things like drug laws end up getting changed by referendum in states that allow such things.
When you can do nothing what can you do?
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Pennsylvania has been called. Joseph R. Biden is now the projected winner of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Some music: The Star Spangled Banner
Some music: The Star Spangled Banner
When you can do nothing what can you do?
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Big step, but it ain't over til he's gone.
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Five outlets called the election within two minutes of each other at about 11:25 a.m. EST, in this order: CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, AP.
Fox called Pennsylvania and thus the election about 15 minutes after the other networks did, and they also called Nevada.
It's no longer necessary for the outcome, but Arizona, which Fox called late Tuesday and the AP called Wedneday, keeps tightening, and Biden's lead is down to 20,573. However, most prognosticators say that Trump's increases there are falling just shy of what he'd need to catch up. So it's looking very much like Biden 306, Trump 232, which as other have noted, is the same margin Trump had over Clinton (setting aside faithless electors).
Decision Desk HQ, which has not called Arizona, called Pennsylvania and the election yesterday morning, about 26 hours before the networks did so today.
Fox called Pennsylvania and thus the election about 15 minutes after the other networks did, and they also called Nevada.
It's no longer necessary for the outcome, but Arizona, which Fox called late Tuesday and the AP called Wedneday, keeps tightening, and Biden's lead is down to 20,573. However, most prognosticators say that Trump's increases there are falling just shy of what he'd need to catch up. So it's looking very much like Biden 306, Trump 232, which as other have noted, is the same margin Trump had over Clinton (setting aside faithless electors).
Decision Desk HQ, which has not called Arizona, called Pennsylvania and the election yesterday morning, about 26 hours before the networks did so today.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I know, I know, Dave. I won't quite believe it till I see the back of the U-Haul, but still, for this moment,...
Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Breathe!
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Lali, Trump's an entrepreneur. He won't rent a U-Haul. He'll start his own moving company and have a great big black truck with TRUMP RELOCATION SERVICES printed on the sides in big gold letters.
When you can do nothing what can you do?
- elengil
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Even though it looks like it'll end up 49/51 - if the Senate split 50/50, would Democrats be given the majority position since the VP would be the tie-breaker? Or how does a 50/50 senate split work?
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Yes, if everyone votes along party lines.
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I think 52-48 Republican lead is the likely outcome, with Democrats losing both Senate run-offs in Georgia in January. But if the Senate does get to 50-50, then yes, Vice President Harris breaks all ties, so Democrats would have the majority.elengil wrote:Even though it looks like it'll end up 49/51 - if the Senate split 50/50, would Democrats be given the majority position since the VP would be the tie-breaker? Or how does a 50/50 senate split work?
Although I guess for the first 17 days of the new Senate, Pence would still be V.P. and thus the tie-breaker.
Last edited by N.E. Brigand on Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- elengil
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Well how they vote isn't necessarily the same as who is 'declared' the majority party - since that has a lot of bearing on who is in charge of committees and such.Dave_LF wrote:Yes, if everyone votes along party lines.
AhN.E. Brigand wrote: I think 52-48 Republican lead is the likely outcome, with Democrats losing both Senate run-offs in Georgia in January. But if the Senate does get to 50-50, then yes, Vice President Harris breaks all ties, so Democrats would have the majority.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Yes, but this is the step we need to keep going.Dave_LF wrote:Big step, but it ain't over til he's gone.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.
Terry Pratchett, Guards! Guards!
Terry Pratchett, Guards! Guards!