2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
It is now 9pm Wednesday my local time, 5am EST. The electoral elves have been putting in a sterling effort in WI and they seem likely to make their 6am deadline. Biden now has the narrowest of leads, and as the outstanding ballots are from Green Bay and Milwaukee, his chances in the state look good. NYT is still unwilling to call NZ and NV, but both are looking likely for Biden. The other four states are anyone's guess, but if Biden can pull off WI he needs only one more.
It's a funny thing, but it's perfectly-possible for Biden to win all states still contested, which would be a comfortable Electoral College victory. He is likely to beat Clinton's popular vote edge. It would still be a polling miss, but still a win along the lines of Obama's 2012 performance. On the flipside, he could lose them all and leave us with a map very similar to 2016 with only AZ flipped. It's remarkable that both are still possible even at this late stage.
The bigger news is the President's claim of voter fraud and his insistence that's won a big victory. If Biden does win, this could get bad - really bad.
I honestly have no idea what I'll wake up to tomorrow.
It's a funny thing, but it's perfectly-possible for Biden to win all states still contested, which would be a comfortable Electoral College victory. He is likely to beat Clinton's popular vote edge. It would still be a polling miss, but still a win along the lines of Obama's 2012 performance. On the flipside, he could lose them all and leave us with a map very similar to 2016 with only AZ flipped. It's remarkable that both are still possible even at this late stage.
The bigger news is the President's claim of voter fraud and his insistence that's won a big victory. If Biden does win, this could get bad - really bad.
I honestly have no idea what I'll wake up to tomorrow.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
And yet I can just imagine the reaction if three states controlled by Republicans where Trump had been expected to win easily but Biden was maintaining a consistent lead, suddenly and simultaneously halted the vote count for no apparent reason at an unusually early hour, and workers were observed carrying boxes of ballots out of the building. No one would have had a problem with that at all.N.E. Brigand wrote: It's really not suspicious at all. We were repeatedly told in advance that the vote would not be all counted tonight. And I think that as a general matter, boards of election in urban areas are underfunded and understaffed compared to other districts.
Avatar photo by Richard Lykes, used with permission.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Hmm... a 270 Biden - 268 Trump finish?
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- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
He just tweeted it again, and this time I agree with him. It's possible PA won't even matter in the end, which would be a relief.Dave_LF wrote:One of Biden's campaign managers, Rufus Gifford, just tweeted "We're going to win". That could just be "go team go!", but hopefully someone that official wouldn't say that sort of thing carelessly given where the race is right now.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I'd imagine the reaction amongst some might sound similar to this:Cerin wrote:And yet I can just imagine the reaction if three states controlled by Republicans where Trump had been expected to win easily but Biden was maintaining a consistent lead, suddenly and simultaneously halted the vote count for no apparent reason at an unusually early hour, and workers were observed carrying boxes of ballots out of the building. No one would have had a problem with that at all.N.E. Brigand wrote: It's really not suspicious at all. We were repeatedly told in advance that the vote would not be all counted tonight. And I think that as a general matter, boards of election in urban areas are underfunded and understaffed compared to other districts.
Cerin, in 2016 wrote:All of the swing states have Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, who will control the voting processes in those states. Eighty percent of votes will be cast on electronic voting machines that are owned by Republican-leaning corporations; the machines have no means of verification and have been proven easy to tamper with without detection. Because they are privately owned and their codes are proprietary, there is no public access. This is the way we value our right to vote in this country. I'd say we deserve whatever corrupt government such a corruptible system produces.
I wanna love somebody but I don't know how
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
-The Decemberists
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Yes, I think so. Hope so.Snowdog wrote:Hmm... a 270 Biden - 268 Trump finish?
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
If it’s 269-269 because of ME CD-2, ME is going to feel like an idiot.
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Stocks are very happy, with the major indexes up hundreds of points. Most encouraging to me is that the VIX volatility index aka "fear index" has dropped substantially, which I take to mean that some feared economically adverse event did not materialize. I can't say what that event was, but traders look to be feeling good about our economic future.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Stocks are idiots.
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Well yes, but within its own domain...
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Didn’t realize NE is already split - and one vote is to Biden. So, 270-268.Inanna wrote:If it’s 269-269 because of ME CD-2, ME is going to feel like an idiot.
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I'm not sure what the voting machine situation in 2016 has to do with the vote count being abruptly stopped in 3 Democrat-run states last night for no apparent reason other than that they didn't like the results they were getting, but regarding the quote, I believe many states ended their reliance on electronic machines since the last election because of those concerns. I'm not sure of the specifics nationwide, but at least in my state, there is no longer an electronic option and we have gone to paper ballots.yovargas wrote:Cerin wrote:
I'd imagine the reaction amongst some might sound similar to this:
Cerin, in 2016 wrote:All of the swing states have Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, who will control the voting processes in those states. Eighty percent of votes will be cast on electronic voting machines that are owned by Republican-leaning corporations; the machines have no means of verification and have been proven easy to tamper with without detection. Because they are privately owned and their codes are proprietary, there is no public access. This is the way we value our right to vote in this country. I'd say we deserve whatever corrupt government such a corruptible system produces.
Avatar photo by Richard Lykes, used with permission.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Cerin, the PA secretary essentially said: we have clearly laid out rules. And we will follow the rules to a T this time. Including the hours.
Frankly, I think that’s sensible. And that’s what the Supreme Court has been saying, there should be no last-minute/week/month changes. Pandemic or no. Immediate Clarity needed or no.
Frankly, I think that’s sensible. And that’s what the Supreme Court has been saying, there should be no last-minute/week/month changes. Pandemic or no. Immediate Clarity needed or no.
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Incidentally, Philadelphia did *not* halt counting overnight. They have live webcams of their poll workers to prove it. The whole accusation is just the usual social media bullshit.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
My post about vote-counting being stopped was based in part on a post by Voronwë which mentioned counting being stopped in certain places (I cannot now find that post), and then the on-line coverage I was listening to also mentioned three states stopping their vote count. My concerns were in real time last night and based on election coverage, not on whatever tales social media is spinning today (I have nothing to do with social media, other than HoF).Dave_LF wrote:Incidentally, Philadelphia did *not* halt counting overnight. They have live webcams of their poll workers to prove it. The whole accusation is just the usual social media bullshit.
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- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
I do not believe that I have made any such post, though it is possible that I am forgetting something.
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Gideon has conceded in Maine.
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Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
The Missouri governor race-was conceded last night. We are stuck with Mike Parson for another term. He reminds me so much of the cartoon character "Droopy Dog". I tried to find someone else drawing that comparison but couldn't- but it is so apt. *sigh* I was really hoping for someone different.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
When the night has been too lonely, and the road has been too long,
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
Re: 2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions
Not an election exactly but to my great surprise (not that I had been following anything to know what the expected outcome was), Florida has passed an amendment to increase the minimum wage to $15 over the next 5 years. I voted no on that myself, but it's really interesting how a policy that is generally considered quite far left would get past in a state that is usually voting for conservative representatives.
I wanna love somebody but I don't know how
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
-The Decemberists
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
-The Decemberists