2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Inanna]

You guys are far more optimistic than me right now.

If it comes down to PA, we won’t know today.

I've already said we are not going to know who wins tonight.

Oh right. I misread!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm surprised that I didn't mistype, as I so often do.

[Dave_LF]

Yeah, I don't know. It's looking to me like we're going to end up with pretty much the same map as 2016, maybe/probably with the exception of Arizona.

[Inanna]

Why are the channels not calling FL? Any idea?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Being overly-cautious. But it is a lost cause.

[Dave_LF]

I've been trying to read clues from movements in the markets, but I don't really now how to do that. DJ futures were up about 200 to begin with, then dove to -200 as Florida's numbers came in, but then bounced back to +200 again (right now they're at about +160). Markets care less about who wins than about having a clear result, so take that for what it's worth. Someone also said on Twitter that the Chinese yuan was tanking, which was interpreted as a pro-Trump signal. But I don't actually see that in the data at the WSJ; looks pretty flat to me...

[Túrin Turambar]

The AZ count has stopped at 75% and stayed there. It looks like PA has sent its poll workers home. OH still has tens of thousands of votes outstanding in Toledo, Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland. We might get Nevada tonight, but I doubt we'll hear anything more.

It's a huge hit for the pollsters again. Everyone will remember that they were 3 points off in FL, not that they were (apparently at this stage) dead-on in TX.

ETA: Starr County, TX, the most Hispanic County in the country, has gone from a near +60 margin for Clinton to a +5 margin for Biden.

As I'm writing this (11:23 pm) one network has called AZ for Biden and another called FL for Trump.

[Dave_LF]

Fox called AZ for Biden 10 minutes ago, but the news doesn't seem to be percolating... Nate Silver is "joking" about a 269-269 tie, which is no longer a long shot scenario.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Fox is also the only one to call Florida for Trump. They have also called the AZ senate race for Kelly. All of these might be premature.

[Túrin Turambar]

Midnight EST. Fox has called Ohio for Trump. In the PA counties which have finished counting votes, Trump is tracking close to his 2016 numbers. A crowd of about 500 has started marching around Lafayette Square in Washington D.C. chanting "No justice, no peace" and "The Revolution starts now". It's honestly looking dystopian.

[Cerin]

It's tremendously upsetting and suspicious that they are stopping the vote count in these vital areas where the process is controlled by Democrats and Trump is leading. Normally vote counting would continue long into the night. I've just heard a report that poll workers are walking out of a building in Va. with boxes of ballots! All this talk about Trump cheating, and it looks like we are witnessing a Democratic attempt to steal an election right before our eyes.

Those areas where counting was stopped should have been immediately secured, with lawyers from both parties witnessing the securing of the ballots as soon as the decision was made to stop the count. This is outrageous. I wonder what the plan for Philadelphia is -- leave the ballots unsecured and let antifa burn down the building?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Now the New York Times "Elections Needle" is giving Biden a 60% chance of winning Georgia. Not sure how that happened.

ETA: Now 68%!

[Dave_LF]

One of Biden's campaign managers, Rufus Gifford, just tweeted "We're going to win". That could just be "go team go!", but hopefully someone that official wouldn't say that sort of thing carelessly given where the race is right now.

[Sunsilver]

Now the New York Times "Elections Needle" is giving Biden a 60% chance of winning Georgia. Not sure how that happened.

ETA: Now 68%!

Seriously?? The news site I'm following say Trump is leading by 7 points!
The closest race seems to be North Carolina, with Trump ahead by 1 point, and 94% of the vote counted.

(Okay, my source is Yahoo News, and I have no idea how accurate they are...)

[Dave_LF]

Justin Amash, the ex-Republican Michigan Congressman who left the party over Trump, says: "In precincts that have fully reported, Donald Trump is underperforming his 2016 numbers by a significant margin in Kent County, Michigan."

Sunny: Atlanta basically hasn't reported yet. Tons of people, and extremely blue.

[Dave_LF]

If you go to the 538 model and plug in the winners for all the states that have been called so far (including AZ), Biden's odds actually go back to 88%--right where they began. Of course, you can't tell the model what the actual margins were in those states; I think it would give Trump a bigger chance if it realized just how badly Biden had lost in OH and IA.

[Túrin Turambar]

NYT is being extremely conservative with its calls, having finally called FL. It's unwilling to call another swing state (ETA: except OH and IA), so there's a still wide range of possible outcomes. Joe Biden just addressed his supporters, and says he believes he'll win. Donald Trump has claimed he's heading for a big win on Twitter. We'll have to see if either change their tune tomorrow morning.

[Túrin Turambar]

I'll need to head out shortly, but NYT is happy to call MN for Biden with 82% of the vote counted. His performance there far exceeds Clinton's. This is one of the odder aspects of this election - there are wildly-divergent results from state to state and region to region.

The President has tweeted that the election is being stolen, and will make a statement shortly. A lot hangs on what he says.

Kanye West just conceded defeat.

[River]

Cerin, do you have any concrete evidence that the volunteers, staff, and elected officials charged with the nuts and bolts of running the elections in PA and GA are in any way deviating from the procedures laid out by their Secretaries of State and are in any way uninterested in maintaining the integrity of the process? Any evidence that these ballot processing centers aren't under scrutiny? Any proof they're halting the count for the sake of shenanigans and not for the sake of the humans doing the work? Or are you parroting chatterboxes who get paid to wind people up? If you're concerned enough to post hysterically on the internet, have you ever considered offering up your time and energy as a poll watcher or election judge? If you're that passionate, get involved. You'll meet the kinds of people who do this work and you'll probably come to understand that there's a wide gulf between the chatter in the media and the actual reality of a ballot processing center.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's tremendously upsetting and suspicious that they are stopping the vote count in these vital areas where the process is controlled by Democrats and Trump is leading. Normally vote counting would continue long into the night. I've just heard a report that poll workers are walking out of a building in Va. with boxes of ballots! All this talk about Trump cheating, and it looks like we are witnessing a Democratic attempt to steal an election right before our eyes.

Those areas where counting was stopped should have been immediately secured, with lawyers from both parties witnessing the securing of the ballots as soon as the decision was made to stop the count. This is outrageous. I wonder what the plan for Philadelphia is -- leave the ballots unsecured and let antifa burn down the building?

It's really not suspicious at all. We were repeatedly told in advance that the vote would not be all counted tonight. And I think that as a general matter, boards of election in urban areas are underfunded and understaffed compared to other districts.

But I'm going to bed. All we can do now is wait and see.