Riots in Tunisia (and throughout the Middle-East)
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Primula Baggins
- Living in hope
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Sunrise in Cairo isn't for more than 7 hours.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Túrin Turambar
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Voronwë the Faithful
- At the intersection of here and now
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We shall hope so. Some high-ranking guy has to go in and say, "Sir, it's time for you to leave."
On the other hand, some of the things he said seemed to me to be warning "foreign powers" that they had no right to interfere or dictate and had better not - no matter what happens next.
There are many more tanks and armoured vehicles about, and the tank crews are not mingling with the crowds, they are locked in.
I do sincerely hope that the army will not fire on the people.
Even Mubarak knows things have to change but the change he has offered is just not enough. Let's hope he sees reason.
On the other hand, some of the things he said seemed to me to be warning "foreign powers" that they had no right to interfere or dictate and had better not - no matter what happens next.
There are many more tanks and armoured vehicles about, and the tank crews are not mingling with the crowds, they are locked in.
I do sincerely hope that the army will not fire on the people.
Even Mubarak knows things have to change but the change he has offered is just not enough. Let's hope he sees reason.
Dig deeper.
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axordil
- Pleasantly Twisted
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It takes time to shovel all that money into trucks.
I think the military is split. There's a faction--the Presidential guard--that's probably going to stay loyal, and there's a faction which is less attached to Mubarak. Then there's the secret police under the Interior ministry...this is going to end poorly for someone.
I think the military is split. There's a faction--the Presidential guard--that's probably going to stay loyal, and there's a faction which is less attached to Mubarak. Then there's the secret police under the Interior ministry...this is going to end poorly for someone.
For reasons I mentioned above, whilst it might be up to the army the army is somewhat factionalised. If you are military nerd like me you will notice that the tanks and vehicles that have been deployed are mainly those of the "second rank" formations - equiped with older kit and I would suggest less capable troops.
The vehicles of the main formations and the most "loyal" and motivated troops are not visible.
It is these people and there officers who hold the key.
You also need to consider the military/industrial complex which is the main benificiary of the US aid and the US firms who "sell" licenses to the Egyptians, and get some of the 1.5 billion back. These people control what will happen.
Forget the liberals and the Muslim Brotherhood -
Once you see the Abrams deployed then the decision will have been made as to which way Egypt will go.
The vehicles of the main formations and the most "loyal" and motivated troops are not visible.
It is these people and there officers who hold the key.
You also need to consider the military/industrial complex which is the main benificiary of the US aid and the US firms who "sell" licenses to the Egyptians, and get some of the 1.5 billion back. These people control what will happen.
Forget the liberals and the Muslim Brotherhood -
Once you see the Abrams deployed then the decision will have been made as to which way Egypt will go.
Since 1410 most Welsh people most of the time have abandoned any idea of independence as unthinkable. But since 1410 most Welsh people, at some time or another, if only in some secret corner of the mind, have been "out with Owain and his barefoot scrubs." For the Welsh mind is still haunted by it's lightning-flash vision of a people that was free.
Gwyn A. Williams,
Gwyn A. Williams,
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Primula Baggins
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Mubarak has resigned, handing over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Enormous jubilation in the streets.
What have they won? We'll have to see, I guess. But they've certainly won something (and certain other Middle Eastern regimes are probably feeling threatened now; I hope this doesn't lead to reactive crackdowns elsewhere).
What have they won? We'll have to see, I guess. But they've certainly won something (and certain other Middle Eastern regimes are probably feeling threatened now; I hope this doesn't lead to reactive crackdowns elsewhere).
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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nerdanel
- This is Rome
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I will be watching with skeptical interest to see what, exactly, women, religious minorities, and other groups that an Egyptian majority might disfavor have won today. Don't get me wrong, this is probably a step in the right direction. But even if it leads to democracy, I question whether anyone but some subset of Egypt's male Muslims will truly benefit from democracy's first iteration; I suspect that everyone else will have to wait their turn for a good while to come. If I am wrong, so much the better.
I won't just survive
Oh, you will see me thrive
Can't write my story
I'm beyond the archetype
I won't just conform
No matter how you shake my core
'Cause my roots, they run deep, oh
When, when the fire's at my feet again
And the vultures all start circling
They're whispering, "You're out of time,"
But still I rise
This is no mistake, no accident
When you think the final nail is in, think again
Don't be surprised, I will still rise
Oh, you will see me thrive
Can't write my story
I'm beyond the archetype
I won't just conform
No matter how you shake my core
'Cause my roots, they run deep, oh
When, when the fire's at my feet again
And the vultures all start circling
They're whispering, "You're out of time,"
But still I rise
This is no mistake, no accident
When you think the final nail is in, think again
Don't be surprised, I will still rise
The army are in control, one has to hope that their paymasters are men of moderation who realise that a pluralist society is the best way to ensure stability in the Mahgreb, and that a prosperous fair nation is the most effective way to emasculate the purveyors of hate.
Since 1410 most Welsh people most of the time have abandoned any idea of independence as unthinkable. But since 1410 most Welsh people, at some time or another, if only in some secret corner of the mind, have been "out with Owain and his barefoot scrubs." For the Welsh mind is still haunted by it's lightning-flash vision of a people that was free.
Gwyn A. Williams,
Gwyn A. Williams,
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Primula Baggins
- Living in hope
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Do you think that's possible, eborr?
A commentator last night (can't remember where) said that this kind of peaceful and successful (apparently) revolution is Al Qaeda's worst nightmare. They prosper where people are oppressed.
A commentator last night (can't remember where) said that this kind of peaceful and successful (apparently) revolution is Al Qaeda's worst nightmare. They prosper where people are oppressed.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Voronwë the Faithful
- At the intersection of here and now
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I'm cautiously optimistic. The Egyptian military has a closer to relationship to ours than practically any in the world. Almost all of the mid to high level officers (except the oldest generation) have lived and trained in the U.S. I think there is a fairly good chance that they will help deliver real change.
And, of course, if we only support and encourage change that is immediately perfect, we won't ever support and encourage any change ever.
Edited to add a strangely missing "if".
And, of course, if we only support and encourage change that is immediately perfect, we won't ever support and encourage any change ever.
Edited to add a strangely missing "if".
Last edited by Voronwë the Faithful on Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
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Primula Baggins
- Living in hope
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Good point, Voronwë (one I am trying hard to absorb in regard to U.S. politics 
).
).“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Voronwë the Faithful
- At the intersection of here and now
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It's a better point now that it actually makes sense gramatically. 
I hadn't seen your previous post before. That's an excellent point about al Qaeda. And those who are worried about the Muslim Brotherhood co-opting this revolution and turning Egypt into an Islamic state that provides support to al Qaeda should know that the two organizations are actually bitter enemies of each other. In his book, Knights Under the Prophet's Banner, al Qaeda's Egyptian number two man, Ayman Zawahiri, bitterly denounces the Muslim Brotherhood. It is unclear at this point how influential the Brotherhood will be in any new government, but fears that it will turn Egypt into an Islamic terrorist-supporting state are completely unfounded.
I also think it is important that there not be a push for immediate elections before the proper procedures and safeguards are put into place.
I hadn't seen your previous post before. That's an excellent point about al Qaeda. And those who are worried about the Muslim Brotherhood co-opting this revolution and turning Egypt into an Islamic state that provides support to al Qaeda should know that the two organizations are actually bitter enemies of each other. In his book, Knights Under the Prophet's Banner, al Qaeda's Egyptian number two man, Ayman Zawahiri, bitterly denounces the Muslim Brotherhood. It is unclear at this point how influential the Brotherhood will be in any new government, but fears that it will turn Egypt into an Islamic terrorist-supporting state are completely unfounded.
I also think it is important that there not be a push for immediate elections before the proper procedures and safeguards are put into place.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
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BrianIsSmilingAtYou
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May I add my cautious optimism?
As some of you may know, my younger brother and his wife are Muslim; she is from Pakistan, and she decries the many of the same kinds of things in Pakistan that were problems in Egypt.
Both countries (and many others) still have a long road ahead of them.
Maybe this will show the way to another path in the Islamic world, which has suffered politically for a long time.
BrianIs
AtYou
As some of you may know, my younger brother and his wife are Muslim; she is from Pakistan, and she decries the many of the same kinds of things in Pakistan that were problems in Egypt.
Both countries (and many others) still have a long road ahead of them.
Maybe this will show the way to another path in the Islamic world, which has suffered politically for a long time.
BrianIs
AtYou
All of my nieces and nephews at my godson/nephew Nicholas's Medical School graduation. Now a neurosurgical resident at University of Arizona, Tucson.
As I said previously I spent quite a lot of time working with the Egyptian military on a project in 2008-2009, I got to know the Defence Attache and his deputy quite well, and I also had meetings with a couple of 2 star Generals, as well as a range of middle ranking officers.
Whilst all these individuals were more than competent as technocrats and I guess as soldiers, and at a social level they were perfectly charming, it seemed to me that even the senior officers were uncomfortable with making decisions.
The one thing that I found in common with the military,the civil servants that supported them and the folks in the business who supplied them was a very strong sense of national pride. At a risk of sounding knowing, I would say that their sense of being Egyptian was just as important as their sense of being Muslim.
Whilst all these individuals were more than competent as technocrats and I guess as soldiers, and at a social level they were perfectly charming, it seemed to me that even the senior officers were uncomfortable with making decisions.
The one thing that I found in common with the military,the civil servants that supported them and the folks in the business who supplied them was a very strong sense of national pride. At a risk of sounding knowing, I would say that their sense of being Egyptian was just as important as their sense of being Muslim.
Since 1410 most Welsh people most of the time have abandoned any idea of independence as unthinkable. But since 1410 most Welsh people, at some time or another, if only in some secret corner of the mind, have been "out with Owain and his barefoot scrubs." For the Welsh mind is still haunted by it's lightning-flash vision of a people that was free.
Gwyn A. Williams,
Gwyn A. Williams,