U.S. Election Night 2008

[vison]

Ach, they were dressed like normal people, that's all.

I thought Mrs. Obama's black dress, with the black surrounding all that red, was pretty symbolic. Probably on purpose. She's lovely and designers are going to want to dress her, the way they did Jackie Kennedy.

Good work, you guys. Most of the people in the world are going to think, "Wow!"

[ArathornJax]

I have to say, I enjoyed his speech. As an historian and someone who holds degrees in English I expected references to Lincoln and felt that his speech writer did a fantastic job of linking Lincoln's speech references. It was perhaps a bit too long but it was very seriousness and the lack of confetti and celebration reflect to me the seriousness of the situation he is getting into. His words that we may not get there in one or two years or even one term reflects the complexity of the issues this country is facing. He will need to show movement though. The first chapter of this book has now been opened and it will be very interesting to watch as the pages are written during his Presidency. It makes me think of Dicken's

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it ws the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way."

I am in awe though that I watched history being made tonight and it will be something I remember and before retiring, I will record it in my journal.

A final thought. February 12, 2009 is the 200th anniversary of the birth of Abraham Lincoln. What a twist that the President that will preside over that celebration (which has already been planned at the Lincoln Center and Memorial) will be an African American President and from the same state as Lincoln. Truly, despite our flaws, this country of the people and by the people continues to grow and overcome the very weaknesses and flaws that exist within it. May we continue to do so.

[vison]

I watched all this on CNN.com. Both speeches. But that was live.

[themary]

Obama's from the Land of Lincoln so it was only appropriate to quote Lincoln in his speech. It made me incredibly proud to be from Illinois (the s is silent). Obama knows where he came from and he'll be taking that good ol' Midwestern charm back to DC (again) .

[Frelga]

I'm again struck by the thing that caught my attention in the first place; the sheer sense of context the man has.

That struck me too, beginning with the debates. He is a thoughtful man, whose education had given him the breadth and the depth to see the connections between events. He has shown that he can stay cool under enormous pressure, civil in the face of enmity, and at least appear humble in the face of decisive victory. He has shown, too, that he can bring people together, and inspire them, not to hate a common enemy, not to deride a boogie man, but to act on their best dreams for common good.

I have high hopes for President Obama.

[ToshoftheWuffingas]

It's ten to six in the morning. I really ought to get some sleep but I have to go into town in 3 hours.

[Holbytla]

Obama is from Hawaii.
And went to school in Massachusetts.

[River]

And is the Senator from Illinois. So he had the favored son thing going for him in three states.

[WampusCat]

Meanwhile, Obama has apparently won North Carolina by around 10,000 votes. I'm amazed!

And happy.

And heading home to celebrate.

[Primula Baggins]

I saw that! I'm so happy. NBC has also apparently called Indiana for Obama.

I wanted him to win, but to have it be a landslide is extra sweet.

[River]

Looks like Udall is taking the open Senate seat in CO. And Musgrave is out of CD 4 (w00t!). CD 2, my district, hasn't been called yet but 41% of the precincts have reported in and Polis has a >60% lead. CD 2, home of Boulder County, is pretty much guaranteed to go blue anyway.

[WampusCat]

Missouri is even closer than North Carolina! Only about 400 votes separate McCain and Obama.

[Túrin Turambar]

I wanted him to win, but to have it be a landslide is extra sweet.

To be a wet blanket, 350-odd electoral votes and a 52-47 split in the popular vote is hardly a landlside. It's a comfortable win, and more decisive than Bush's two narrow ones, but about average as far as modern elections go. If anything, it's significantly closer than I and the polls expected - most of the battleground states went to Obama by less than one percent of the vote.

ETA: Obama is, however, the first Democrat to win a majority of the overall popular vote since 1976. He also won (from memory) about 43% of the white vote, which is quite good for a Democrat, and the first Democratic candidate to carry Indiana since 1964 and North Carolina since 1976. So Democrats certainly have reason to celebrate. It's also interesting to notice the complete collapse of Republican support in their old stronghold of New England - only one county (in Maine) went for McCain (not to mention their Congressional losses).

[Primula Baggins]

It will be 364 electoral votes, I'm betting (he'll get NC and already has IN), and that is a landslide: more than 2:1. What would be your threshold, Lord_M? 3:1? 4:1?

In modern American politics, a 52-47 popular vote split is a big one. I don't think bigger margins are likely any more. And remember that we all know it's a matter of electoral votes—if driving up the popular vote margin were of any value, campaigns would be run to do this. They aren't because it isn't.

[Túrin Turambar]

Here is where the 2008 election sits in EV and PV margin for all elections since 1960 (assuming the splits are 364-174 and 52-47, or 5%):

EV Margin

1984: 525-13
1972: 520-17
1980: 489-49
1964: 486-52
1988: 426-111
1996: 379-159
1992: 370-168
2008: 364-174
1960: 303-219
1968: 301-191
1976: 297-240
2004: 286-251
2000: 271-266

PV Margin

1972: 23%
1964: 23%
1984: 18%
1980: 10%
1996: 9%
1988: 8%
1992: 6%
2008: 5%
2004: 2%
1976: 2%
1968: 1%
2000: -1%

I don’t buy that elections like 1964, 1972 and 1984 are no longer possible; they just need the right combination of candidates and circumstances. Still, even taking into account elections like 1992 and 1968 which were distorted by the presence of strong third-party candidates, Obama’s win this year has been about average for a modern election in terms of both EV and PV. What would I consider a landslide? An EV and PV margin around the vicinity of 1988.

[Holbytla]

I was of the belief 60% constituted a landslide. Which Nixon was the last to achieve. Reagan was close.

[Túrin Turambar]

I was of the belief 60% constituted a landslide. Which Nixon was the last to achieve. Reagan was close.

It's a high threshold (only four Presidents have won elections with 60% or more). I think the margin matters more than the winner's overall vote, though. For example, in 1980 and 2004 the winning candidates won 50.7% of the vote. Reagan won close to 10% more of the vote than Carter, however (due to third party candidate John Anderson) while Bush won less than 2.5% more than Kerry. As such, Reagan won the Electoral Vote 489-49 while Bush only won it 286-251. Any reasonable observer would probably call Reagan's 44-state win a landslide.

[Alatar]

Congratulations America, you've made the rest of the World very happy today. Its a truly historic day, in the real sense of that often overused word. Our national radio station played a clip this morning that really summed it up. They spoke of the fact that when Obama was born, a black man didn't even have the right to vote, then played Dylans "The Times they are a changin'" with excerpts from Martin Luther Kings; "I have a dream" speech, and bothe McCains and Obamas speeches last night. It was very moving. I'll try to get a clip later.

ETA: http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/1105/mornin ... 2,null,209

Go to about 2:55 and listen from there.

[Pearly Di]

Wow, America, you have made history.

:):):):):):):):):):)

I was reading in the London Metro this morning how Obama's Kenyan relatives are going to celebrate with a roasted bull.

I thought McCain's speech was very classy, by the way.

And now I wish President Obama the very best as he takes over the reins in very difficult economic times.

Some pundit on the BBC was saying the other day that the most popular American presidents, the ones we remember, tend to be those who are President during very difficult times, e.g. Lincoln during the Civil War, Roosevelt and the Great Depression, JKF and the Cold War.

So your new President can take encouragement from that.

[Túrin Turambar]

On another tack, I honest-to-God can't believe that the Alaska senate race is too close to call.