Delegate Mirth ( the end has come! )

Discussions of and about the historic 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
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Faramond
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Post by Faramond »

I agree with Cerin that the Michigan and Florida situation has been horribly bungled by the DNC, and that it never should have come to the point that it has.
Yes, it doesn't look good, and it's become a mess now. But I have to wonder, what should the DNC have done differently in Florida and Michigan?

I have to wonder if the RNC really handled their own Florida and Michigan situation better. Oh yes, in terms of this year the RNC looks better --- there is no fight over seating delegates and all of that. But the punishment the RNC gave ( stripping away half the delegates ) was not a punishment at all! Florida ended up being perhaps the most important state in the Republican calendar this year; it established McCain as the clear frontrunner and knocked Guiliani out of the race, clearing the way for McCain to dominate Super Tuesday. What state, contemplating moving their primary earlier, will care about losing half of their delegates if it means so much attention and importance? I think the RNC has created a bigger potential mess over the long term.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

I've been meaning to mention, Faramond, that I like the new thread title. :D

The whole primary system is a mess. I'd vote for Wampuscat's proposal of a series of regional primaries, with the order in which the regions vote changing with each election. That would let candidates campaign regionally, and would not let any small group of states dominate the national dialogue.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
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Voronwë the Faithful
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

What an excellent (and widely disregarded in the media) observation, Faramond.
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Post by axordil »

What state, contemplating moving their primary earlier, will care about losing half of their delegates if it means so much attention and importance? I think the RNC has created a bigger potential mess over the long term.
V-man was right, that's an extremely salient point.

One of the reasons there ARE national committees is precisely because of the "tragedy of the commons" waiting to happen when everyone wants their primary first "so it matters." A bad system is better than a free-for-all. Of course a good system would be better still, and one hopes the luminaries are taking away some lessons from this primary season.
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Post by tinwë »

Voronwë_the_Faithful wrote: To me, what would be a worst-case scenerio would be to have the race unfairly influenced by votes that simply can not be considered by any standard to have legitimately reflected the will of the voters.

emphasis mine

I don’t mean to single you out here V, but I keep hearing this complaint from some on the Obama side about the influence of the Michigan and Florida vote and I keep finding it a little puzzling. Forget for a moment the fact that those results will not, at this point, alter the outcome of the race. The truth is, whatever “influence” those votes are going to have will happen whether the delegates are seated or not or whether they can vote at the convention or not. As everyone knows at this point, the superdelegates are going to decide this race, and they can look at the results of the two contests and see who voted for who and who didn’t and draw their own conclusions from it. The races can’t be undone regardless of whether they were fair or not, so their influence (on the superdelegates) exists whether the races are officially recognized or not.

I just don’t see what the big deal is. Seat the delegates. Let ‘em vote. Whatever, it’s not going to change anything.

Eta - North Carolina doesn’t want it’s primary earlier, in fact I believe we moved ours to a later date some years ago because we didn’t want an early primary. There was actually quite a lot of resentment here this year that the presidential primary wasn’t decided before it got here because it seriously cut into the campaign time of the local races that were being decided. The sword cuts both ways here.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

Here in Oregon we're pretty excited that our primary not only counts but may be what gives Obama the majority of pledged delegates (fun to think he might give that victory speech in Portland, say). And we're actually seeing the candidates, who are staying a couple of days and campaigning across the state (instead of speaking for twenty minutes at an airport rally and booking it back to the East Coast). Clinton was here yesterday and Obama arrives today. There's another rally in Eugene tonight.

That said, there's no question it's drawing attention and funds away from the other primaries on the ballot, including a Senate race and numerous statewide, county, and city offices.

As for FL and MI, the May 31st rules meeting is going to be interesting. Which principle will win out? That's what it will be about by then.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
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Post by Cerin »

Voronwë wrote:To me, what would be a worst-case scenerio would be to have the race unfairly influenced by votes that simply can not be considered by any standard to have legitimately reflected the will of the voters. That would be the most undemocratic result of all, because it would essentially disenfranchise the voters of all the states that had legitimate votes.

I would like to address this in parts, as I'm having difficulty approaching the intertwined ideas as a unit.
To me, what would be a worst-case scenerio would be to have the race unfairly influenced
The race has already been irrevocably influenced unfairly. Nothing can be done to change that. We will never know how those states would have voted had they run uninterfered-with primaries at the appropriate time. It isn't fair to the candidates, it isn't fair to the voters of those states, it isn't fair to the voters of the other states, there is nothing fair about it. If your criterion of success here is fairness, then you are sunk, my friend, any which way you turn.

by votes that simply can not be considered by any standard to have legitimately reflected the will of the voters.

The votes recorded do reflect the will of the voters who voted, with respect to the ballots they voted on.

What the MI and FL votes don't and can't reflect is how voters who chose not to vote because of the confused situation would have voted, or how many of the Michigan voters who voted 'none of above' were registering a vote for Obama, or how the vote would have been different had the candidates campaigned, or how any one of a myriad of factors in the campaign would have been different had that vote taken place at a later time.

That would be the most undemocratic result of all, because it would essentially disenfranchise the voters of all the states that had legitimate votes.
If you view the illegitimate aspects of the primaries as disenfranchising all the rest of the electorate, then that is a fait accompli regardless of how the problem is dealt with. Those primary votes can't be made legitimate. By that calculation, ignoring the vote entirely would be no more nor less disenfranchising than allowing it to stand as is. If I understand your view, the voters of all the states that had legitimate primaries have already been disenfranchised, and there is nothing that can be done about it.

So here, as I see it, are the issues you isolated:

1. race unfairly influenced - already done, nothing you can do about it

2. will of all voters not reflected - already done, nothing you can do about it

3. undemocratic due to disenfranchisement - already done, nothing you can do about it

You are wanting to deal with aspects of this that are beyond reach and simply can't be affected at this point. If this is your focus, then from my point of view, you might as well cover your head with a pillow until after the convention.


These are the aspects of the situation that concern me, which I think we can still react to on principle:

1. Leadership handled the situation badly -- should take responsibility

2. State leaders disrespected the authority of the party -- should bear a consequence

3. Voters did nothing wrong -- should not be penalized

So I would suggest that Dean and whoever else was responsible publicly admit that they handled it badly, that they threatened punishment to the voters when it was the party leadership that were misbehaving, that because their threat was misguided and the results horrendous, they are not going to make the voters or the eventual nominee suffer for their mistake, so they are either

1. withdrawing the originally proposed penalty and substituting a more appropriate one -- they are excluding from the convention any superdelegates who had any part in orchestrating the advancement of those primaries.

or,

2. withdrawing the originally proposed penalty and announcing that next time, any superdelegates who have any part in orchestrating the advancement of primaries counter to DNC rules will be excluded from the convention.

That is what makes sense to me, on principle.

River wrote:Fine, so long as the party leadership in MI and FL goes down with him. There's a lot of shared responsibility to go around here.
Absolutely! (Btw, I'm a big fan of Howard Dean, regardless that he handled this poorly.)
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Post by River »

Or just deny the whole state, superdelegates on down.

It'll be unfair to the voters of course, but it'll also drive the voters to hit their party leaders right where it hurts the most: the ballot box.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Obama picked up four more superdelegates today. AP is reporting that at this rate he is likely to receive the 2025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination (unless the number changes due to MI and FL) by the time the primaries are finished.

Speaking of Michigan and Florida, Obama will be campaigning in both states (as well as swing state Missouri) in the coming week.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

Well, someone on the Clinton campaign predicted a victory margin for Clinton of 80-20 or 90-10, so we'll just have to see about that.

(It's going to be a big Clinton win, no question. But I don't think it will be enough to make a difference.)
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Prim, I presume you are talking about West Virginia? I'm not quite sure how your post follows mine? :scratch:
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

Sorry, yes, I meant West Virginia. I'd just been reading a story where a Clinton supporter reacted to the news you posted by saying, basically, Clinton is going to fin the popular vote because she'll win by huge margins in WV and KY. I sort of left out a step there.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Obama currently leads the popular vote by 846,801, if you include estimates for IA, NV, ME, and WA. Even without those states, he leads by 736,579. Okay, let's add in FL, just for kicks. He still leads by 441,807. Let's get really wacky and add-in Clinton's votes for MI, without giving Obama any votes there. He STILL leads by 113,498. Even with landslide victories in West Virginia and Kentucky, Clinton is not likely to overcome even that lead, given the fact that Obama is likely to win Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. And, of course, no one outside of Clinton's inner circle believes that a popular vote that includes Michigan is a valid indicator.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

And, in any case, talking about the popular vote is a distraction from what's actually going to determine the nominee.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Quite true. The only relevance that the popular vote has is as a factor to be considered by the superdelegates (one factor among many, Cerin :)). It is quite clear which way the superdelegates are going. Landslides in WV and Kentucky are not going to change that.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Disregarding for a moment the fact that the resolution of Florida and Michigan is likely to change the math some, if Obama receives half of the remaining pledged delegates in PR, MT and SD, he needs only 15 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination. He is likely to have received that many by June 3, the date of the last contest.

By my calculations, Clinton would need 98% of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to prevail (assuming an even split of the remaining pledged delegates). Even if there is a resolution of Michigan and Florida that is favorable to her, she would still need a large majority of them. Far larger than is (or has been for some time) realistically possible.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

Some commentators I've read feel her Bobby Kennedy remark will cause a rush of superdelegates to Obama. If that's true, we'll know Tuesday, probably.

Oregon still has six uncommitted superdelegates, and our state went strongly for Obama. I suspect most of them will go for Obama too.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Three new superdelegates were chosen in Hawaii, all Obama supporters.
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Post by Primula Baggins »

According to the Huffington Post, the DNC rules committee is close to an agreement that would seat both FL and MI delegations in full with half-votes.

The uncommitted Michigan delegates would be granted to Obama with the agreement of the other candidates who were also not on the ballot.

It wasn't clear what would happen with superdelegates. It's possible they won't be allowed a vote at all, as the whole idea is to punish the state parties for moving the primary.

All in all, this would net Clinton about 28 delegates. But by almost all counts she is more than 200 delegates behind Obama. It won't take many superdelegates going Obama's way after June 3rd to put him over the top (the new top).

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

After watching a good portion of the hearings this morning, I've got to say that I don't think any deal has been reached, particularly on Michigan. It may still turn out that way, but the Clinton supporters on the committee appear to be pretty darned entrenched in their positions. We'll see later (maybe).
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