Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[N.E. Brigand]

Germany announced today that it is shipping 1000 anti-tank missiles and 500 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

This is especially notable because Germany seemed to be dragging its feet, as it were -- although the German chancellor did say more than a week before the invasion started that a Russian attack would cause the end of the Nordstream-2 pipeline project by which Russia was to supply Germany with natural gas (and that's what happened on Thursday).

[Sunsilver]

I
And on the right, rejection of the horseshoe theory manifests as the claim that all totalitarians are actually leftists, an argument which requires defining fascism as socialism: "Hitler was a 'national socialist'!" (Never mind that the Nazis persecuted actual socialists, or that neo-Nazi groups support the right much more often than they support the left; c.f. the torchbearing "Unite the Right" rally in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia.)

Yes!

[N.E. Brigand]

Today at the Conservative Political Action conference ("CPAC") conference today, Robert O’Brien, who succeeded John Bolton as Donald Trump's National Security Advisor in 2019 and served until the end of Trump's term in office, said this:

"Make no mistake, Putin is a killer who wants to rebuild the Russian Empire. He is not a person to be admired no matter how charming or clever he is portrayed to be."

Too subtle, probably, but clearly a dig at O'Brien's former boss who a earlier this week described Putin's attack as "genius" and 'brilliant." Yesterday afternoon I listened to the conservative talk radio program on which Trump first made those remarks and they were outraged that the media was interpreting Trump's comments as being sympathetic to Putin's actions. To be fair, Trump never explicitly endorsed the attack, and he did say it would never have happened if he was president. But I would note that Trump didn't condemn the attack either (as most American politicians, left or right, have done).

[N.E. Brigand]

It looks like we're moving closer to Russia being cut off from SWIFT, the international financial transaction system. That was a move not taken Thursday, because a number of key nations objected (as U.S. President Joe Biden made clear when announcing other sanctions, this is not a step the U.S. can take alone), but they seem to be coming around. I think the reluctance is understandable. Russia or Russian businesses owe a lot of money to creditors who now won't be able to collect.

Unfortunately, the stronger the steps taken against Russia, the more it suggests to me that other countries fear this war will expand past Ukraine.

[N.E. Brigand]

I still think Ukraine is going to lose badly, but:



If the poster's name sounds familiar: Alex Vindman was the lieutenant colonel and Ukraine expert on the National Security Council who testified to Congress as part of the first impeachment inquiry of President Trump, which concerned Trump's efforts to blackmail Ukraine by withholding aid authorized by Congress until Ukraine's president would announce that they were investigating the Biden family. (This almost happened: President Zelensky had an interview scheduled for CNN in late September 2019, but he cancelled it because Trump released the aid once he learned that a whistleblower had reported his extortion attempt). Following Trump's acquittal in the Senate, Trump had both Vindman and his brother Yevgeny removed from their White House positions, and Alex Vindman subsequently retired once it appeared that the Trump administration was engaging in retaliation by blocking his scheduled promotion to full colonel.

- - - - - - - - - -
In other news, the Urkainian defense ministry claims that they have destroyed all rail lines from Russia to Ukraine.

[RoseMorninStar]

And on the right, rejection of the horseshoe theory manifests as the claim that all totalitarians are actually leftists, an argument which requires defining fascism as socialism: "Hitler was a 'national socialist'!" (Never mind that the Nazis persecuted actual socialists, or that neo-Nazi groups support the right much more often than they support the left; c.f. the torchbearing "Unite the Right" rally in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia.)

I find there is a huge problem with semantics and how political divisions are defined and used. I'm not sure if that is intentional or used conveniently or if it is confined to the US, but what is 'left' here would be defined as 'center' in Europe.

(...)To be fair, Trump never explicitly endorsed the attack, and he did say it would never have happened if he was president. But I would note that Trump didn't condemn the attack either (as most American politicians, left or right, have done).

*cough* Kerch Strait Incident Nov. 25, 2018. Trump did nothing.. the entire time he was president.. to rebuke Putin/Russia's aggression. (more).

Frelga, the space station? Seriously.. Putin is insane. I hope some of this stuff is getting through to the Russian people.

Cutting SWIFT off will take some navigation because it won't only affect Putin/Russians so I'm not surprised they are taking that slow.

[Frelga]

20220225_154300.jpg (86.93 KiB) Viewed 2134 times

[N.E. Brigand]

Maria Butina is a Russian spy who made inroads into the National Rifle Association and thus was able to meet a lot of members of the Republican party:



Just a month after Donald Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, Butina, then posing as a journalist, attended a news conference at which she asked Trump about Russia, to which he responded by saying that if he became president, "I don't think you'd need the sanctions" that were then in place due to Russia's invasion of Crimea. It's never been determined why Trump said this. Did he legitimately feel the sanctions were not in U.S. interests? Did he want the sanctions lifted because they stood in the way of his own longstanding plans to develop property in Moscow? (Remember: there were two Trump Tower Moscow proposals, one of which dated to 2013 when Trump's Miss Universe pageant was held there and he publicly wished that Putin would become "my new best friend," and the other which was initiated in late 2015, i.e., later than this event, and which for which he signed a letter of intent naming a Russian bank then under U.S. sanctions as part of the project.) Or, as I suspect, had he been told by Russian agents that he would be given opportunities to publicly express his positive intentions toward Russia and that if he did so, he'd be rewarded?

Regardless, Butina was arrested and pled guilty in 2018, released from prison and deported in 2019, and elected to the Russian parliament last year.

On a Russian TV program today, in response to the news that the Ukrainian government was issuing rifles to civilians, Butina complained that "people don't know how to handle them and a child might be killed at home."

As others have said, you can bet she never said anything like that when she was infiltrating the NRA!

- - - - - - - - - -
Sergey Lavrov has been Russia's foreign minister since 2004 (in the U.S., the equivalent position is Secretary of State). He was personally sanctioned by the EU and US yesterday (along with Russia's president Vladimir Putin).

Andrey Kozyrev served in that position from 1990 to 1996. Lavrov was then one of his deputies. Yesterday Kozyrev said that Lavrov "used to have my back," but now "I would watch my back if he was behind me."

Kozyrev says that Lavrov and Putin were "rightfully sanctioned".

- - - - - - - - - -
One Ukrainian outlet is reporting that three babies have been born in bomb shelters since the start of the invasion.

[N.E. Brigand]

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, says that Russia may be planning to claim that Ukraine has set off a "dirty bomb," i.e., a conventional explosive device that includes radioactive material, in Russian territory, as a pretext to escalate the invasion even further. It's not clear whether Ukraine thinks Russia would actually set off such an explosion or merely claim that it happened. There is apparent precedent for Russia to kill its own citizens to justify military action: a lot of people believe that Moscow apartment bombs that killed more than 300 people in 1999 and set off Russia's reprisal campaign in Chechnya were actually planted by people reporting to Putin, and a Russian parliamentary commission to independently investigate the bombings was blocked by Putin's government, with two of the commission's members later assassinated and a third imprisoned, and an FSB whistleblower who defected to England was killed there in 2006.

[RoseMorninStar]

In the bottom right photo with Maria Butina is Scott Walker who was then Governor of Wisconsin.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, says that Russia may be planning to claim that Ukraine has set off a "dirty bomb," i.e., a conventional explosive device that includes radioactive material, in Russian territory, as a pretext to escalate the invasion even further.

Is this why Russia took control of Chernobyl? I thought that was odd and wondered what they were up to.

Just a month after Donald Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, Butina, then posing as a journalist, attended a news conference at which she asked Trump about Russia, to which he responded by saying that if he became president, "I don't think you'd need the sanctions" that were then in place due to Russia's invasion of Crimea.

There was a lot of funny business at that news conference.. if this is the one I'm thinking of.. in Las Vegas? I believe Trump's plane went immediately into a private hangar (of Sheldon Adelson) and Oligarch (Dmitry Rybolovlev''s) plane which just happened to be there-for a very short period of time, a repeat occurrence it seems. Dmitry Rybolovlev also purchased a property from Trump at millions over what it was valued and his plane.

[N.E. Brigand]

Ukraine's defense ministry has cleverly announced that it it setting up a hotline that Russian parents of captured or killed Russian soldiers can call for more information about the well-being of their children or status of their remains.

- - - - - - - - - -
I mentioned above that Ukraine claims to have destroyed railroad lines that could be used to move troops and equipment from Russia. However, much of the country's train service remains active and in some cases is being used to transport evacuees.

That said, the Metro in Kyiv is now only functioning as a bomb shelter system, with no trains running.

- - - - - - - - - -
Some observers are noting that it took the U.S. two weeks to capture Baghdad in 2003, and that was rightly regarded as a very fast campaign. And Kyiv is a lot closer to the Russian staging point in Belarus than Baghdad was to the U.S. staging point in Kuwait. So that Kyiv remains in Ukraine's control after just three days may not be a very hopeful sign.

(On the other hand, the Iraq victory then bogged down into 15+ years of bloody occupation.)

- - - - - - - - - -
Funny quip about Zelenskyy:

"It’s like we’re watching Jon Stewart turn into Winston Churchill before our very eyes."

Although I fear that for analogies to world leaders, we may have to seek out those who were killed in battle. Not many of those in recent memory.

- - - - - - - - - -
That reminds me of a story that Tom Shippey cited in a paper about Tolkien's idea of courage. Shippey quoted General William Slim, who led various British battalions in World War II in Africa and Asia. He was wounded three time. It is said that when his aides advised him to lead from the the rear, he responded, "Nothing is so good for the morale of the troops as occasionally to see a dead general."

- - - - - - - - - -
The website for the Russian news agency TASS briefly posted, then deleted, a report saying that 3,500 Russian soldiers have been killed or captured so far in the attack.

I doubt that that anyone at TASS would have access to the actual numbers known to the Russian government, but this does roughly match what Ukrainian authorities are reporting, so whether it was a hacker or a disgruntled TASS employee who posted them, I appreciate the effort to get the information in front of a Russian audience.

- - - - - - - - - -
To be clear, this is Ukrainian military recruiting ad, i.e., a kind of propaganda, but it's still moving:



- - - - - - - - - -
Rose, my understanding is that Chernobyl is just a useful staging ground for that flank of the invasion.

[Frelga]

Zelensky, a Jewish comedian from Krivy Rig (Bent Horn), an industrial city, played a teacher who becomes the President in a comedy called Servant of the People. Today, he is giving a performance of a heroic war leader so convincing that I am frankly at a loss for a comparison to another historical figure.

To be clear, this is Ukrainian military recruiting ad, i.e., a kind of propaganda, but it's still moving:

To clarify, the video is from 2014.

Rose, my understanding is that Chernobyl is just a useful staging ground for that flank of the invasion.

That's what I understand, too. If you don't care about exposing your soldiers to radiation.

There have been reports of elevated levels of gamma radiation, which, optimistically, is caused by foot and vehicle traffic stirring up the soil.

[RoseMorninStar]

Zelensky, a Jewish comedian from Krivy Rig (Bent Horn), an industrial city, played a teacher who becomes the President in a comedy called Servant of the People. Today, he is giving a performance of a heroic war leader so convincing that I am frankly at a loss for a comparison to another historical figure.

He's been impressive. Inspiring.

[N.E. Brigand]

Rose, my understanding is that Chernobyl is just a useful staging ground for that flank of the invasion.

That's what I understand, too. If you don't care about exposing your soldiers to radiation.
There have been reports of elevated levels of gamma radiation, which, optimistically, is caused by foot and vehicle traffic stirring up the soil.

- - - - - - - - - -
Thanks for the correction regarding the Ukrainian recruitment video.

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently there's a huge push on Kyiv tonight, with heavy aerial bombardment and hundreds of tanks said to be approaching.

[RoseMorninStar]

I'm sure Putin does not take humiliation well. That's what happens when one is delusional & surrounds themselves with 'yes-men'.


The Hoan bridge in Milwaukee, WI in support of Ukrainian independence and freedom.

[Frelga]

Ukraine has waged a successful propaganda campaign. Largely plausible, occasionally verifiably accurate, and strengthened by the fact that Kremlin isn't even bothering to sound believable. But none of it can change the fact that this is a very one-sided war, and putin will not hesitate to pile up civilian casualties.

This is Very Bad.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes, it is.

[N.E. Brigand]

Europe and the U.S. are in fact moving forward with a "targeted" removal of certain Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. It's possible that this will lead to a run on Russia's banks on Monday.

- - - - - - - - - - -
Former Hawai'i Congresswoman and Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard, who in the past has often expressed (possibly undue) sympathy for the Russian government's point of view, tonight put out a video directed at Vladimir Putin telling him, "You've made your point," and urging him to end the invasion.

- - - - - - - - - -
Speaking at CPAC this evening, Donald Trump said, "We are praying for the people of Ukraine, God bless them all. They are indeed brave." And then he went on to add, "As everyone understands this horrific event would not have happened if there wasn't a rigged election and I was president."

[River]

At work yesterday we were joking that Chernobyl is the kind of place that defends itself. Maybe not right this minute, but in a couple years the leukemia will kick in and you'll have the rest of your life to regret your choices.

Zelensky, a Jewish comedian from Krivy Rig (Bent Horn), an industrial city, played a teacher who becomes the President in a comedy called Servant of the People. Today, he is giving a performance of a heroic war leader so convincing that I am frankly at a loss for a comparison to another historical figure.

There is a performance element in leadership. Maintaining calm when you're actually panicking. Pretending there's a plan B when there was barely a plan A. Etc. And successful comedians aren't idiots. Zelensky knows how to read the room and now he's got the whole world rooting for him.