The (no longer) much too early 2024 election thread

[Maria]

Awwwww.... I just found out I don't get to crash the Republican primary this year. Missouri has always allowed anyone to vote in either party primary, regardless of whether or not you are actually in that party. I don't get to do that this year, they've decided to caucus instead- and in order to participate one has to swear loyalty to the Republican party.

So, that's it for me. No more trying to nominate whoever I deem least electable. *pout*

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I've said previously that I thought that the SCOTUS would rule for Trump in this case, and then against Trump in the immunity case. I still believe that. The only question in my mind is how quickly they will rule in the immunity case (and whether it will come by simply refusing to review the DC Circuit decision or by affirming it upon review).

Not surprisingly, I am not the only one who thinks this.

[N.E. Brigand]

What Rick Hasen is saying is that the Court is a political body which realizes it needs to forestall a political catastrophe down the road.

This is true. I just wish the justices would actually admit it.

[N.E. Brigand]

As today's news reminds us, the justice system cannot be relied upon to save us from disaster. The only sure way to keep Donald Trump from becoming the United States' first dictator is to vote for Joe Biden and otherwise support his candidacy. Accordingly, I just made my first political donation of the 2024 election.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

If the United States elects Donald Trump president with all that is known, the United States will get what it deserves (even with the flawed electoral system).

[N.E. Brigand]

As today's news reminds us, the justice system cannot be relied upon to save us from disaster. The only sure way to keep Donald Trump from becoming the United States' first dictator is to vote for Joe Biden and otherwise support his candidacy. Accordingly, I just made my first political donation of the 2024 election.

If the United States elects Donald Trump president with all that is known, the United States will get what it deserves (even with the flawed electoral system).

Yes, it's up to us to prove that we deserve better.

That said, I have repeatedly found that what is "known" varies widely!

[N.E. Brigand]

Donald Trump today said of the events of January 6th: "I think it was an insurrection."

Now it's true he went on to say "...caused by Nancy Pelosi."

Nonethless, that statement has to foreclose any attempt by the Supreme Court to claim that it was not an insurrection, doesn't it?

Both sides of the case have now said that Jan. 6th was an insurrection.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That is not what the Supreme Court will say.

[N.E. Brigand]

Fox News host Jesse Watters just said that Joe Biden is "not capable of engaging articulately with the American press corps." And then Watters said, "South Carolina governor Kristi Noem joins us right now."

Edited to add: Noem is the governor of South Dakota. South Carolina's governor is Henry McMaster. The two states' capitals are 1,500 miles apart.

[N.E. Brigand]

Nevada has both a primary for both parties (yesterday) and a caucus for Republicans (tomorrow).

President Biden won the Democratic primary last night with 89.4% of the vote. In second place was "none of these candidates" with 5.7%. Marianne Williamson rounded out the top three with 2.8%. I don't believe Dean Phillips participated.

Donald Trump was not on the Republican ballot, but Nikki Halley finished second anyway, with 33.7%. The winner was "none of these candidates" with 60%.

I laughed at this: "A lot of people talking $%@# about Nikki Haley losing to no one like the same dude didn't blind a cyclops."

Donald Trump won the Republican caucuses in the U.S. Virgin Islands yesterday, defeating Nikki Haley 76% - 26%.

Although the territory's population is 87,000, fewer than 500 people participated in this event, perhaps because its residents do not vote in the general election.

- - - - - - - - - -
Reversing Tuesday's events, Nikki Haley opted out of the Nevada caucuses, which Donald Trump won with 99% of the vote.

Here are the candidates' results (with 1,000 or more votes) across this year's Nevada Democratic primary, Republican primary, and Republican caucus:

112,611 -- Joe Biden (D)
59,545 -- Donald Trump (R - caucus)
47,077 -- None of These Candidates (R - primary)
22,611 -- Nikki Haley (R - primary)
7,017 -- None of These Candidate (D)
3,714 -- Marianne Williamson (D)
2,895 -- Mike Pence (R - primary)
1,014 -- Tim Scott (R - primary

I don't know if it's more notable that there were 135,000 Republican voters vs. 125,000 Democratic voters or that Biden got almost twice as many votes as Trump.

[N.E. Brigand]

Lots of voter analysis here: "For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election."

[N.E. Brigand]

A story in The Atlantic is being promoted with this pull quote:

"I have been wondering for months when Joe Biden’s age would become a thing. Biden is older than the hovercraft, the barcode, and the Breathalyzer."

Yes, but I hope the story itself acknowledges another point:

1942 -- Joe Biden
1946 -- Donald Trump
1954 -- breathalyzer
1959 -- hovercraft
1967 -- barcode

[N.E. Brigand]

Do Republican audiences really buy it when Donald Trump Jr. differentiates himself from Hunter Biden like this?



"Luckily I don't snort all--uh, cocaine, like it's not my thing."

"All" what now?

[N.E. Brigand]

A economics reporter at the New York Times, that supposed bastion of liberalism, noted yesterday that friends at a dinner party were unaware of one of President Biden's signature accomplishments, the CHIPS and Science Act, which was signed into law in August 2022. It turns out that, despite being very active on social media, the reporter has only mentioned the act twice, including this time. When people pointed this out, he said he's "not their PR man" and complains that Biden hasn't done enough press conferences.

And no doubt the Biden administration should do more. But telling the public about things like this is a reporter's job. Anyway, from the first link (Wikipedia):

The CHIPS and Science Act ... authorizes roughly $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States, for which it appropriates $52.7 billion. The act includes $39 billion in subsidies for chip manufacturing on U.S. soil along with 25% investment tax credits for costs of manufacturing equipment, and $13 billion for semiconductor research and workforce training, with the dual aim of strengthening American supply chain resilience and countering China. It also invests $174 billion in the overall ecosystem of public sector research in science and technology, including in NASA, the DOE, and NIST.

[N.E. Brigand]

Donald Trump today mocked Nikki Haley because her husband hasn't appeared at many campaign events with her.

Haley's husband is a military reservist currently stationed overseas.

- - - - - - - - -
At a rally today, Donald Trump pointed to Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was in the crowd, and called him "Rick Gates."

Rick Gates was the Trump campaign associate who pled guilty to making false statements in the Trump-Russia investigation.

[N.E. Brigand]

1. Friday night, Donald Trump said at a rally that if he wasn't there he'd be having a pleasant Saturday afternoon.
One of the standard questions on the cognitive test which Trump has claimed to twice passed is to say what day it is.

2. Watch here as Trump stumbles in a different speech today: "And we have all brand new F-35s now, and the greatest, we have the greatest, FFFFFF--the greatest military, we really do." Not a huge mistake. Weird mostly. But sauce for the goose, as the saying goes.

3. Trump today said of his previous two campaigns that "We have to run the East Coast like I did twice. I did twice. I did better the second time. But we have to run the East Coast." If he's talking about the general election, that's entirely wrong. He won just four of the fourteen East Coast states in 2016, and he did worse in 2020 (because Joe Biden added Georgia to the states Hillary Clinton had won). If he's talking about the Republican primaries, he did do better in 2020 than in 2016, because he was incumbent president and had only token opposition from one other candidate (Bill Weld), and he actually won in every state, so it would be weird to call out an East Coast streak. But also, he didn't run the East Coast primaries in 2016: Ted Cruz won Maine.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Guardian: "Erik Prince Calls for U.S. to Colonize Africa and Latin America."

Prince is a military contractor and sometime Trump advisor (and the brother of Trump's Education Secretary Betsy DeVos).

[N.E. Brigand]

American Values 2024, a political action committee supporting the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., aired an ad during the Super Bowl for which RFK Jr. is now apologizing (if it "caused anyone in my family pain") -- and yet it's still pinned to his social media profiles.

The ad is a 1960 John F. Kennedy commercial with RFK Jr's face superimposed where JFK's face had been at the time.

Edited to add this reminder that JFK, unlike his nephew, was very much in favor of mass vaccination.
(I didn't know that polio, like the flu, had a "season.")

- - - - - - - - - -
Mocking conspiracy theories about the big game, Joe Biden tweeted this after it was over:



That seems to be a follow-up to this affable TikTok video the campaign posted before the game (having just joined that platform).

(President Biden also tweeted congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs from his official account.)

I like this response: "The real psyop was getting MAGA to root for San Francisco."

[RoseMorninStar]

That's pretty despicable of Kennedy, given that his views are so different from JFK.

[N.E. Brigand]

A economics reporter at the New York Times, that supposed bastion of liberalism, noted yesterday that friends at a dinner party were unaware of one of President Biden's signature accomplishments, the CHIPS and Science Act, which was signed into law in August 2022. It turns out that, despite being very active on social media, the reporter has only mentioned the act twice, including this time. When people pointed this out, he said he's "not their PR man" and complains that Biden hasn't done enough press conferences.* And no doubt the Biden administration should do more. But telling the public about things like this is a reporter's job. Anyway, from the first link (Wikipedia):

The CHIPS and Science Act ... authorizes roughly $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States, for which it appropriates $52.7 billion. The act includes $39 billion in subsidies for chip manufacturing on U.S. soil along with 25% investment tax credits for costs of manufacturing equipment, and $13 billion for semiconductor research and workforce training, with the dual aim of strengthening American supply chain resilience and countering China. It also invests $174 billion in the overall ecosystem of public sector research in science and technology, including in NASA, the DOE, and NIST.

*White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre takes questions from reporters almost every weekday. It's reporters who choose whether or not to ask her for updates on how the CHIPS Act has been rolling out or whether they should instead use that time to ask her if President Biden will be inviting Taylor Swift to the White House.