Swine flu

Post by **WampusCat** » Sat May 02, 2009 5:20 am

Yep, Joe has apparently already caught the dread Foot In Mouth Disease.

Sat May 02, 2009 9:42 pm

Of course that was a joke. I thought it was quite clever, and funny. Had a good mix of zombie-fiction, and real life to "get people". The link at the top is a dead giveaway that it is fake. The BBC would not have a url without bbc.co.uk in it.

In the case of swine flu, there is too much information traveling too fast. On CNN.com the WHO reports 658 confirmed cases of swine flu, but many of these case (the bulk) are from backlogged specimens, so it isn't a large increase of new cases. Unfortunately, with the speed at which information travels today, panic, and misinformation gets spread too quickly. Yesterday, some lady at my job said "you can catch it by walking past someone with it." I had to stop her to inform her that that is not how influenza spreads... you need longer exposure than just passing by.

Post by **elfshadow** » Sat May 02, 2009 10:27 pm

Honestly, this hysteria is getting ridiculous. Front page on CNN today...emergency rooms are having to turn ambulances away because there are so many people around who have "swine flu".

Now, it's not unusual for ERs to close when they are very busy--it's called being on divert. But in this case, the majority of people presenting with flu-like symptoms either a) have a mild case of the flu, b) have a cold, or c) are perfectly fine. I'm willing to be that a lot of these people don't have insurance either (people who use ERs for mild illnesses often don't have primary care physicians) meaning that the hospital is picking up a good chunk of the bill. It's putting a huge drain on the system.

Now, I understand that people should take basic precautions as they would against any sort of flu. I also understand that the greatest concern about swine flu is that it might present similarly to the 1918 pandemic--people are afraid that the virus will mutate and come back as a deadly strain in a few months. If that's the case, though, why wouldn't people rather get it now than get it if/when it becomes deadly?

In the case of the 1918 flu, those who got the bug the first time around were basically immune when the deadly mutation came back. I know very little about epidemiology so I could be way off. But, apart from working to develop a vaccine in case of a mutation, I see no reason why this should be treated differently from any other form of the flu.

Post by **River** » Sat May 02, 2009 11:05 pm

elsha, it shouldn't be treated any differently. It's just new. And that makes it scary.

Rochester is right across the lake from Toronto. When SARS was the subject of panic, we were ordered to wear HEPA masks for all respiratory distress calls, even though there were no reported cases of SARS in the area. But we were right across the lake from Toronto. And people were dying of SARS. Never mind the mortality rate for SARS was far lower than the mortality rate for the flu...

We thought it was lame, but orders is orders and HEPA masks suck.

Post by **elfshadow** » Sun May 03, 2009 3:14 am

Yep, we have to do the same thing. We're supposed to wear the HEPA respirators for all patients with flu-like symptoms. I had to get fitted for one last night before I could ride my shift. They fit the masks by putting it around your face and then spraying this terrible-tasting mist all around your face to make sure that none gets in the mask. And, of course, it did get in because they only gave us one size mask and I know I am smaller than a size regular.

Post by **River** » Sun May 03, 2009 4:51 am

Frakkin' panic button. That should just be removed from the system. This is one of the things I DON'T miss about the EMS.

It's a flu. It's killing people at, if anything, a lower rate than the ordinary flu. It's not TB. And it's not going to make anyone feel less scared if the EMTs are showing up in the big bad HEPA masks. And yeah, I know, EMTs are supposed to get a flu shot to protect us from the predicted flu but guess what. Our patients, the ones we're taking in with the flu? The elderly ones with the history of lung troubles? They had the shot too...and got the flu and now they're coughing on the EMT taking care of them.

Post by **anthriel** » Sun May 03, 2009 3:12 pm

This is an interesting story. I was but a wee lass in 1976 when swine flu came around before, and whilst pondering why this variant has caused such consternation, I theorized that it was perhaps because people had been sensitized way back when to the "swine flu" equals "deadly".

Even though this strain is not the same as that one was, I can imagine that a flu which had killed lots of people would scare people if they thought it was coming back.

Here's what Ron Paul remembers from that time, though: "Twenty-five people died from the inoculation while one person was killed by the flu", Paul said, adding that he voted against inoculation.

Hmmm. Talk about the cure being worse than the disease...

Here, Canadian farmer possibly infects his pigs with H1N1. That's sad!

Sun May 03, 2009 3:34 pm

One of the tragedies of the 76 Swine Flu pandemic was that a large number of people developed Gillain-Barre Syndrome from the innoculations. Gillain-Barre is a syndrome that causes paralysis. According to this article, incidents of occurrences following flu shots have discreased since then, but that is perhaps because there hasn't been a hysteria like this since then.

Post by **vison** » Sun May 03, 2009 4:54 pm

This is one of those times when the health authorities can't win. If they don't react and react quickly and strongly, they will be crucified for any bad outcomes. If they "overreact", as appears to be the case this time, they get criticized for that.

Our public health systems in Canada and the US are pretty good. I think most of the people in the systems really do care about "public health".

OTOH, I have several friends who are nurses and who laugh hysterically at the thought of "the hospitals" being "ready" for a real pandemic. And these nurses are on both sides of the 49th parallel.

Post by **Frelga** » Mon May 04, 2009 8:14 am

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/swine_flu.png

Post by **Dave_LF** » Mon May 04, 2009 3:24 pm

Anthriel wrote:Here's what Ron Paul remembers from that time, though: "Twenty-five people died from the inoculation while one person was killed by the flu", Paul said, adding that he voted against inoculation.

You would expect those sorts of numbers both from a worthless vaccine and from a highly effective one.

Post by **anthriel** » Mon May 04, 2009 10:47 pm

Dave_LF wrote:
Anthriel wrote:Here's what Ron Paul remembers from that time, though: "Twenty-five people died from the inoculation while one person was killed by the flu", Paul said, adding that he voted against inoculation.
You would expect those sorts of numbers both from a worthless vaccine and from a highly effective one.

Good point.

It probably wasn't worthless. But it may have been overkill (literally).

vison is right, though. The response has to be huge, when the impact of the disease is unknown. The response/preparedness can be ramped down when the impact of the disease is more understood and is not as great as it could have been. For some things, only time will tell, AND hindsight is 20/20.

After hurricane Katrina and the federal government's blantant lack of preparation for an emergency like that, it is refreshing, really, to see our processes move ahead of the possible cataclysm, instead of flailing helplessly in its aftermath.

However, I remain a bit bewildered with this whole swine flu issue. It is confusing when there are so many variants of flu out there, and so many of them are deadly. This one, this particular variant, has been made to be appear quite different from what it actually seems to be.

What has chafed me this whole time is how people have been manipulated to fear this particular strain so thoroughly. It is not the health officials who are doing that.

Post by **Crucifer** » Mon May 04, 2009 11:18 pm

I reckon this graph pretty accurately sums up Swine flu...

Post by **River** » Tue May 05, 2009 4:56 am

Three students at my university are waiting for final confirmation that they have TypeA/H1N1. One lives on campus and has decided to quarantine themself. This was not advised, or even required, but the student apparently thought it was the best thing to do. How one can manage an effective quarantine in the dorms is a mystery but the university says they're doing a good job.

Finals and commencement activities are still on. But the Midnight Breakfast got canned and the administration is asking departments to think real hard about discretionary gatherings.

All in all, CU is being pretty sane about this. I'm impressed.

Post by **anthriel** » Tue May 05, 2009 2:55 pm

Crucifer, that appeals to my cynical side quite nicely.

River, I don't think anyone can quarantine themselves in a dorm. But I suppose it doesn't hurt to try, and not being in the lunch line coughing on everyone is a major plus.

Tue May 05, 2009 3:27 pm

You have a cynical side?

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Tue May 05, 2009 3:51 pm

There are now two confirmed cases in children in Eugene, and two suspected cases, so four schools are closed today. :| I'm hoping the virus continues to behave mildly and that in time it seems possible to respond safely without shutting down whole school communities. With kids at this time of year, in addition to the missed school days that would mean canceling proms, graduations, and concerts and plays that kids have been rehearsing hard for since winter.

Post by **WampusCat** » Tue May 05, 2009 6:35 pm

The CDC is reconsidering its advice to close schools and is leaning toward saying that only sick kids ought to stay home.

Post by **Frelga** » Tue May 05, 2009 6:42 pm

Meanwhile, an elementary school in Berkeley is closed for a week. The confirmed case is a parent, who has recovered, and the kids show some flu symptoms.

On the one hand, it's just a flu, at this point, so why the nuclear option? What are the parents supposed to do, for a week? On the other, I really can't afford to take any time off now for flu, swine or not.

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Tue May 05, 2009 6:53 pm

I think it's reasonable caution, not being quick to abandon protective policies. But it seems clear which way things are going. By next week they won't be closing schools any more.