Cerin wrote:The Supreme Court has ruled 5-3 that ballots in Wisconsin must be in by election day, not six days after. Presumably, the principle will hold across the board when the other state cases reach the court. I'm tremendously relieved by this, because having ballots come in for days would have guaranteed no result on election night, and now I have hope that we may have a result that night or next day.
Well, you can go on worrying, because the court ruled today North Carolina can count ballots up to 9 days after election day, so long as they are postmarked by election day.
Interestingly, the vote apparently was 5-3, with Kavanaugh joining Roberts and the more liberal justices, and Barratt not taking part because she did not have sufficient time to review the briefs. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/supreme- ... b57a0f2436
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
"That's why they're talking about the 25th amendment, right? Three weeks. Three weeks in, Joe's shot, 'Let's go Kamala, are you get ready?' Most liberal person in the Senate."
Some thought Trump was floating the idea that Biden would be assassinated. He is constantly inciting violence. This is so irresponsible and pathetic.
x-posted with V. We've had other elections where there was not a clear winner on election night, especially before there were electronic machines. Overseas & military votes often get counted late/postmarked by election but not received by the election. Of course, sometimes it doesn't matter due to the electoral college, but as someone mentioned earlier, it may matter to down ballot races.
November 3rd is the "day we vote." I see absolutely no reason to expect an outcome on that day, not until every valid vote has been counted. Since the actual vote that counts for president doesn't happen until December 14, when the Electoral College meets. Until then, there is no official winner of the presidential election anyway.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
Dave_LF wrote:Dare I ask why they feel differently about NC (edit: and, apparently, PA) than WI?
I actually did hear about why, I don't have the nuances but it was something to do with state vs federal power... or changing vs. keeping existing law (or maybe it was one of each?) Something like that. It was either to do with the state being the authority in one vs the federal trying to impose an authority, or it had to do with whether the law was being asked to stay the same or asked to change. I can't say I necessarily agree with the outcome but I at least admire there was a consistency and logic to their reasoning.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
elengil wrote:November 3rd is the "day we vote." I see absolutely no reason to expect an outcome on that day, not until every valid vote has been counted. Since the actual vote that counts for president doesn't happen until December 14, when the Electoral College meets. Until then, there is no official winner of the presidential election anyway.
I agree with this 100%.
Dave_LF wrote:Dare I ask why they feel differently about NC (edit: and, apparently, PA) than WI?
What elengil said but also it seems some stonewalling went on in WI. The Republican controlled legislature hasn't met since April 15. It is the least active (ie: 'do nothing') legislature in the country, at least this year. If I were to take an educated guess, it's because we have a democratic governor so the republican legislature wants to make sure nothing gets done. It also seems Kavenaugh knows this. 'Leave it up to the states'. pfft.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
We spend a lot of time in this thread talking about a narrowing of the race before the election and a polling error favouring President Trump. But it's also possible that support for Trump will collapse in the same way support for Jimmy Carter did in the final weeks of the 1980 campaign, and/or there will be a polling error favouring Biden, as there was one which favoured President Obama in 2012. And if we get a Biden landslide, it's likely Biden will either win or come close to winning one or more states which have attracted little attention and seen little polling. For a candidate of a state to watch on election night if Biden does seem to be cleaning up, I would like to nominate one of my favourite states - Montana. It has patchy polling, but the most recent poll puts Biden only two points behind Trump.
That article doesn't even mention that Kavanaugh mistakenly used Vermont as an example of a state that did not change its election rules to accommodate the pandemic, which got called out by the Vermont Secretary of State and resulted in Kavanaugh having to put out a revised opinion.
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"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
RoseMorninStar wrote:
Some thought Trump was floating the idea that Biden would be assassinated. He is constantly inciting violence. This is so irresponsible and pathetic.
Of course, Trump supporters said he meant 'shot' as in not able to function anymore, due to age and infirmity.
Then I found THIS from the 2016 election: Donald Trump hints at assassination of Hillary Clinton by gun rights supporters
The volatile Republican nominee was speaking at a rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, about the next president’s power to appoint supreme court justices. “Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish, the second amendment,” said Trump, eliciting boos from the crowd.
“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the second amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.”
When the night has been too lonely, and the road has been too long,
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
If the tie moves to Biden's favor, or he otherwise gets to 90%, they will move it from "Biden is Favored" to "Biden is Clearly Favored."
ETA: Alas, the tie moved to Trump, so it is currently 89-11. In comparison, five days before the election in 2016, it was 66.2% to 33.8%.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
And this brings us to one potential worry about a big blue shift, especially if the election is close: Trump could try to declare victory based on initial returns, as he’s claimed the result should be known on election night. Now, declaring victory doesn’t really amount to much, as it has no legal bearing. But doing so could help cast doubt on the results, especially if there is a subsequent shift toward Biden that’s accompanied by false claims of voting fraud, such as the ones the president has made numerous times already. Experts from organizations such as the Transition Integrity Project have even expressed concern that, in such a scenario, Trump could try to figure out ways to interfere with post-Election Day counting to stop a potential blue shift.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
If Florida clearly goes for Biden on election night, people hoping that he will win should be able to sleep well that night. We should also have a decent idea of what is likely to happen in most of the rest of the potential swing states including Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Minnesota (though I don't really think that is a big question mark), Georgia, Iowa and Texas, unless they are very close (which many of them might be). The biggest wild cards are Pennsylvania and Nevada.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
I honest to god wish that there was no election night reporting whatsoever. Wait until all the states have certified their numbers, then have them released officially. The whole spectacle of it makes me cringe.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
