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How do you feel about rock concerts to help fight poverty?

Great idea! This way, more people will become interested in the topic.
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33%
It might get people in the mood to donate money, so it's better than nothing.
0
No votes
It gets everybody in a good mood and in the right spirit.
0
No votes
I have my doubts. What use can it be to get people rocking?
1
33%
Utter rubbish. Apparently, people can't even think about world poverty without being entertained, these days.
1
33%
 
Total votes: 3

Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

I wouldn't dream of demolishing your post, Lord M. :D

Actually I do agree with most of that, though I do come at this from a slightly different perspective because I more familiar with things like the failure of banking systems than with the succession of civil wars in so many former colonies.

It has always been of interest to me to try to tease out the failures that are due to productivity from failures that are due to the system of resource distribution. Two contrasting examples: Nigeria and Tanzania.

Something like 50% of the farmland in Nigeria remains owned by British nationals, and they are using it to produce for export to Great Britain and the rest of the world. They are also expatriating their profits from Nigeria and spending them in other places around the world. So in a very real sense, all that land resource is not part of the Nigeria market at all. It is part of some other market. The failure of Nigeria to develop a flourishing internal economy is therefore due in large measure to its resource distribution.

In Tanzania, by contrast, Nyere instituted a land reform that expropriated British land holdings and retitled them as cooperative farms. But the farms continued to produce for export, and they grew the same crop that the British had been growing: coffee. The farms failed miserably, and it is generally blamed on the cooperative system that Nyere established, but what few people realize is that the farms had never been successful. When they were owned by Brits they were heavily subsidized by the British government. Coffee can not in fact be grown productively and profitably in Tanzania. The failure was due not to the system of resource distribution but to the productivity of that particular land in that particular use.

Countries that accepted World Bank loans in the 1950s were forced to develop their manufacturing sectors when most of them needed to develop their agricultural sector and their banking systems. Economists are to blame for the failure of all those manufacturing ventures to add value to their economies because we were working from flawed theories of development.

So I think that in every country you look at, you see a little bit different picture. But corruption and instability are endemic in the third world, and those things have to be corrected first before any strides can be made economically.

Cuba is ridiculed in the United States, but the income disparity is much less there than in countries that have followed the US model and allowed their credit resources to be furnished by the US. We hear all the time how much wealthier the upper class of Honduras is compared to the upper class of Cuba, but it is also true (though rarely published here) that the lower class of Cuba is much wealthier than the lower class of Honduras. Which of these models one thinks is better depends partly on ideology, but also partly on how one believes that countries bootstrap up to developed status. And as long as military solutions are being imposed from without to create particular outcomes, it is hard to get good data on how the system of resource distribution is affecting the productivity.

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Post by axordil »

Could one difference between the SE Asian successes and the African failures, in terms of post-colonial stability, be partially due to past economic history? SE Asia, IIRC, has a longer history of mercantile development/exploitation, which would seem to me more a framework to build stable financial institutions on than purely resource-based economies.
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Post by solicitr »

Also, I must say I have no clue what you mean by "political show-trials of US officials".
The Federal Prosecutor in Karlruhe has filed chrges of war crimes aginst Donald Rumsfeld, Alberto Gonzales and several others.

On what conceivable jurisdiction this is based I don't know. To be frank, I'm not aware what Germany has done to earn the right to sit in judgment on anybody.
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Post by solicitr »

Ax,

A great deal of it has to do with the fact that many Asian countries had long histories of settled societies, with the foundations of civil service, jurisprudence, literacy and so forth. The real fault of the West in the crumbling parts of the developing world doesn't lie with Evil Corporate Exploitation or "forcing economic models on them that destroy their indigenous economic systems" (meaning subsistence farming): the problem was that in the 1950's and 60's the colonial powers were so despearately eager to get rid of the moral oppobrium associated with possessing colonies that they cast off said colonies long before they had developed sufficient civic structures to be able to fend for themselves. As a result what we see in far too many cases is corrupt, thuggish kleptocracies, without any real interest in physical or governmental infrastructure.

It's really rather absurd to blame Shell for Nigeria's problems- Shell's own contracts restate the Nigerian government's Constitutional obligation to redistribute oil revenues to the provinces. The Wicked Oil Companies can't prevent that money from going instead to government ministers' Swiss bank accounts.




"Cuba is ridiculed in the United States, but the income disparity is much less there than in countries that have followed the US model"

Yep- everybody has nothing. Cuba had vastly greater income disparity in 1959- and was also the richest nation per capita in the Caribbean. Under Castro it has dropped to the next-to-bottom position, just above Haiti. "Income disparity" is just a code word behind which lurks plain old class envy, and the silly Marxist notion that you can improve the lot of the poor by killing off the rich.

Stay tuned- Hugo Chavez is giving a real-time tutorial in "How to Destroy a Prosperous Economy the Castro Way."
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Post by Túrin Turambar »

axordil wrote:Could one difference between the SE Asian successes and the African failures, in terms of post-colonial stability, be partially due to past economic history? SE Asia, IIRC, has a longer history of mercantile development/exploitation, which would seem to me more a framework to build stable financial institutions on than purely resource-based economies.
Not too different from Africa in many ways, though. Remember that Malaysia’s per capita GDP in 1950 was the same as the Congo’s (or Zaire, as it was called in those days). All these countries had some trade and manufacturing, but were mostly based in subsistence agriculture. The advantage the Asian nations had was stability, peace and not needing to deal with the AIDS epidemic (Botswana, for example, despite its many other successes, is suffering terribly from AIDS).

Keep in mind also that Africa has many more natural resources than the Asian Tigers.
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Post by Jnyusa »

solicitr wrote:It's really rather absurd to blame Shell for Nigeria's problems-
Did I mention Shell? I think you might be arguing with someone who isn't here.
Yep- everybody has nothing.
What part of Cuba were you visiting or studying where everybody had nothing?
Under Castro it has dropped to the next-to-bottom position, just above Haiti.
This is one of those statistics trotted out by Ministry of Truth (a.k.a. International Monetary Fund) because in 1930 Simon Kuznets told the world it was a relevant statistic, but which has no bearing on the real-life problems of development. One of my colleagues just got back from four months in Cuba, and I have watched their economy casually for ten years now. I can assure you that 95% of their population has more than they had in 1959 or any year since then. The fact that p.c.i. is among the lowest in Latin America only goes to prove just how poor they really were before Castro.

Don't get me wrong - the Castro system is not something I would personally promote, and right at this moment, I am told, the incomes in the city have risen sufficiently high above those in the countryside that an unhelpful level of transmigration is taking place. Cuba would benefit from some market forces that allow the rural wages to rise ... but that's neither here nor there because there is no country in Latin America where market forces are allowed to operate right now.

Imagine that you have a country with 10 people in it. The total annual income for the country (measured by GDP, let's say) is $1M. The incomes of these ten people are:

$160K .....$105K
$140K.....$100K
$130K.....$85K
$120K.....$40K
$115K.....$5K

Average income is $100,000. In this case, the average looks pretty representative. There are people with lower income, but the median is pretty close to the average, and if you wanted to measure things that would be 'typical' of a person with average income, you would capture quite a large chunk of that population.

Now consider a different population ... and I have invented these numbers based on actual percentages reported by the World Bank for Latin America:

$800K .....$5K
$100K.....$5K
$15K.....$5K
$15K.....$5K
$5K.....$5K

Average income is still $100,000, but in this situation the average does not describe anyone in the economy, neither rich nor poor. It is a useless statistic.

Along comes a Castro, and the wealthiest 5% run away to Florida. Their money goes with them because it was never banked in Cuba; it's waiting for them in the US where it has always been. Now we have a population with 9.5 people in it, and subsequent to the redistribution of the only significant resource in Cuba (land), coupled with the loss of its major export market and an embargo by all the western banks, we have an income situation that looks like this (let's crib the numbers to 9 people so that it will be easy to represent):

gone .....$8K
$30K.....$8K
$22K.....$8K
$20K.....$8K
$8K.....$8K

Holy cow! Average income has dropped to ~$13,300 from $100,000! Disaster! But 90% of the people are better off than they were before.

Why isn't the original $1M redistributed? Because that $1M depended upon export markets and credit services which have now been withdrawn. If there is one huge naivete among neo-Marxians, it is that this withdrawel from the international financial markets will not represent a huge punch in the gut.

The issue is not class envy. The real issue in country development has to do with internal savings rates and capital flight, and the little bit of social experiment that we've been given to study so far does indicate that income disparity absolutely prevents development and ultimately fosters revolution ... or, as we see the form being taken now ... it fosters terrorism, the so-called "imbalance justified offense."

Nicaragua is instructive in this regard, because their revolution made a serious effort to bring banking systems into the countryside, and in my opinion this is THE key to development. For the three years following the creation of El Banco de Desarollo Campesino, Nicaragua had the highest productivity and the lowest inflation in Latin America. (Not reported by the IMF because the US vetoed all IBRD and IMF assitance.) In 1990, one of the first acts by the Chamorro administration was to shut down the BDC, eliminate the government office that was analyzing savings rates and interest rates, and convert Nicaragua's money' supply to a US dollar base. Within three months they had the lowest productivity and the highest inflation on the mainland and the isthmus. Three months! I couldn't believe it myself, to tell you the truth, that a monetary system would make that much difference, but it did. They went from 23% inflation per year in the last year of the Ortega administration ('89), to 1000% per year in the first four months of the Chamorro administration. Employment on the East coast went from 85% to 15% - a perfect reversal of unemployment figures. Median income was cut to one third of what it had been during the 1980s.

These may be ideological questions for people on the right and on the left, but for the people who have to actually live in these countries they are questions of survival. We owe them more (by virtue of the fact that we are all the same species) than yellow-press labels.

Jn
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Post by truehobbit »

solicitr wrote:
Also, I must say I have no clue what you mean by "political show-trials of US officials".
The Federal Prosecutor in Karlruhe has filed chrges of war crimes aginst Donald Rumsfeld, Alberto Gonzales and several others.

On what conceivable jurisdiction this is based I don't know.
I hadn't even heard of this, so I looked it up. (So much for 'show trial'.)
You know, I'm still wondering where you get the 'information' that goes into your posts.

What happened, as far as some brief googling was able to elucidate, is this:
For a few years now, some former inmates of Guantamo prison have tried to sue Rumsfeld and other military commanders for torture. A first attempt from an American group of human rights activists to file charges against Rumsfeld in Karlsruhe (Germany's highest law court) failed, as did attempts to file charges in the US.
Another suit was filed in November last year, by a German lawyer, on behalf of several dozen organisations and individuals.
These charges were also refused about six weeks ago.

The reasons on which the US courts refused to accept the case was that the plaintiffs had not lived in the US.
I'm afraid I didn't find anything on why the case was refused by the German law court.

The reason international human rights groups turned to Germany is because all countries that accept the jurisdiction of the Den Haag law court also accept something they call "universal jurisdiction", which means that these countries have agreed that in cases of war crimes, each country has jurisdiction over any war criminal.
The US of course don't acknowledge the jurisdiction of Den Haag, and they have refused to try Rumsfeld & co. for war crimes in his own country. It is therefore, according to international law, possible to try to have these alleged crimes tried elsewhere.

I'm sorry if this isn't explained very well, I know about as much about law as I do about relativity theory.
However, given that you seem to be a solicitor, I should have expected you to have some slightly more precise knowledge about these legal matters than you have shown here.
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Post by solicitr »

The US of course don't acknowledge the jurisdiction of Den Haag, and they have refused to try Rumsfeld & co. for war crimes in his own country. It is therefore, according to international law, possible to try to have these alleged crimes tried elsewhere.
Again, political show trials. What better way to express policy differences than to try the other nation's officials in your own courts as 'war criminals'? (yes, that was sarcasm). I'm glad to learn the German High Court refused to entertain these charges. But if what you say is true, we can expect this to be forum-shopped around thru our 'friends and allies' until a sympathetic court accepts it. I imagine the French would.

This is precisely why the US did not join the Hague treaty.




I sincerely wish our NATO allies put as much effort into prosecuting terrorists, even though they're plainly much less vile than American cabinet secretaries, who apparently are on a par with Milosevic and Pinochet.


BTW: my field of practice doesn't include international criminal law. I was truly unaware that 'universal jurisdiction' existed in any area except piracy- although it might not be a bad idea to formulate a legal framework for prosecuting terrorists based on the International Convention on Piracy (in its essentials almost 300 years old).
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Post by Jnyusa »

solicitr wrote:This is precisely why the US did not join the Hague treaty.
Actually, the reason stated publicly for our refusal to sign the treaty was because we did not wish to be sued by the 100 countries in which we have a current military presence; and they could all sue us, and probably would, if we were a signatory.

When the US declined to sign the Hague treaty, Clinton was President (iirc) and there was no thought at that point in time that a US administration would ever be accused of war crimes as such. Though we were sued by Nicaragua during the Ortega Administration and they were awarded damaged for the mining of the Corinth harbor.

Here's an interesting question (in my mind) which I ask my students to consider about that particular case. When Violetta Chamorro was elected President she voluntarily forewent the ICJ damages awarded to Nicaragua in exchange for promises of aid that were not, in fact, forthcoming. ($3 million wa paid against a promise of $40 million, in exchange for vacating a $17 million court award, iirc.) The question is this: in a democracy, does one administration have the power to vacate awards granted under a different administration on behalf of all the people? To whom is the award made? To the administration or to the people?

I think that we have no legal precedent for deciding this kind of question, but decisions about jurisdiction and representation become ever more important as global institutions like the ICJ and the WTO make binding decisions that affect whole countries.

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Post by solicitr »

When the US declined to sign the Hague treaty, Clinton was President (iirc) and there was no thought at that point in time that a US administration would ever be accused of war crimes as such.
Oh yes there was, and it was much discussed at the time. The fear was precisely that American officials or servicemen could be hauled into court anywhere in the world by anybody who had a beef against us- and when you're the 'sole remaining superpower' somebody always has a beef. The Nicaragua case is instructive- is it even remotely sane to offer up one's policy decisions to that tribe of jackals which we know better than any other society- lawyers? No President, including Clinton, would accept having his hands tied by requiring a Security Council "Simon says" before every military action. It was Clinton also who made the (effectively) unilateral decision to intervene in Yugoslavia- for which he was of course called a 'war criminal' by the other side.
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Post by Jnyusa »

solicitr wrote: ... is it even remotely sane to offer up one's policy decisions to that tribe of jackals which we know better than any other society- lawyers?
Specifically, plaintiff's attorneys... right? And yet, is there any legal system anywhere that can exist without this function? Isn't that the basis of all parity, even in our own legal system - that one can bring suit to redress damages?

Agreed that this can be carried too far - witness the litigiousness within the US; but on what other basis would one govern a community, except by enforcement of its laws?
Oh yes there was, and it was much discussed at the time. The fear was precisely that American officials or servicemen could be hauled into court anywhere in the world by anybody who had a beef against us ...
Well, the real fear underlying this is that the plaintiffs would have a genuine claim. You brought the example of Yugoslavia: in the end it was Milosovic who stood trial for war crimes and not Clinton.

To unilaterally mine the harbor of Nicaragua when no state of war existed was a violation of international treaty, and the US was justly (imo) fined for this. If the US were brought to trial for "shock and awe" against Iraq, I honestly don't know what the outcome would be. Presumably US attorneys would make their best case that Iraq had participated in the aggression of 9/11, or that the administration honestly thought so. It is not clear at all to me that the US would not be exonerated, much as I oppose the war on strategic grounds.

I do not think it is the trial that we fear so much as the outcome in certain cases. And the cure for this is stop doing illegal things, not to refuse the treaty. I would want our government to stop doing illegal things even if there were no ICJ.
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Post by axordil »

the problem was that in the 1950's and 60's the colonial powers were so despearately eager to get rid of the moral oppobrium associated with possessing colonies that they cast off said colonies long before they had developed sufficient civic structures to be able to fend for themselves.


That's one way of looking it. I think it's a tad revisionist.
All these countries had some trade and manufacturing, but were mostly based in subsistence agriculture.
But they been involved in international trade, and not just as suppliers of raw materials, for centuries, even if most of the citizenry (except for perhaps Singapore) were farmers and fishers. A class of citizens existed who were capable of supporting complex financial structures...and who had something to gain from keeping those structures running.
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Post by Túrin Turambar »

axordil wrote:
All these countries had some trade and manufacturing, but were mostly based in subsistence agriculture.
But they been involved in international trade, and not just as suppliers of raw materials, for centuries, even if most of the citizenry (except for perhaps Singapore) were farmers and fishers. A class of citizens existed who were capable of supporting complex financial structures...and who had something to gain from keeping those structures running.
There have been long-running trade routes throughout Africa as well, with people who traditionally ran them. In that sense, the countries of southern Asia and Africa are comparable.
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Post by axordil »

Did the African routes involve actual specie? I don't want to start sounding like Neil Stephenson or anything, but the difference in level of financial sophistication between a barter route and a currency exchange route is substantial, a difference not in degree but in kind. You don't need banks for barter.
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Post by Jnyusa »

Ax, there is evidence of a financial sector that serviced trade along the Silk Road as early as 4000 BCE. I hesitate to call it a currency exchange route as we would think of that today, and there did not exist institutions such as the banks we have today, but there was currency and there were letters of credit to support trade.

There is every reason to believe that every well-developed trade route would have a currency system because there needs to be some standard of value. However the durability of the currency may not have been very great prior to the minting of metal coins. It is not unusual to have basic grains used as currency. On the other hand, as early as 8000 BCE there was regional trade in jewelry and metals and no reason to reject the idea that they might have been used as currency because of their durability.

We were speaking of Mali earlier, amd their wealth did in fact come from gold. The gold road into Mali was opened by the Romans, who plundered it; and then it enjoyed a resurgence during the Moslem conquest.

More important than the question of whether currency exists, in my mind, is the question of who controls the currency. This may or may not coincide with the source of the currency.

Control of trade by means of controlling the money supply is a fairly late-breaking development. We see it for the first time during the Roman Empire ... at least, I have found no earlier evidence. This is what leads to the mercantile trade patterns that characterized colonial trade and, ultimately, the emergence of regions that are 'underdeveloped' relative to their trading partners.

There is no former colony today that was not at one time either a trade center of the world or an integral part of a flourishing trade route. There is no corner of Asia or Africa that can be excepted from this generalization. Civilizations wax and wane, and the reasons for the decline of different regions are many and varied. Geopolitical forces are to blame in very many cases and environmental degradation in many others.

Destruction of indigenous economies did not begin with the so-called 'Age of Discovery' but the breadth of destruction by colonialism far exceeds anything that came before it.

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Post by solicitr »

Jn:

I'm fully aware that a mean or median doesn't by itself say anything about the range of deviation in the population. But I wouldn't join you in jettisoning p. c. income (or GDP p. c.) as "meaningless." They do represent a very useful measure of an economy's population-adjusted capacity for creating wealth- and without wealth creation there's nothing to distribute, fairly or un-.

That's why the standard monthly Cuban food ration is as follows: 6 lb of rice, 20 oz of beans, 3lb each of white and dark sugar, 15 lb of potatoes or bananas, 1 lb red meat OR 2 lbs chicken or fish, 12 eggs (only in fall) and 1 liter of milk (only for children under 7). Moreover, this ration, well below minimum dietary requirements, costs 70% of the average wage; and has to be supplemented from the 30% left over. This may not be "nothing", but it's bloody close. It's less than the typical weekly food stamp allotment in the US.

The problem with your hypothetical income numbers is that they are essentially static- they take little account of what happens five or ten or thirty years down the road. It's a one-time redistribution- my, that goose tasted good, didn't it? What has happened with Cuba is that your hyp. GDP has remained around $120k, or $13.3k p. c.: stagnation. The rest of the region has passed Cuba by (except poor abused Haiti). The pie in Honduras may not be divided fairly, but at least there's a pie. (And I acknowledge that most Latin American countries are operating along lines more akin to Bourbon France than to Adam Smith ). An even more dramatic comparison is with Vietnam, whose effective abandonment of Marxist economics and embrace of microcapitalism some years back has led to the world's third-fastest growth.

Although you acknowledge the tremendous hit inflicted by the withdrawal of international capital, you neglect to mention the parallel and entirely self-inflicted wound of lost human and intellectual capital: brain drain. Individuals with marketable skills (= income potential) flee an economy where that potential can't be realized -unless you build a wall. Miami is currently experiencing deja vu, filling up with expat Venezuelans; not just the "rich", but a very great proportion of the educated middle class, teachers and engineers and accountants and so on.


********************

You point out that extreme income disparity can lead to revolution and its modern cousin, terrorism. Well, yes but. The terrorism which currently poses such a threat has nothing in common with Nigerian pipeline bombers. The typical Al-Qaeda profile is a Muslim from the upper levels of society, usually college-educated and from a well-to-do family. Nor are these Che T-shirt gradschool guerillas, suddenly stricken with severe class guilt: their programme has nothing to do with economic justice at all, save in the broad sense that under a restored Caliphate Allah will somehow make everything okay. It's dangerously naive (or arrogant) to project upon Islamists our own dislikes about Western civilization. What they hate about us is precisely the things we're proud of.

Okay, maybe not Britney Spears. 8)


****************************

I do agree with you, I think, in viewing with rather jaw-dropping disbelief those countries which have adopted dollar-based currencies. What were they thinking? Even the EU nations had legitimate reservations about the Euro- any country should think twice before relinquishing control of its money supply. But to make your local peso dependent on the US balance of payments and the Fed discount rate, determined based on entirely American conditions? Lunacy.
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Post by solicitr »

If the US were brought to trial for "shock and awe" against Iraq, I honestly don't know what the outcome would be. Presumably US attorneys would make their best case that Iraq had participated in the aggression of 9/11, or that the administration honestly thought so. It is not clear at all to me that the US would not be exonerated, much as I oppose the war on strategic grounds.
Actually the US was on quite solid international-legal grounds. The US and UK were in a (UN-approved) state of declared war with Iraq which had commenced on 16 January 1991, and which continued in effect until the fall of the Saddam regime. The al-Safwan agreement of March '91 was not a peace treaty nor an armistice, but a ceasefire only: a suspension of active hostilities upon terms. Saddam had proceeded to violate virtually every one of those terms, flagrantly and repeatedly. Therefore the Coalition powers had every legal right to consider the cease-fire broken and to resume active operations.

Why didn't the Bushies bring this up? I dunno. Maybe because they're idiots........?
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Post by solicitr »

Granted most of the formerly-colonial world had trading and mercantile structures before the Europeans came. But it's hardly the case that they can be restored today- and even at the time foreign middlemen were often the essential factors. A very great part of the trade of sub-Saharan Africa was conducted by Arabs.

Incidentally, the collapse of Mali can be attributed in large part to the profligacy of King Mansa Musa, and the rapacious eagerness of Arab (mostly Egyptian) merchants to take shameless advantage of it. Ironically, this huge influx of gold helped ultimately to finance the Renaissance, the Age of Discovery, and the foundation of the European colonial empires....
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