Voronwë the Faithful wrote:
If Le Pen wins will France do a Brexit like referendum? Or can Le Pen unilaterally move towards withdrawing France from the EU, presumably with the support of a like-minded legislature?
Article 50 states that any member state may withdraw from the EU in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. What France's requirements are I don't know, but I suspect it would involve passing legislation, as in the U.K. My understanding is that a referendum was not actually required in the U.K., and that the Parliament had the power to invoke Brexit, but holding a referendum was a campaign promise of the Cameron Government.
eborr wrote:
What surprises me is that no-one has switched on to the fact that these two represent the same interest groups and even if that interest group is the largest, I would suspected that by and large they will takes votes from each other.
Yes, it is also possible that Le Pen and Fillon will split the right-of-centre vote and one will knock the other out in the first round of voting. But there's also precedent for the Republicans and FN to finish first and second (2002). A lot depends on the strength of the yet-to-be picked Socialist candidate, and on the ability of Le Pen to attract votes from disaffected former Socialist voters, probably on economic issues, and from people who don't normally vote.
ETA: I should mention that even if Le Pen wants to pull France out of the EU, if it did take legislation, it would take a vote of the Assembly, which would be highly unlikely to have an FN majority.