Hal, this article was in today's Boston Globe:

How McCain Can Pull it Off

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"Live! Live! Live! Life is a banquet, and most poor suckers are starving to death!" - Auntie Mame

Oh, I think if McCain wins, it will be despite a massive loss in popular vote, which is why I think there will be chaos.

As for the "third" that have voted already... I think that's going to be an interesting situation. I'm not sure how that will influence news organizations calling things. From what I can tell, all the information about that early vote is based on estimates by party insiders making estimates due to thier efforts to get out the vote. I don't personally think these figures are accurate, but who knows...

The only real hope I have for conservative victory... is that going into every election since '92, the expected result was dread for conservatives, and yet they have come out ahead every time except in '06.

What will be will be. I'm more worried about chaos due to irregularities than I am about any results...

yes, I know. This isn't very farfetched for people that disbelieve the polls.

Even if McCain loses, the critical piece is the level of 60 in the senate. If the republicans can at least filibuster nightmarish legislation, then I'm not too concerned. If the Dems can do anything they want... then I feel we're in for a world of hurt... for two years anyway.

hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?

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everything happens so much

I don't know where you get your early voting statistics, Hal, but the ones I'm talking about don't come from "party insiders," they come from the secretaries of state in the states with early voting. They aren't estimates, they're counts of ballots received.

As of Monday, 24.4 million people had voted; 57.3% were Democrats and 42.7% were Republicans.

Link

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

They over sample democrats to start with.

But Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans this year.

They generally do, and yet republicans still win, which means you shouldn't over sample for polls. You should just take what you get.

I'm lost...

If there are simply more people registered as Democrats how do you scream sample bias when the polls reflect that reality?

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When you can do nothing what can you do?

Also, "Republicans still win" may no longer apply.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

I suppose I should add that guessing has now closed.

And all this argument over predictions seems a bit odd when we'll know what's going down for sure in a few hours.

Seems not.

So who will win the big prize?

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everything happens so much

and now we know who won . . .

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1. " . . . (we are ) too engrossed in thinking of everything as a preparation or training or making one fit -- for what? At any minute it is what we are and are doing, not what we plan to be and do that counts."

J.R.R. Tolkien in his 6 October 1940 letter to his son Michael Tolkien.

2. We have many ways using technology to be in touch, yet the larger question is are we really connected or are we simply more in touch? There is a difference.

It did.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. It ended when Ohio got called.

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When you can do nothing what can you do?

It did end when Ohio got called. Everyone knew that. Me included....

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*title copyright: Teremia

'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude (as Merry)