Delegate Mirth ( the end has come! )

[solicitr]

I've gotta say I'm disturbed by the Michigan decision, as (I hope) even fair-minded Obama supporters would be. *All* the uncommitted votes assigned to Obama? From a primary conducted when there were a dozen active candidates?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

soli, there were never a dozen active canditates. The other candidates that had their names taken off the ballots were Richardson and Edwards, who have endorsed Obama, and Biden, who has all but endorsed him. Reportedly, they were in a agreement with the deal. This was the formula that Michigan itself came up with, not the Obama campaign, and reflected as best they could (in a bad situation) the will of the voteres. Obama actually had sufficient votes on the committee to have forced a fifty-fifty split, but agreed to the compromise instead.

[Inanna]

To call it a valid primary and go by the votes, when it had only one of the current candidate's name on the ballot would have been even more shocking. I think it was as fair as it could be.

[axordil]

Given the circumstances, any decision that assigned ANY pledged delegates in MI would be arbitrary and unrepresentative, including going by the "election" results. Once you get to that point, you build the most tolerable and politic compromise you can.

[Primula Baggins]

Also, based on other open primaries in this campaign, the Michigan turnout was about a third what it should have been: two-thirds of the people who would have voted in a valid primary didn't bother to turn out, because they had been assured that it wouldn't count.

Link

There were also tens of thousands of write-in votes, most likely mostly for Obama, that weren't counted because he had not authorized a write-in campaign.

[Primula Baggins]

Coming to the end.

At this point Obama needs 42 or 43 delegates. He'll probably get 17 pledged delegates tomorrow. Many of the remaining superdelegates will follow as soon as the results are in, including most of the 17 Democratic senators who haven't yet endorsed. (If they had any intention of endorsing Clinton, they would have done it in the past few weeks when it might have boosted her campaign.)

Edit: It also appears that 34 House Democrats will endorse Obama tomorrow, or so it was reported on MSNBC.

That's it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, he's got two so far today. Actually, one and half, because one of them is from Michigan. Neither are House members, though.

He got a total of five and half, yesterday. Seven individuals, but two from Michigan, and one from Florida. Clinton got two yesterday.

[Primula Baggins]

What I was reading yesterday indicated to me that at least some of the Congressional superdelegates are planning to commit to Obama as a group, and probably late in the day today or early tomorrow.

I'm sure the campaign wants that to happen today, so voters, not superdelegates, are what officially puts him over the top. But he'd need at least 30 to announce today to be sure of that.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Maybe they will let him announce their support in his speech tonight, after the polls close. Although that would still be the supers putting him over the top.

MSNBC is now has the headline: "BREAKING NEWS: AP: Clinton to acknowledge Tuesday night Obama has enough delegates to win." No story, just the headline.

[Dave_LF]

It seems she's prepared to concede that Obama has enough delegates to win, but not to concede that he has won:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/clinton

Looks like she's formally acknowledging the inevitable, but still hoping something will happen to turn the tables.

[Faramond]

... or just wait for an Obama implosion or horrific revelation that will never come.

[Primula Baggins]

I think it probably won't, or it would have already happened. Two well-financed opposing campaigns have been looking for a smoking gun for months now, and all they've come up with is Rev. Wright.

I'm not arguing for sainthood for Obama, though personally I think he's a good man. But he's also a very smart man, smarter than Bill Clinton—if Obama did have any impulses that could get him into trouble, I think he's got the self-discipline to control them, given what's at stake.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

AP is now claiming that Obama has clinched the nomination. But they are including his expected minimum delegate from SD and Montana in their count, so I should be able to claim that they put him over the top.

[axordil]

You should?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Absolutely!

[Primula Baggins]

My politics-junkie older son just reported that MSNBC has Obama 27.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination, and they're predicting he'll get 20 delegates from the vote today. Given the number of superdelegates who've already said they'll commit to Obama as soon as the polls close (5 in Montana alone; and Jimmy Carter just said so, too), I think the AP is right that this is a done deal.

Clinton also apparently just said that she would be open to running for vice president.

Edit: As of 2:20 PDT, Obama is now 16.5 delegates away from clinching. He could probably get it now just with the delegates from MT and SD. He'll have it when he speaks tonight.

[Primula Baggins]

11 to go. The MSNBC talking heads have been talking about history. Keith Olbermann pointed out that in 1948, only 60 years ago, there was a Democratic primary candidate who was an avowed segregationist. Now we're about to nominate a black man. That is very cool.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Love the new title, Faramond!

[Erunáme]

I hate missing out on the American coverage.

I did find I can watch entire NBC nightly news broadcasts and clips that together nearly make an entire episode of Countdown, but I really miss being able to turn on the TV and listen even if the broadcasting isn't all that great all of the time. I feel pretty disconnected.

When I was watching some of the clips, I saw that Clinton's people kept saying that she's won the popular vote? Is that really so? I thought I've read in this thread or the other that that isn't true.

[Dave_LF]

It's true that she won the popular vote.

As long as you don't count the states where she didn't.