The Obama Phenomenon and the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:35 am

Oh, I know that "lying weasel" != "bitch". No, I won't call Hillary that. Yes, a lot of people hate her for sexist reasons. A lot. But there are also people who dislike her for what I would consider completely legit reasons. It's sometimes hard to separate the two, also.

Yeah, I guess "icy" is used more with women than men. I've never heard someone called an ice king! That said, I sure would use some negative adjective to describe Hillary regarding this meeting with Cooper.

Huckabee is not going to be the nominee! Unless there are some goofy brokered convention things going on. It's also hard to see Romney getting a clear majority of delegates, though maybe he'll get some crazy momentum after his possible better than expected showing tonight.

Honestly, I think Obama is unstoppable. I'm okay with that.

Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:54 am

Faramond wrote:Yeah, I guess "icy" is used more with women than men. I've never heard someone called an ice king!

Actually, that's a really good example, because I have definitely heard "icy" used as a complimentary term about men (in the same sort of way that it is said that they have "nerves of steel").

Honestly, I think Obama is unstoppable. I'm okay with that.

I think there is a good chance that the primary and caucuses are going to be so evenly split that it will come down to Clinton's advantage in the super-delegates. And that, I think, would be a shame.

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:04 am

No, no, Obama is going to win! The more Dem voters see of him the more most of them want to vote for him.

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:12 am

I read the Brooks piece. I do find myself wondering if a male politician employing similar tactics would ever have been criticized for doing it; or if instead people would admire his manly forcefulness.

No, on the whole he would be called either a nether orifice or a generative organ- including by other politicians. This sort of dealing would be right at home in Tom DeLay's playbook- who deserves any and all the above epithets.

I have a couple of good friends who worked as Hill staffers during the Clinton years- and while the press seemed to be amazed 'charming' Bill couldn't get a Democratic congress to cooperate when he had one, it was no surprise at all to the staffers- because what Brooks described was SOP in the early Clinton days.

Another friend (DCPD, Secret Service liason) had numerous occasions to observe the Clintons at first hand: a shocking contrast to the ever-considerate elder Bushes, the Clintons were disdainful, rude, and sometimes abusive to perceived 'underlings.'

I've also never forgiven Hillary for forcing the White House Naval Attache to serve canapes like a bloody waiter....

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:19 am

And yet Tom DeLay had a successful political career for quite a while.

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:57 am

Clinton’s victories seem fairly concentrated to the areas she has a connection to – in and around New York, and in and around Arkansas. It seems she’s going backwards elsewhere, which is a concern for her campaign. We can’t make any judgements until California, though.

McCain is heading for a big night. He might not get over the line today, but he’s pulled ahead as a clear frontrunner. The GOP might not be heading for a brokered convention after all. What's stopping him now is Huckabee's pesky habit of winning a lot of delegates in the (crucial) south.

Post by **Frelga** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:17 am

Here's a cool site from Google Maps and Twitter

And really, CA 57/34 for Clinton?

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:24 am

Interesting exit poll results in California:

Unsurprisingly, black Democrats have gone overwhelmingly for Obama. Rather more surprisingly white Dems have also gone for Obama over Clinton by a small but significant margin.

But on the other hand:

Latinos- 2:1 Clinton
Asians- 3:1 Clinton.

An intersting twist on racial politics, 2008 style.

The GOP might not be heading for a brokered convention after all. What's stopping him now is Huckabee's pesky habit of winning a lot of delegates in the (crucial) south.

Huck hasn't won Georgia or Missouri yet; in fact, McCain currently leads in Mizzou.

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:34 am

Still, Huckabee seems to be storming home in the Deep South. Also, with more results coming in from the West, Romney is looking more hopeful. Its bad news for the GOP, though – one candidate has won the south, another the Midwest, and neither is the frontrunner.

Post by **Cerin** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:07 am

I'm so pleased it wasn't a runaway for Obama, as people seemed to be talking about. Of all the candidates who spoke tonight, I thought Hillary was the best. I believe her to be sincere and compassionate, and I felt excited and moved by her speech; I totally reject all this Hillary hatred, and a sweep for Obama would have seemed like a win for that hatred to me. I'm glad this will go on, so that people will continue to have a chance to further assess all of the candidates.

Obama struck me as always, as alot of style and charisma, but without the substance Hillary has. I thought E. J. Dionne had a good column talking about the differences in their campaigns, and he hit on what bothers me about the Obama campaign -- it's almost religious in nature. I don't need someone to usher in Paradise on earth for me, all I need is someone who can help reverse some of the horrors of the last eight years, and get the country back on the right track.

Post by **Cerin** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:09 am

Post by **nerdanel** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:21 am

For the second time in a row, I have to agree wholeheartedly with Cerin (especially having just heard Obama speak, and feeling utterly...distanced from the enchantment so many seem to feel with his ethereal promise of "change").

Post by **Cerin** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:23 am

Oh, oh ... they've called California for McCain, and David Brooks says that means it's over for the Republicans. I hope Romney doesn't decide it's over.

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:28 am

California: Called for Clinton and McCain. The big enchilada.

I'm not sure whom this is a bigger win for. This cements McCain's status as crown prince. For Clinton, it shows that she still has the party machinery to beat down the Obama insurgency.

And Missouri (58, WTA) to McCain. Romney is finished. Huckabee was never a contender- just a southern spoiler.

Now- with the Dem race still tight, how long I wonder before Hillary starts taking the low road?

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:29 am

Well, I just looked at the county by county results of what returns are in so far California, and McCain is leading in every single county. ALL of them. It's a bloodbath for Romney.

If this across the board lead for McCain holds up in the congressional districts then he will win nearly all of the 170 Republican delegates in CA. Though these districts have been gerrymandered within an inch of their lives, so who knows?

Post by **River** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:38 am

CO went to Obama, but I think CNN knew that before I even came home from my precinct's caucus (our captain called in our results as soon as we had them). In my precinct, six of our seven delegates went to Obama. The other one went to Clinton. By the time the meeting officially began, most of us had been waiting for two hours and we all just wanted to go home. I think there will be many stern letters sent to the Colorado Democrats demanding a primary next time around.

I'm going to my county's convention in March as an alternate delegate for Obama and a full delegate for Mark Udall, who, after many excellent terms (my opinion, of course

) as Congressman, is taking on the Senate. Hopefully the convention will be better organized than the county's caucuses were. That was a bloody disaster. Though, to be fair, turnout was record. My precinct caucused in a gym because, even with people standing, they couldn't pack all 120 of us into the high school classroom we were originally placed in.

Post by **Cerin** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:44 am

solicitr wrote:Now- with the Dem race still tight, how long I wonder before Hillary starts taking the low road?

How long, I wonder, before solicitr starts in with the Hillary bashing?

Perhaps I'll keep a running count. That should be fun. Or maybe we should have a pool -- how many times will solicitr trash Hillary before she becomes President? Closest without going over wins . . .

. . . we'll think of something.

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:51 am

The biggest loser tonight is probably Zogby polls. Boy were they completely wrong on California, projecting both Obama and Romney with big leads when in fact Clinton and McCain have settled in with comfortable wins.

Post by **River** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 7:00 am

I'm losing faith in polls. They're about as good as weather forecasts anymore.

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 7:10 am

Cerin wrote:
solicitr wrote:Now- with the Dem race still tight, how long I wonder before Hillary starts taking the low road?
How long, I wonder, before solicitr starts in with the Hillary bashing?

Perhaps I'll keep a running count. That should be fun. Or maybe we should have a pool -- how many times will solicitr trash Hillary before she becomes President? Closest without going over wins . . .

. . . we'll think of something.

I wonder, will it be more than the number of times you trash Bush before he leaves office?

I think that would make a good side bet.