How do you commute, nerdanel? I'm just trying to imagine where you would have internet access!
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The big state on both sides is California, not so much in terms of delegates but in terms of who may be perceived as the winner with momentum after Tuesday. It's pretty likely that both McCain and Clinton will win the most delegates that day, but a victory by Romney in CA would help him stay in the race and perhaps mount his own comeback while a victory by Obama combined with his steady rise in national polls might pull him virtually even with Clinton in terms of who is favored to win the nomination. The California polls have been frustratingly absent until late yesterday and now today, when a flood of them has finally come in.
Four words describe the state of things in California for both the Republicans and Democrats: TOO CLOSE TO CALL!
Below are some links to the latest CA polls on realclearpolitics.com:
CA-R
CA-D
On the Republican side McCain leads Romney in 3 of the 4
current polls. I discount Rasmussen as current because their poll is older than the rest; I suspect that when they come out with a new one they will show Romney in the lead. McCain still comes out ahead in an average of the 4 current polls, but I think it's worth noting that Zogby has Romney up by 3, and Zogby seems to be pretty accurate in my experience. That said, even the best polls have margins of error and all the rest still have McCain in front, so I'm thinking the candidates are basically tied in California, with McCain maybe still holding a slight edge. But who knows?
On the Democratic side, 2 of 3 current polls show Clinton with one digit leads, and again Zogby shows the underdog in front of the front-runner. Obama leads Clinton by 4 in the Zogby poll. It looks like Obama and Clinton are pretty much tied in California at this point.
Even if McCain's lead in CA is slipping or gone, he's still running strong nearly everywhere else. He's going to win New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Illinois, Connecticut. He's still running strong in the south, and he seems to have opened up a lead in the three-way race in Missouri. ( Zogby has him up 9 there ). McCain is going to win more delegates, probably far more, especially since a lot of these states are winner-takes-all. ( CA is not, though. ) If Romney wins CA and gets some momentum maybe he could swing the tide by winning out the rest of the way --- but the problem is there just aren't many winner-takes-all states left after Tuesday, so he'd really have trouble closing the gap.
The Democratic race is far from over, even if Obama loses CA. If he wins, it's a whole new game in my opinion.
