Voronwë_the_Faithful wrote:
I wonder what kind of reaction there is going to be if Obama gets more delegates through the primary/caucus process, but Clinton gets put over the top by the superdelegates. I don't think that folks are going to be terribly happy about that.
And if it's really close the Michigan and Florida delegates become a major concern as well. I don't doubt that if Clinton has a comfortable delegate margin that those delegations will be allowed at the convention. But if it really matters, if Obama and Clinton are virtually tied up, what I read is that it could come down to a floor vote on procedure.
What is it going to take for them to be tied up? Clinton is going to take New York, and Obama is going to take Illinois. Clinton leads in the polls in most of the other states voting Super Tuesday. Even if Obama wins some states Hillary is almost certain to take the most delegates because she has a pretty big advantage in New York, and remember delegates are awarded proportionally, so size of victory matters. However --- there is also California, the biggest prize. The biggest prize in delegates, and the biggest prize in terms of who "wins" Super Tuesday according to observers.
So --- BREAKING NEWS --- Obama pulls to within striking distance of Clinton in the latest Rasmussen Poll taken in CA:
Clinton 43
Obama 40
Edwards 9
The poll was taken on Jan 29, this past Tuesday, when FL voted. That explains why Edwards shows up there.
So, this is a very small margin for Clinton! Just 3 points. If Obama could narrow this gap and win CA, then while he would still likely win fewer delegates than Clinton on Super Tuesday, he would win enough to stay within striking distance, plus have the all important momentum of having won the biggest, most diverse state in the union.
Now I have to say I am very leery of Rasmussen polls. At least on the Republican side! There seems to be something off in their methodology, because they always have McCain doing worse than all the other polls. That, by itself, doesn't mean they are wrong. But their last FL poll had Romney and McCain tied, while all the other major polling outfits had McCain up about 3 points, and the result was that McCain won by 5 points. The question is: do they have a similar methodological flaw in their Democrat polling?
Where will the Edwards voters go? What will the late deciders do? That's almost 20% of the voters right there. If Edwards endorses Obama, that may swing a small majority of his supporters to Obama --- otherwise I've read polls that seem to indicate that more of his supporters are likely to go to Clinton. The non-Edwards late deciders are likely to go for Obama, if past trends hold up. It really looks like we are headed for a very close Dem race in CA.