Caring about Africa

[Túrin Turambar]

Military coup in Niger

This might actually be a good thing, given that the current President has insisted on staying in office beyond the end of his term. It'll depend on whether the generals actually follow through on their promise to restore democracy, though.

[yovargas]

Do they ever?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

A bit of good news for a change.

Guinea votes in landmark election

[Primula Baggins]

Oh, I hope it goes well, Voronwë. Soldiers not having to vote in their barracks is a good sign.

And, of course, Konate has to allow power to be transferred to the winner of the election. What do you know about him, Voronwë? Do you think he'll keep his word?

[River]

Do they ever?

I think Pakistan pulled it off.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And, of course, Konate has to allow power to be transferred to the winner of the election. What do you know about him, Voronwë? Do you think he'll keep his word?

I am cautiously optimistic. To review the history (which wasn't completely covered in the article that I posted, after Lansana Conte died in 2008, a military Junta led by a charismatic young army Captain, 'Dadis' Camara, took power. After initially promising to transition to civilian rule, Dadis backed away from the promise and indicated that he would run for President, and it seemed clear that the same pattern that had previously occurred with Conte (and in many other siutations in Africa and elsewhere) would repeat itself. Then there was the horrible massacre (and mass public rapes) at the opposition rally last year, and the situation seemed to be teetering on disaster. But in a weird twist, Dadis was then shot in the head by the head of his bodyguard (who apparently was directly responsible for the massacre), and by most accounts has become an invalid. General Konate, who was the head of the military and the deputy leader of the Junta then took over a transitional government, sharing power with an opposition leader acting as Prime Minister. The key is that Konate really has no political ambitions himself (and did not run in the election). By all accounts, he is genuinely interested in transitioning to civilian rule. The only real wild card are Dadis supporters who would like to see him return and take over the government. But it doesn't seem like that is likely to be a big issue.

The bigger issue is whether the new government will be able to successfully provide the services that are so desperately needed by the poverty-stricken country. There are a lot of resources to use to support that effort, if they are not siphoned off through corruption.

[Primula Baggins]

Cautious optimism sounds better than I would have expected, if I'd known the whole story of what's happened since the massacre.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The long winding road of Guinea's first-ever free election appears to finally reaching fruition.

Guinea Votes in Its First Democratic Presidential Election

The next few weeks will be telling. If the country can avoid serious ethnic strife and implement the results of the run-off, it will be a major victory.

[elfshadow]

Interesting, V, and thank you for posting that. I hope that the coming weeks will be peaceful for Guineans. I am nearly always glad to hear that former dictatorships have started to democratize "organically", rather than having democracy be set up by some outside state. I think that such a process, if successful, will end up being far more stable. I truly hope this will be the case in Guinea. Certainly it will take decades, at the least, for most of Africa to become politically and socially stable, but we can all celebrate the smaller victories along the way.

On an unrelated Africa topic, an immunology professor from the University of Ghana spoke to my molecular biology class today about malaria and drug resistance. The disease has a very interesting history (at least, for those who find that kind of thing interesting at all ). Its epidemiology is not as well known in the West, I think, as diseases such as HIV, but it has been around for thousands of years and existed in most of the world until recently. Most wealthy nations have eradicated it. It is a disease that is is most lethal to the poor, particularly very young children. It's almost similar to the flu or even the common cold in this way. The professor who spoke said that, growing up, he got malaria about twice a year. Those with stronger immune systems who can afford the necessary drug treatment will survive easily. The poor and malnourished are less lucky. There is no vaccine for malaria like there is for the flu, and the parasite has become resistant to some of the drugs that once treated it most effectively (like chloroquine).

[Primula Baggins]

This is an interesting topic but, except in regard to how it's affecting Africa, not related to yovargas's purpose in starting this thread, so I'm going to split off the unrelated discussion. Everybody pick up their drinks until the shaking stops.

Okay, done. New thread is here.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

So far, so good:

US hails peaceful Guinea vote

[Primula Baggins]

Here's a Reuters article from today, describing the first results:

Tensions mount as Guinea poll results trickle in

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Teetering on the edge. Could go either way.

Guinea election results delayed after complaints

Partial results tighten margin in Guinea vote

[Voronwë the Faithful]

SNAP ANALYSIS-Guinea election: focus on loser's reaction

Guinea's veteran opposition leader Alpha Conde has turned around a poor first-round performance to defeat favourite Cellou Dalein Diallo and win a run-off for the presidency of the West African county.

With tension running high and some outbreaks of violence before the provisional results were announced on Monday, all eyes will now focus on whether and how Diallo challenges the results.

International and regional pressure on him to confine his challenge to legal means and accept defeat gracefully will be intense, but so will be the frustration of many of his supporters, meaning the risk of violence will be high.

We'll see.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Sadly, it seems to be following a predictable pattern:

Guinea boosts security in hotspots under state of emergency

[Primula Baggins]

[Griffon64]

If reports that the military are participating in targeting the losing side's supporters is are true and if this is widespread, then how different is this democratic victory from yet another military rule?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm not sure yet whether it is true. I'm trying to get a sense of what is happening from people that I know there, but I haven't heard anything directly yet. But initial reports in the media are certainly not promising.

[Túrin Turambar]

That is why I haven't given this election too much consideration. It seems to me that it will simply follow the regular pattern. Stable democracy needs certain preconditions to arise, and I don't see those present in Guinea or anywhere else in Francophone Africa.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, fortunately you appear to be wrong on this one, L_M. The Guinean Supreme Court has affirmed the victory of opposition leader Alpha Conde, and his rival Cellou Dalein Diallo has conceded. By all accounts, the country is peaceful and moving forward.

Diallo concedes after Conde named Guinea president

Conde has announced plans to form a truth and reconciliation commission modeled after South Africa's post-apartheid commission formed by Nelson Mandela.

Guinea's Conde plans truth commission on violence

In contrast, the situation in Guinea's neighbor, Ivory Coast, is sadly following that well-tred path that Lord M. describes, with its recent election resulting in both the incumbent President and the opposition leader declaring victory and taking the oath of office. The country is on the brink:

Cote d’Ivoire deadlock deepens as rivals name governments