2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[N.E. Brigand]

Ryan Goodman of Just Security notes that based on senators' statements about their vote in the impeachment trial, only 11 of them said that Trump did nothing wrong, and 70 appear to be believe he was guilty on the merits (but 13 of them acquitted on jurisdictional grounds).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Looking at his pie chart, it is even more stark. Of the 30 that are not in the category of believing him to be guilty on the merits, only 11 were actually supportive of Trump; the other 19 were neutral on Trump, neither supporting him nor criticizing him.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, Trump put out a lengthy statement attacking McConnell:

The Republican Party can never again be respected or strong with political "leaders" like Sen. Mitch McConnell at its helm. McConnell's dedication to business as usual, status quo policies, together with his lack of political insight, wisdom, skill, and personality, has rapidly driven him from Majority Leader to Minority Leader, and it will only get worse. The Democrats and Chuck Schumer play McConnell like a fiddle—they've never had it so good—and they want to keep it that way! We know our America First agenda is a winner, not McConnell's Beltway First agenda or Biden's America Last.

In 2020, I received the most votes of any sitting President in history, almost 75,000,000. Every incumbent House Republican won for the first time in decades, and we flipped 15 seats, almost costing Nancy Pelosi her job. Republicans won majorities in at least 59 of the 98 partisan legislative chambers, and the Democrats failed to flip a single legislative chamber from red to blue. And in "Mitch's Senate," over the last two election cycles, I single-handedly saved at least 12 Senate seats, more than eight in the 2020 cycle alone—and then came the Georgia disaster, where we should have won both U.S. Senate seats, but McConnell matched the Democrat offer of $2,000 stimulus checks with $600. How does that work? It became the Democrats' principal advertisement, and a big winner for them it was. McConnell then put himself, one of the most unpopular politicians in the United States, into the advertisements. Many Republicans in Georgia voted Democrat, or just didn't vote, because of their anguish at their inept Governor, Brian Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and the Republican Party, for not doing its job on Election Integrity during the 2020 Presidential race.

It was a complete election disaster in Georgia, and certain other swing states. McConnell did nothing, and will never do what needs to be done in order to secure a fair and just electoral system in the future. He doesn't have what it takes, never did, and never will.

My only regret is that McConnell "begged" for my strong support and endorsement before the great people of Kentucky in the 2020 election, and I gave it to him. He went from one point down to 20 points up, and won. How quickly he forgets. Without my endorsement, McConnell would have lost, and lost badly. Now, his numbers are lower than ever before, he is destroying the Republican side of the Senate, and in so doing, seriously hurting our Country.

Likewise, McConnell has no credibility on China because of his family's substantial Chinese business holding. He does nothing on this tremendous economic and military threat.Mitch is a dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack, and if Republican Senators are going to stay with him, they will not win again. He will never do what needs to be done, or what is right for our Country. Where necessary and appropriate, I will back primary rivals who espouse Making America Great Again and our policy of America First. We want brilliant, strong, thoughtful, and compassionate leadership.

Prior to the pandemic, we produced the greatest economy and jobs numbers in the history of our Country, and likewise, our economic recovery after Covid was the best in the world. We cut taxes and regulations, rebuilt our military, took care of our Vets, became energy independent, built the wall and stopped the massive inflow of illegals into our Country, and so much more. And now, illegals are pouring in, pipelines are being stopped, taxes will be going up, and we will no longer be energy independent.

This is a big moment for our country, and we cannot let it pass by using third rate "leaders" to dictate our future!

https://www.newsweek.com/read-donald-tr ... nt-1569753

[Frelga]

"The Republican Party can never again be respected or strong with political "leaders" like Sen. Mitch McConnell at its helm."

He's got a point there.

[Túrin Turambar]

Based on the wording he didn't write the statement, although it obviously reflects his sentiments. A few conservative commentators (e.g. Ben Shapiro) have suggested that he might have won had he stayed off Twitter and stopped making himself the story in the news every night for saying something outrageous, and instead acted more like he has over the past month or so. Which I get. On the other hand, he got into the Presidency by keeping himself in the news cycle, so it might be a feature as much as a bug.

On another note, I seriously wonder if both major parties wouldn't be better off clearing out their Congressional leadership. I have no issues with older leaders, but some of these septuagenarians who've been in Congress since the Reagan Administration might stand aside in favour of someone with more recent experience of the world outside Washington D.C. and less political baggage.

[RoseMorninStar]

It would be nice to have a better quality of representatives no matter their age. I am concerned that we seem to be acquiring more extremists and that there is no longer room for centrists. Paul Ryan was a more traditional Conservative Republican (although fairly 'right' in my opinion) and that's why he left. It's become a party of fringe conspiracy theorists and Trumpian loyalists.

[Inanna]

Anyone remember John Huntsman?

[RoseMorninStar]

Anyone remember John Huntsman?

I do! He's not even that old (60). We could use more politicians like him.

A couple of months ago I think it was David Brooks??, conservative columnist at the NYT, who wrote a piece about believing the party had a small fringe element (of racists, conspiracy theorists, etc..) and they came to realize that it was the majority of the party, not the fringe. I'll have to see if I can find that article.

[River]

I blame gerrymandering. If your district is safe, why compete for the center? Or even care that there is a center? Why not just try to out-flank the other guy? It turns into a game of one-upsmanship until you end up with pure, distilled crazy.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

According to a tweet from Jan Wolfe retweeted by Brad Heath:

- The initial version of the statement was more incendiary, a source tells NYT.

- A second person said Trump had initially planned to give a press conference, but aides feared he would "go off track."

https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status/13 ... 6793107456

[RoseMorninStar]

I blame gerrymandering. If your district is safe, why compete for the center? Or even care that there is a center? Why not just try to out-flank the other guy? It turns into a game of one-upsmanship until you end up with pure, distilled crazy.

I agree. 100% Democrats don't even bother to run here because it's so gerrymandered.

V, is the initial statement you are referring to the one Trump put out regarding McConnell? I agree with the last line, but not in the way he intended:

This is a big moment for our country, and we cannot let it pass by using third rate "leaders" to dictate our future!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Lisa Murkowski has now been censured by the Alaska Republican Party, leaving Romney and Collins as the only two Republican senators that voted for conviction to not be censured. The Utah Republican Party put out a statement supporting the "diversity of thought" between their Senators (after all Romney is probably Trump's biggest GOP critic in the Senate and Mike Lee is among his strongest supporters). The Maine Republican party is still debating whether to censor Collins.

As for Murkowski, remember that she already kept her seat in 2010 after losing a primary. Not sure whether it could happen again. Among those considering challenging her are reportedly Fox News' Laura Ingraham (it is not clear to me how she would meet the residency requirement) and former governor and VP candidate Sarah Palin.

[Frelga]

IIRC, Alaska has an open primary now, which should help shield Murkowski from an attack from the right. I almost said far right, but that's just normal GOP now.

[RoseMorninStar]

Ugh. No words. When will this mass delusion end.

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. No one wins when a narcissist is involved. They will stop at nothing and drag everything and everyone down with them.

Frelga, I agree. The GOP has been overtaken by the far right.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

IIRC, Alaska has an open primary now, which should help shield Murkowski from an attack from the right.

Good point. They approved ranked choice voting as well as a "top four" open primary (as opposed to the two two open primary that we have have here, without ranked choice voting) and strict disclosures of the sources of campaign donations over $2000, in the November 2020 election.

[River]

Murkowski won in 2010 as a write-in. Let that sink in. Then consider she issued a statement after her vote that basically boiled down to "If you want my seat come and claim it." You'd have to be nuts to try and touch that. Even with a ten-foot pole and full body shielding.

[N.E. Brigand]

Remember that file of people in military garb winding their way through the crowd up the steps toward the Capitol? Today seven of the twelve have been hit with conspiracy charges.

It's interesting to note the takeaway of a prominent conservative columnist named Byron York of the Washington Examiner upon reading the charging documents in which various participants in this "stack" are quoted as to their motivations. They believed that when President Trump tweeted in December that the January 6 event would be "wild," what he meant was that he wanted his followers to make it wild. York says this shows that the people who showed up for the insurrection were were already delusional and therefore it's not Trump's fault that they launched an attack on the Capitol.

[RoseMorninStar]

I wonder if delusional will go over any better than deplorable?

And how does, "Stand back and stand by" fit into that?

[elengil]

A good and terrifying summary of what exactly Trump has meant for the actual application of the constitution.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... on/618097/

[N.E. Brigand]

NBC reports that a big factor in Democrats losing Hispanic votes in Texas was the (pandemic-driven) decision not to canvas in person.

- - - - - - - - - -
Mark Joseph Stern notes that Justice Thomas, dissenting along with Justices Alito and Gorsuch from the Supreme Court's order to dismiss election cases in Pennsylvania, argues that mail voting is particularly subject to fraud. Stern anticipates Republican-controlled state legislatures citing Thomas's argument as they work to make it much harder to vote by mail.

Isn't that likely to backfire? Until 2020, it was Republicans not Democrats who were more likely to vote by mail. Without a pandemic, shouldn't we expect a return to that pattern?