Before we proceed further, one disclaimer about the scope of the model: It seeks to reflect the vote as cast on Election Day, assuming that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. It does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.
That does not mean it’s safe to assume these rules and norms will be respected. (If we were sure they would be respected, there wouldn’t be any need for this disclaimer!) But it’s just not in the purview of the sort of statistical analysis we conduct in our model to determine the likelihood they will or won’t be respected.
We do think, however, that well-constructed polls and models can provide a useful benchmark if any attempts to manipulate the election do occur. For instance, a candidate (in a state with incomplete results because mail ballots have yet to be counted) declaring themselves the winner in a state where the model had given them an 0.4 percent chance of winning would need to be regarded with more suspicion than one where they’d had a 40 percent chance going in (although a 40 percent chance of winning is by no means a sure thing either, obviously).
Trump's chances of winning based on this initial 538 forecast is exactly the same as his chances of winning in their final 2016 model: 29%.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
Let's see what happens. I read somewhere there's a smaller percentage of undecided's this year, which will limit the amount of squish in the polls. OTOH, Trump admitted on Fox this morning that the coronavirus relief talks are stalled because he doesn't want to fund the Postal Service because he doesn't want mail-in voting to be effective. So he's looking for any edge he can create through any means he can create it.
"They want $25 billion — billion — for the post office. Now they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots," Trump said. "Now, in the meantime, they aren't getting there. By the way, those are just two items. But if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail-in voting ... because they're not equipped."
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
Wisconsin is in play in all but one of those scenarios. I am very anxious. They are pushing the Kanye thing here and if one considers the following, I find it concerning.
A third-party candidate with name recognition as high as West could undoubtedly influence a close election. In Wisconsin in 2016, there were 36,460 write-in votes for president — exceeding Trump’s statewide margin of victory of 22,748, said David Jackson, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University whose research focuses on the links between young people’s entertainment and political preferences.
The Kanye thing could backfire on them as well.it is entirely possible that of the small number of voters who would vote for a candidate who by definition would have no chance of winning, a high percentage would be disaffected voters who would probably vote for Trump otherwise.
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"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:The Kanye thing could backfire on them as well (...)
I've considered this. I've also wondered if Trump's blatant undermining of the post office for personal political gain could backfire.. unless it is completely corrupted from every angle. Which he seems to be attempting to do.
If he wins, he de-legitimizes his own victory with such tactics. Anyone paying attention who doesn't see that is an idiot. Anyone paying attention who does see it and is going along with it anyway is a danger to keeping a republic.
A Trump-appointed judge in Pennsylvania has ordered the Trump administration to provide whatever evidence they have of the potential for fraud by voting by mail, by (if I am reading correctly) tomorrow.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:A Trump-appointed judge in Pennsylvania has ordered the Trump administration to provide whatever evidence they have of the potential for fraud by voting by mail, by (if I am reading correctly) tomorrow.
Or what? What would be the consequences of Trump's lies? What would be done about his shenanigans with the Post Office? He says these outlandish outright lies because he can and no one does anything. It' SHOULD be Bill Barr's job.. but he's not going to do his job.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:A Trump-appointed judge in Pennsylvania has ordered the Trump administration to provide whatever evidence they have of the potential for fraud by voting by mail, by (if I am reading correctly) tomorrow.
Or what? What would be the consequences of Trump's lies? What would be done about his shenanigans with the Post Office? He says these outlandish outright lies because he can and no one does anything. It' SHOULD be Bill Barr's job.. but he's not going to do his job.
Just to elaborate on this further, this is a case that the Trump Campaign and the RNC brought against Pennsylvania Secretary of State and numerous county boards of elections trying to disallow expanded voting by mail. The state Democratic Party and others including the Sierra Club intervened, and propounded discovery requests to the Trump Campaign asking them to provide all information and documents that they had that supported their assertion that voting by mail was subject to fraud and of course the Trump campaign refused. So the interveners brought a motion to compel and the court not only granted it, but required that the Trump campaign provide the information by the next day (which is unheard of), or state that there isn't any. If the Trump campaign refuses to abide by that order (and neither provides the information nor concedes that there isn't any) the defendants in the case can do another motion requesting that the court either deem that there isn't any such information, or even dismiss the case altogether.
Given that Pennsylvania is a key state in the election that Trump won in 2016, I would say that this is a BFD.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
Given that Pennsylvania is a key state in the election that Trump won in 2016, I would say that this is a BFD.
I like the sound of that, Voronwë! It's about time someone called him on his bullshit!
When the night has been too lonely, and the road has been too long,
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:A Trump-appointed judge in Pennsylvania has ordered the Trump administration to provide whatever evidence they have of the potential for fraud by voting by mail, by (if I am reading correctly) tomorrow.
Or what? What would be the consequences of Trump's lies? What would be done about his shenanigans with the Post Office? He says these outlandish outright lies because he can and no one does anything. It' SHOULD be Bill Barr's job.. but he's not going to do his job.
Just to elaborate on this further, this is a case that the Trump Campaign and the RNC brought against Pennsylvania Secretary of State and numerous county boards of elections trying to disallow expanded voting by mail. The state Democratic Party and others including the Sierra Club intervened, and propounded discovery requests to the Trump Campaign asking them to provide all information and documents that they had that supported their assertion that voting by mail was subject to fraud and of course the Trump campaign refused. So the interveners brought a motion to compel and the court not only granted it, but required that the Trump campaign provide the information by the next day (which is unheard of), or state that there isn't any. If the Trump campaign refuses to abide by that order (and neither provides the information nor concedes that there isn't any) the defendants in the case can do another motion requesting that the court either deem that there isn't any such information, or even dismiss the case altogether.
Given that Pennsylvania is a key state in the election that Trump won in 2016, I would say that this is a BFD.
Ah.. gotcha. Thank you for that explanation V. I would imagine that the unusual 'information by the next day' request is the 'I'm calling you on this misinformation bull$h*t'. Either put up or shut up.
Yes, and remember, this is a judge that was appointed by Trump.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
