2020 Presidential Election

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Warren actually talked last night about exactly what happened that caused her precipitous drop. She had the gall to start talking about to actually get to Medicare for all and Sanders supporters (and to some extent the Sanders campaign itself) responded by viciously attacking her.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Frelga]

My favorite internet comment on the subject was that Warren should say that Mexico will pay for our healthcare. Hey, it worked once.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Sanders should.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[yovargas]

Capture.JPG (71.11 KiB) Viewed 3727 times

I am baffled by the seemingly last-minute nationwide Sanders surge.

[Túrin Turambar]

I'd say it's a combination of a) progressives who like Sanders' ideas now realising that he can actually win and they can openly support him without the need for tactical voting and b) bandwagon effect, or the natural tendency of the major parties to avoid contested conventions by getting behind a surging candidate (see Trump in 2016, Obama in 2008, etc).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Colbert will be happy if Sanders wins.

[yovargas]

Much better than his Warren impression I imagine.

[elengil]

Much better than his Warren impression I imagine.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

538's latest forecast has "no majority" up to 52%, while Sanders winning a majority is down to 28%, and Biden back up to 18%, with a surge of good polling for South Carolina. Without Bloomberg in the race, Biden would probably still be the favorite.

[yovargas]

Or, perhaps more accurately, without Bloomberg's gigantic pile of cash.

[Frelga]

Or, perhaps more accurately, without Bloomberg's gigantic pile of cash.

Bloomberg IS a gigantic pile of cash in a trench coat.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

He'd probably be better of if instead of showing up at the debates, he just left a big pile of $100 bills on his seat.

All those hundreds of millions of dollars that he has spent has got him all of a 2% chance of winning the nomination according the 538 forecast, and I think that is high. One would think that Sanders would be last person (other than Elizabeth Warren) that he would want to win the nomination, but that is exactly what he is most likely to achieve.

Thinking about that 52% possibility of no majority. Sanders and his supporters say that he receives the most votes he should get the nomination even if he doesn't get a majority, but that doesn't really fly to me. Why should a moderate Buttigieg delegate, for instance, go to Sanders when Biden would be more in line with her candidate's positions. If there is a majority in total for a moderate candidate, should they combine for the top moderate candidate (which is still likely to be Biden)?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

South Carolina was called for Biden almost as soon as the polls closed.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Voronwë the Faithful]

With 10 percent of the vote in, Biden has fully 55%, to less than 15% for Sanders. If the final count is anywhere near that, it could reset the race.

Or not.

It's hard to believe that just a few days ago, there was talk of Sanders being favored to win the state.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Túrin Turambar]

Ten percent in and Biden has over half the votes. It’s a reverse of Nevada – this time Biden has massively outperformed his polls. He may actually do well enough to overtake Sanders in the pledged delegate count, which would be remarkable given his performances in Iowa and NH.

According to 538, Biden, Sanders and Steyer shared the white vote equally, but black voters (two-thirds of the SC Democratic electorate) went overwhelmingly for Biden.

Overall I think I’d still prefer to be Sanders than Biden. Sanders is the only candidate to have come first or second in every contest and the only one to have won a primary or caucus in more than one region of the country. But unless something big changes on Super Tuesday, this could go to the Convention. I’d been bearish on that possibility before, but it’s actually looking more likely now.

Bloomberg is probably the big loser tonight - Biden has shown himself viable, so it's not clear what pitch Bloomberg could make.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The Times is predicting a final victory margin of 22%, which would be pretty significant. Hard to say how much that will affect voting on Tuesday, particularly with Bloomberg finally in the mix.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Steyer is out.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Frelga]

Consistent to the last, at least

Screenshot_20200301-084642.jpg (72.86 KiB) Viewed 3585 times

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Buttigieg is out.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[River]

Says something about the value of the Iowa caucus...

Snark aside, it was impressive and heartening to see an openly gay man make it this far. And I'm going to miss him. He was one of the few heading into Super Tuesday who is younger than my retired parents.