2018 U.S. Congressional elections

[Frelga]

Yov, in a word, yes.

Here's a thought provoking article I found a while back

The Real Story of Automation Beginning with One Simple Chart

[Primula Baggins]

That's a good one, Frelga.

[yovargas]

I will definitely look at that later when I have more time. I find the subject interesting. Two questions about it before I get to it though:

- Does it try to answer what is different now from the past two centuries of machines making human labor obselete?
- Does it look at global statistics or just US numbers?

If the answer to both questions is no, I consider that a fatal flaw to these arguments.

[Frelga]

Yes to the first, don't remember to the second.

[Griffon64]

I will read that article after work, since this topic interests me a lot, too. For now I will blather some quick and handwavey thoughts instead.

One thing to consider: automation ( and also medical advancements, including basic understanding of hygiene ) have helped lead to population explosion ( cheaper to produce food in vast amounts, easier to keep people from dying from preventable diseases like cholera ). Today's machines ( GPS-controlled farming equipment maximizing yield, advances in harvesting techniques and pest control ) is way different from the machinery of 200 or 100 or 50 years ago. Of course, we vastly overproduce food and throw away insane amounts of food. It is not automation's fault that people go hungry today - blame greed, capitalism, or some other force outside of automation. You can maybe even feed most unemployed people in the US out of the excess food produced without running the supply through food stamps and stores first, but we cannot do that because it would damage our economic system. You can't expect some people to pay profit margins on food and give it to others at cost. BTW this is not a knock on our economic system, goodness knows I'm not a socialist or communist, but sometimes when you say it out loud it is kind of absurd.

[Alatar]

I don't remember us having so many project managers, or HR consultants 30 years ago. The jobs just change. I know the argument is that these are skilled jobs, but honestly, most people with common sense could do them. And we will always need semi-skilled labour. Nobody's built a robot to come and tidy my house for 4 hours for €40 once a week, and I doubt they ever will.

[yovargas]

I will definitely look at that later when I have more time. I find the subject interesting. Two questions about it before I get to it though:

- Does it try to answer what is different now from the past two centuries of machines making human labor obselete?
- Does it look at global statistics or just US numbers?

If the answer to both questions is no, I consider that a fatal flaw to these arguments.

I read the article and as I largely expected, it does not address either of these points. Without trying to factor in that data, frankly, I think the argument is borderline worthless. I will still contend that this is a largely baseless worry based on a couple centuries of vast human progress that were caused by the exact process the article is hand-wringing about.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The GOP has lost both of its challenges to the new, less-gerrymandered congressional district map that was set by the state's supreme court on the same day. The U.S. Supreme Court refused to overturn the state's high court in a one line order and a panel of three federal judges (all appointed by Republican presidents) dismissed the federal lawsuit some legislators filed attempting to overturn the new map on the grounds that they did not have standing. The new map could lead to the Democrats picking up an additional six seats compared to using the old map, which would go a long way towards helping them regain control of the House.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/supre ... spartanntp

[Impenitent]

That's a giant step towards fairness. I hope the process towards an electoral system of greater integrity and equity continues!


Sent from a tiny phone keyboard via Tapatalk - typos inevitable.

[Frelga]

From 538:

There's not any correlation between turnout and how well Democrats are doing in special elections. They're overperforming in both high-turnout and low-turnout elections. https://t.co/zh38Q2t6ab https://t.co/uKwuqBLXh3

I haven't read the linked article, but I did look at the graph.

[Frelga]

Is this an appropriate use of "breaking" or is AP just using the word as punctuation?

BREAKING: AP Source: Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan will not run for re-election.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think it is fairly appropriate usage in this case. Pretty big deal that the speaker of the house who is a relatively young man at 48 and who has only been Speaker for 3 years to not run for reelection, particularly since there is no evidence that he is running for higher office. I can't really recall any similar circumstance.

[Dave_LF]

The two Republicans most likely to replace Ryan are House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (La.).

Surely they mean to say "in the uncertain event that the GOP retains control of the house, the two Republicans most likely to replace Ryan are..." ??

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, even if the Democrats take control of the House, McCarthy and Scalise would still be vying to replace Ryan as the head of the GOP caucus to become Minority Leader.

[River]

Ryan put on a show of reluctance when his name came up as Boehner's replacement. But yes, for him to cut and run right now is a surprise. Then again, if I were facing a guy whose bears the nickname Iron 'Stache in my next election, I might just bail out too.

In all seriousness, though, I'm wondering if he's not throwing in the towel because he intends to allow/lead a Congressional move on the President. It would be political suicide to do that to a POTUS in one's own party, but if he's packing it in he's got nothing to lose.

[Frelga]

Another GOP Congressman, Dennis Ross of FL just announced his retirement.

[Frelga]

And another.

GOP Rep. Charlie Dent will leave Congress within weeks, potentially setting up special election

I thought Charlie Dent was a Batman villain.

[Alatar]

That's his brother Harvey.

[Frelga]

Steve Stern may be a Marvel character, I'm not sure.
Dems flip New York state seat that Republicans have held for nearly four decades

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That's his brother Harvey.

But all Red Sox fans know that the real villain is Bucky.

(Sass and Holby would get that; I'm not sure anyone else will.)